As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Gus Edwards’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Heading into the 2021 season, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards formed one of the NFL’s most potent backfields. Dobbins was coming off a rookie campaign in which he averaged a blistering 6.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Edwards had just wrapped up his third consecutive season with 5.0+ yards per carry.
Then in late August, Dobbins suffered a torn ACL, knocking him out for the year. The following week, presumed No. 3 RB Justice Hill tore his Achilles. And about a week later, Edwards tore his ACL. Just like that, the Ravens had to scramble to assemble an almost entirely new backfield.
For fantasy managers — particularly those in dynasty — it was a once-in-a-generation series of events. Those three RBs were expected to carry about 98% of the backfield load in 2021, and they assuredly would remain productive in the coming years. But when they returned for the 2022 season, there were a lot of question marks surrounding how they’d each respond post-surgery.
In some ways, it was particularly tough sledding for Edwards, who didn’t return to the field in 2022 until Week 7. A hamstring injury sidelined him in Weeks 9 and 10. A knee injury nagged him for much of the season.
And yet he persevered, rumbling for 433 yards on 87 rushing attempts — his fourth straight 5.0+ ypc campaign. He maintained a near-elite broken-tackle rate and was able to handle double-digit carries five times.
The challenge from a fantasy perspective is three-fold. He’s a 28-year-old RB who’s played barely half a season in the last two-and-a-half years, his usage in the passing game is almost non-existent, and he’s firmly behind Dobbins on the depth chart.
On the first issue, he certainly proved last year that he can still play at a high level. However, the Ravens have to be careful with him. The younger Hill played just as well last season in his return to the field. Baltimore can afford to sit Edwards if he’s not near 100%. That’s good news for his longevity but bad news for fantasy managers who want consistent usage from their starters.
The second issue is a bigger matter. Edwards is almost entirely TD-dependent in fantasy. Throughout his career, he has averaged roughly one reception for every three games. If he doesn’t score, he’s not likely to collect more than six fantasy points.
Third, Dobbins was simply stellar last year. It took some time, but eventually, he found his footing. And when he did, he played like an elite running back.
As long as Dobbins is out there, Edwards will play second fiddle at best. If he can muster 14+ games, Edwards should be able to amass 550+ yards and perhaps three or four scores. Maybe he’ll tack on a 7-110-1 receiving line.
He’s a valuable offensive contributor. But he’s simply not trustworthy in fantasy.
Should You Draft Gus Edwards This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Edwards with an ADP of RB57. No surprises here. Edwards peaked in 2020 thanks to six touchdowns and a career-best 723 rushing yards, along with a 9-123-0 receiving line. But that was barely enough to elevate him into the top 40 among fantasy RBs.
While he should finish inside the top 60 this season, his ranking implies a relatively low ceiling compared to other 1B running backs. If Dobbins goes down, Edwards might tack on five to seven more carries per game. But he probably won’t do much more through the air.
So there’s not a “boom” element here. His realistic ceiling is around RB45. While that makes him a bargain in a literal sense, there are plenty of other fringe draftable RBs who could become weekly 14+ point contributors down the stretch if they take over the starting job. Those selecting Edwards cannot reasonably hope for the same success.