BALTIMORE — The bookends to the Baltimore Ravens’ current three-game losing streak are games decided by a roll of the dice gone wrong. Two weeks after the Ravens went for two and the win — unsuccessfully — in the final moments of regulation against the Steelers instead of kicking an extra point that would have tied the game, John Harbaugh made the same exact decision Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.
Ravens lose to Packers on failed two-point conversion
The result was the same the second time as it was the first: an incomplete pass to Mark Andrews. That play bailed out a Packers defense that blew a late 2-touchdown lead but still escaped M&T Bank Stadium Sunday with a 31-30 victory.
Harbaugh’s failed gambles will be grist for the talk show circuit in the days — and, if the Ravens ultimately miss the playoffs — months to come. But our guess is the criticism will be misguided. That’s not to say Harbaugh didn’t mess up Sunday. He did. But not in the way you might think.
John Harbaugh defends decision to go for two
Before we get into that, let’s allow Harbaugh his say. Harbaugh’s post-game news conference Sunday, as you’d expect, featured a series of pointed questions about his strategy. And also as you’d expect, he didn’t back down from his choice.
“I was just trying to get the win right there,” Harbaugh said. “… I think our chances of winning right there (at the end of regulation) than they were in overtime, maybe, if you calculate it out. But I felt good about it. They made a really good play. Have to give that safety [Darnell Savage] a lot of credit for getting out there and tipping that ball.
“… In both of those cases, it gave us the best chance to win. Because we didn’t win doesn’t make it not true. It’s still true now, just as true as it was then. It just didn’t work out.”
When asked if Harbaugh’s aggressive coaching style (he also went for it on fourth down four times Sunday, failing twice) is a reflection of data or intuition, Harbaugh responded:
“It’s mostly gut. The numbers are the numbers, but the numbers aren’t perfect. I can tell you this, I’ve shot a lot of holes in the numbers with the numbers guys. The numbers are never going to be perfect. You have to take everything into account and make a decision. The numbers are part of it, but the numbers aren’t the main decision.”
John Harbaugh’s real mistake
That’s pretty obvious. Because if Harbaugh had gone by the advanced stats book, he would have done things differently Sunday. The numbers say Harbaugh’s best chance of winning in regulation was to go for two on the Ravens’ penultimate score when they punched in a touchdown to draw within 8 with 4:47 left in regulation.
Had he done that and succeeded, the Ravens would have only needed an extra point after their final touchdown to take the lead. And had they failed on their two-point try, they would have had the opportunity to go for two again on their last TD to tie the game. The odds of two failed two-point conversions are much lower than the odds of one. The game didn’t need to come down to the last play for the Ravens. Harbaugh’s choice to kick down 8 created that urgency.
Good luck explaining that to the Ravens, however, who had no appetite for any arm-chair quarterbacking after Sunday’s game.
“That was THE decision,” Andrews said. “I don’t think there’s anything else. I told Coach that I wouldn’t have it any other way. I think people who second-guess that are wrong. I think it was the right thing to do. We’re an aggressive team.”
Being aggressive, particularly against a superior team, is great. Being aggressive and smart, however, is better.