It’s fantasy football championship week. For those of you not playing this week, I’m sorry! For everyone still chasing that championship, the stakes behind start/sit decision are as high as they will ever be. With Derrick Henry listed as doubtful for Thursday night, should fantasy managers start Tennessee Titans RBs Hassan Haskins or Julius Chestnut against the Cowboys?
Update: Josh Dobbs is expected to start in place of Malik Willis in Week 17.
What Will the Titans’ Backfield Look Like Without Derrick Henry?
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Yes, the Titans listed Henry as doubtful on their final injury report. No one plays through doubtful tags. Henry is not going to play. I say that with the most possible confidence I can.
Entering the season, we knew exactly how the Titans would handle their backfield. It was Henry as the main guy and Dontrell Hilliard on passing downs. If Henry were to miss a game, Hilliard would operate as the lead back.
Unfortunately, Hillard is on IR and done for the season. That leaves the Titans perilously thin behind Henry, with two rookies atop the depth chart. Haskins was a fourth-round pick. Chestnut was a UDFA.
Based on the previous usage, I would give the edge to Haskins as the guy likely to take over as the primary ball carrier. With that said, Haskins has been used on passing downs. There’s a nonzero chance Chestnut takes over the Henry role (albeit with far less volume), and Haskins remains in a satellite back-plus role.
In Week 13, Chestnut handled five carried in a game where Haskins was inactive. Since Haskins returned in Week 15, he’s played about 20% of the offensive snaps. Chestnut has played literally one.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Haskins or Chestnut?
If I absolutely had to start one, it would have to be Haskins. He’s played more this season, which indicates he’s ahead of Chestnut and more likely to receive more work.
At the same time, the Titans owe nothing to either of these backs. If Chestnut checks in and runs well, he could easily end up with more touches than Haskins.
The Titans are double-digit home underdogs against the Cowboys. Their odds of making the playoffs with a win Thursday night and a loss against the Jaguars are so close to zero they might as well be zero.
The Titans will play the Jaguars in Week 18 for the division. The loser of that game will miss the playoffs. As a result, the outcome of this game means nothing for the Titans.
MORE: Week 17 RB Start/Sit Advice
We have a team rolling out a backup quarterback in Malik Willis, who is clearly not ready to be in NFL games. It’s a game that does not matter. Taking the lowers on all Titans on Underdog Fantasy might not be a bad idea.
The Cowboys allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. This is a game where the Titans may struggle to even get first downs. Even if they go down early and by a large amount, they may not abandon the run in an effort to come back. They may be content to just run the ball, punt, and get out of dodge.
While the volume may be there for Haskins (or Chestnut), there’s very little in the way of touchdown upside. At best, maybe you get 50-70 total yards and a handful of receptions. Outside of the deepest of leagues, do not start anyone on the Titans Thursday night.