Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards has been an efficient straight-line runner for his entire career. Now two years removed from his torn ACL, can Edwards be more than just J.K. Dobbins’ backup? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Gus Edwards’ Fantasy Outlook
If you look strictly at Edwards’ final numbers, there’s nothing really to be impressed by from a fantasy perspective. He averaged 8.0 PPR fantasy points per game in 2018 and 2020, the two best seasons of his career. He’s never been more than a fantasy RB4 — someone you throw on your bench and start in a pinch, knowing he won’t get you zero.
For a former UDFA, Edwards has already had an incredibly impressive career. He projected as a straight-line plodder — a “three yards and a cloud of dust” runner. Instead, he’s actually been one of the most efficient backs in the league.
Edwards has never averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry in a single season in his career. Last year, he averaged an impressive 1.93 yards created per touch, which is fantastic for a guy who doesn’t have much in the way of elusiveness. Edwards runs straight, and he does it very well.
The problem with Edwards, from a fantasy perspective, is there’s just very little upside.
Edwards provides absolutely nothing in the passing game. He has 24 targets over his entire career. He will never be featured as a receiver. There’s no point in even assessing his receiving work. All of Edwards’ fantasy points need to come from rushing. That already lowers his ceiling and makes it more difficult for him to reach his floor.
Edwards has spent most of his career backing up Mark Ingram or Dobbins. But he has had games where he either started or saw enough work that it was as if he was the starter.
We have 29 games in which Edwards saw fewer than 10 carries and 23 games in which he saw at least 10 carries. In the former group, Edwards averaged just 5.5 carries and 4.8 ppg. In the latter group, Edwards averaged 14.8 carries and 10.3 ppg.
Unsurprisingly, more volume means better productivity. But I would hardly call 10.3 ppg enough. Those are low-RB3 numbers.
Essentially, Edwards is unstartable when he’s the backup but has a low-RB3 ceiling in the event of an injury/game script that enables him to see more volume.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Edwards at His ADP?
Edwards currently has an RB57 ADP, No. 185 overall. Fantasy managers aren’t overly excited about drafting Dobbins’ backup, as the gap between the two is quite large (Dobbins has an RB18 ADP).
I’m not sure the gap should be that large, but more because Dobbins might be going a bit too high rather than Edwards going too low. Of course, at an RB58 cost, if Edwards were to emerge into a low-RB3 option, that’s a tremendous value.
Any fantasy manager would take that as the final running back on their roster. As a result, it’s hard to argue against taking a shot on Edwards because he doesn’t cost anything.
At the same time, even if Dobbins were to get hurt, Edwards would still be part of a committee. He’s never going to be more than a 50% snap share guy, and he’s never going to be able to supplement his production with any receiving work. The only way Edwards is giving you even so much as RB3 production is if he scores.
Given the Ravens’ offseason moves and all the reports they plan on throwing more, plus Lamar Jackson stealing goal-line work, Edwards is not the type of dart I like to throw late in fantasy drafts.
Edwards is free. So, I can’t really criticize any pick that late. But there are other players with higher upside than Edwards worth chasing, even in the final rounds of your fantasy drafts.