The two top running backs on the Los Angeles Chargers have a lot in common. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are both former Baltimore Ravens, and they’ve both recovered from devastating knee injuries.
With each receiving a fresh start in L.A., which RB should fantasy football managers start in Week 1 for the 2024 season?
Should You Start Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins This Week?
By all accounts, head coach Jim Harbaugh wants his team to be run-heavy. Everywhere he’s gone, whether it be San Francisco or Michigan, Harbaugh’s teams have been at or near the top in run rate.
The problem with Harbaugh’s plan is typically, teams that lean heavily on the run have better running backs.
That’s not meant to be an insult to Edwards or Dobbins — they are both capable backs. However, each projects as more of a complementary piece rather than potentially the main guy.
Perhaps this can work in their favor, as Edwards is more of a straight-line power runner, while Dobbins, at least before the injuries, was a dynamic slasher back with a better receiving profile.
Given Edwards’ age and lack of history of success, plus Dobbins’ lengthy significant injury track ledger, neither is viewed as a particularly appealing fantasy asset. That meant both were quite cheap in fantasy drafts.
Heading into Week 1, the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer does not view either as a fantasy starter. Edwards is projected for 8.3 fantasy points, while Dobbins is at 6.8. Neither of those numbers is good enough to justify in fantasy lineups.
Fantasy managers likely drafted Edwards as their RB3, at best, and Dobbins as their RB4, at best.
In Week 1, with everyone healthy, it is unlikely anyone needs to start a Chargers back. The best approach is to see how these backs are utilized and whether Dobbins looks like the guy who averaged 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie.
Edwards’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
The last time the Chargers and Raiders met, things got ugly. Feelings were hurt, coaches were fired, and it was an all-around bad time for the Chargers.
This year’s Chargers team is completely revamped. In addition to a new coaching staff, the team has two new wide receivers and three new running backs. Any application of last year’s data should be done with a large grain of salt.
That said, we don’t have much to go on beyond last season. Last year, the Chargers’ offensive line did its running backs no favors.
Per TruMedia, the Chargers generated just 1.08 yards before contact last season. That’s especially problematic for a guy like Edwards, who isn’t exactly elusive.
Edwards doesn’t make defenders miss. Rather, he hits the hole and runs forward, getting what is blocked. If nothing is blocked, Edwards isn’t going very far.
Last season, the Ravens averaged 1.89 yards before contact. Unless the Chargers’ line experiences significant improvement, Edwards could be in for a rude awakening. He has never known anything other than running behind a good offensive line that benefits from Lamar Jackson freezing defenders.
This week, Edwards faces a much-improved Raiders defense under defensive-minded head coach Antonio Pierce.
This game has a low total and projects to be relatively ugly. While that means volume is potentially there for Edwards, we don’t know what the split with Dobbins will look like.
Edwards is a pure touchdown-or-bust RB3 this week.
Dobbins’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
As uncertain as Edwards’ workload is, double that for Dobbins. There’s so much we don’t know about the once-talented back who has struggled since tearing multiple ligaments in his knee and also his Achilles.
Can Dobbins get his explosiveness back? What will it look like in Week 1? Is he the primary receiving back, or will that job go to rookie Kimani Vidal?
Given how little we know about Dobbins’ role, there’s no reason to roll the dice in Week 1. It’s more likely fantasy managers drop Dobbins on Tuesday than view him as a potential starting option.
This is a situation where neither back is particularly exciting. Leave both on the bench this week.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Edwards and Dobbins in Week 1
Gus Edwards: The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.
No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.
If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.
No, not for this game – for the month of September.
There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.
The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.
But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.
J.K. Dobbins: When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game. The theory behind drafting him late this summer was sound in that it’s cheap exposure to a run-centric offense that lacks backfield depth chart clarity, but you’re very much playing the long game.
As long as Dobbins exits this game healthy, he should very much remain rostered, albeit with the understanding that he’s not a lineup option until we see him carve out a 10+ touch role on a consistent basis.