After three years with the Baltimore Ravens and two years with the Arizona Cardinals, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown now joins the Kansas City Chiefs. Following a very underwhelming 2023 season, can Patrick Mahomes help Brown reach new heights in 2024? Is Brown a value in fantasy football drafts?
Hollywood Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
All too often, fantasy managers and NFL fans, in general, have this incredibly optimistic outlook on teams signing or drafting players that fit exactly what they need. It seldom works out that way. But in the case of Brown signing with the Chiefs, it feels like a perfect match.
Ever since Mahomes was anointed starter in 2018, he’s never had two viable wide receivers. Before each of the past two seasons, it was a stretch to even say he had one. Now, Mahomes gets the privilege of pairing Brown with Rashee Rice in what I consider a pretty ideal marriage of skill sets (assuming Rice is playing in 2024).
Last season, Rice was primarily targeted near the line of scrimmage. His 4.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 99th in the league. Nearly 70% of his 938 receiving yards came after the catch.
Brown provides the perfect complement. He is the stretch Z to Rice’s X. Although Brown is definitely more than just a deep threat (his highest aDOT was 13.0 in 2020, 25th in the league), he still has 4.32-second 40-yard dash speed. If one of these receivers is going to burn defenders deep, it’s certainly not Rice.
Marquise Brown what a catch 😈
He now has 4 straight games against the #Bengals with a receiving TD.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 24, 2021
Of course, it’s a little bit concerning that Brown, who should be firmly in his prime, is coming off the worst season of his career, averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game. The good news is we can pretty easily explain it away.
For starters, Brown was without Kyler Murray for half the season. Although he saw a healthy 22.8% target share, his catchable target rate was among the worst in the league. It’s easy to blame bad quarterback play for Brown’s struggles, and that’s exactly what we should do.
Just two years ago, Brown averaged 13.0 fantasy points per game. In 2022, he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game. Now, playing for a Chiefs offense that had a 61% neutral game script pass rate last season (compared to 53% from Arizona), not only should Brown’s quality of target increase but so should the overall volume.
Should You Draft Brown in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Brown’s price in Best Ball drafts is definitely higher than it would have been had he signed somewhere worse. However, it still feels like he might be being a bit undervalued.
Would it really shock anyone if Brown posted a top-30 season? Even merely a top-36 season would be enough for Brown to provide fantasy managers with a positive return on investment.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
Based on the guys going ahead of him, I do understand why Brown is so cheap. There are a lot of talented wide receivers in the NFL right now, so fantasy managers need to use this to their advantage. It’s not that the guys going ahead of him are worse — they’re not — but rather, their chances of outperforming their ADPs aren’t much different than Brown’s.
With Brown, you can get a similar upside for a lower price. As a result, he’s definitely someone I’m looking to select late in Best Ball drafts, especially as a potential stack with Mahomes.