If you’re looking for Week 6 XFL Orlando Guardians vs. DC Defenders odds, picks, and predictions for this important Saturday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Guardians vs. Defenders Week 7 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Guardians vs. Defenders are as of the evening of Wednesday, March 29, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Guardians (+9.5)
- Moneyline: Guardians (+350), Defenders (-435)
- Over/Under: 44 (-110)
Guardians vs. Defenders Picks and Predictions
Full disclosure as always: I went 3-1 last week on point spreads, 3-1 on moneylines, and 3-1 on over/unders. Since Week 3, that puts me at 23-9 on combined point spreads and moneylines. And after languishing most of the season on over/unders, I’m now 6-2 since Week 5.
Let’s see if we can keep things going in Week 7.
Speaking of the number “seven,” an Orlando loss would make them 0-7, and a DC victory would make them 7-0. This is, logically, one of the most lopsided contests in XFL history. It features a winless team giving up the league’s most points (178) versus an undefeated squad that’s scored the most points (171).
For context, the Guardians are giving up 10.6 more points per game than the rest of the league combined. Meanwhile, the Defenders are averaging 9.3 more points per game than the rest of the league combined.
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I could go on. You don’t need me to. Whether you’re a long-time XFL follower or new to the league, this game seems cut-and-dry. DC just dismantled the second-best team. Surely they can handle Orlando.
Well, let’s be contrarian for a minute. How might the Guardians keep this one close? For starters, it helps that Quinten Dormady is now (seemingly) entrenched as their starting QB, replacing the disappointing Paxton Lynch. It’s not Lynch’s fault. He did the best he could. But with Dormady at the helm, Cody Latimer and Charleston Rambo have reached the next level.
In fact, Latimer is No. 3 in the XFL in receptions and No. 2 in receiving yards. And the talented Rambo was sitting on a dismal 4-33-0 receiving line through Week 3. He’s now No. 10 in receptions and receiving yards. Yeah, he’s started to make good on his high draft capital.
As for the frequently middling backfield (not bad for a winless team, but still, middling ain’t great), Devin Darrington came out of nowhere last week, rushing for 82 yards and two scores. Has he replaced Jah-Maine Martin atop the depth chart? We’re about to find out.
The key takeaway is that Orlando’s offense is good. Quite good. Probably No. 4 or No. 5 in the eight-team XFL. That’s solid for an 0-6 franchise.
As alluded to above, the problem is their D. They’ve forced only four turnovers while sacking the opposing QB 10 times. By contrast, their offense has suffered through 12 turnovers and 23 sacks.
So what if the Guardians had taken better care of the ball starting in Week 1? Would that have put less pressure on their defense, resulting in fewer points yielded? Quite possibly. After all, they’ve surrendered only the fifth-most yards per contest. Opponents have dominated more by scoring (in part due to favorable field position after turnovers) than by sustaining long drives.
If the Dormady-led Guardians come out hot — which is entirely possible — then they have a narrow path to ending their slide and upending the (until now) invincible Defenders.
But this is a long shot because DC’s running game remains elite. No, not just “elite.” There has to be a better word. They’re averaging a stellar 4.5 yards per carry, thanks largely to Abram Smith and dynamic QB Jordan Ta’amu.
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Smith is No. 1 in the league in rushing yards, and his 102 carries total is 40 more than the second-most active running back (Brian Hill). Ta’amu is No. 6 in rushing yards. Together with Ryquell Armstead, this trio has amassed 48 rushing first downs. That’s more than double DC’s opponents’ rushing first downs.
As I’ve written for weeks, DC will keep winning until/unless someone figures out how to slow their running game. While Ta’amu is a capable passer, and while Lucky Jackson has stepped up as DC’s No. 1 wideout, the aerial game isn’t their strength. It’s pounding the ball on the ground and wearing down the other defense.
And this approach has worked pretty flawlessly. It helps that the Defenders boast one of the top defenses. As we saw on Monday night, their D frequently is a game-changer.
I cannot in good conscience bet on Orlando to cover, despite the lofty point spread. Yes, I’m a big believer in their offense these days, as the shift from Lynch to Dormady has helped transform them into a competitive team. However, they don’t have the personnel to stymie the Defenders’ game plan.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Defenders (-9.5)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Defenders (-435)
- Over/Under: Under 44 (-110)