Hollywood Brown Fantasy Hub: Week 16 Injury Update, Start/Sit Advice, Projections, and More

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Houston Texans in Week 16. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Hollywood Brown.

Is Hollywood Brown Playing in Week 16?

Just like his quarterback, Brown also got in a third straight full practice on Wednesday. On Friday, the Chiefs activated Brown from IR, setting the stage for his season debut on Saturday.

We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.

Should You Start or Sit Hollywood Brown in Week 16?

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported over the weekend that Hollywood Brown would be “likely to return during the regular season” from his SC joint injury that has delayed his debut with the team up to this point.

That’s interesting but unlikely to be impactful for our purposes. That’s not to say that he can’t be of service during Kansas City’s pursuit of a third straight championship, but asking the team to overextend him in short order is far too optimistic for my liking.

As a player, Brown carries an obvious upside. I mean, would they let him change his name to “Hollywood” if he didn’t? He caught at least six touchdown passes in all three of his seasons with the Ravens, and while his time with the Cardinals wasn’t fantasy-friendly, he did clear 16 PPR points in three of his first five games.

All of that said, I don’t think we can assume that he fits this offense like a glove before we get a proof of concept. Brown’s production relative to expectation has declined each season of his career; my feeling here is that any usage over the next three weeks will be more of a tune-up than a full reveal.

Brown’s production relative to PPR expectation by season:

• 2019 (Ravens): +19%
• 2020 (Ravens): +6.2%
• 2021 (Ravens): -9.2%
• 2022 (Cardinals): -12.2%
• 2023 (Cardinals): -21.9%

Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

Hollywood Brown’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 16

As of Saturday morning, Brown is projected to score 7.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.1 receptions for 34.1 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.

Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.

PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense

After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.

Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).

This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.

Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.

For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis. 

Hollywood Brown’s Fantasy Ranking

Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25. 

Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings

1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)

Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights

Buffalo Bills

Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).

QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.

• 2021 Jalen Hurts
• 2022 Jalen Hurts
• 2023 Jalen Hurts
• 2023 Josh Allen
• 2024 Josh Allen

No player has had five such games in a season.

Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.

Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.

Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.

Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs

Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.

QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).

Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).

Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).

Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).

Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.