The Green Bay Packers face off against the NFC West divisional favorite San Francisco 49ers in Week 3. While the Aaron Rodgers/Bay Area connection will surely be brought up (as it always seems to be when these two teams play one another), we’re more interested in seeing who wins this game. However, the more important takeaways from this game might be whether the Packers can improve and if the 49ers are for real.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers: Packers offense vs. 49ers defense
After finishing first in offensive efficiency in 2020, the Packers are off to a much slower start in 2021. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s defense has performed well outside of a few minutes late in their Week 1 game against the Lions. Who has the advantage in each positional battle?
Aaron Rodgers vs. 49ers defense
We’re talking about last year’s league MVP against a defense now without cornerback Jason Verrett. Josh Norman hasn’t been the stud he was in Washington since… well, it’s been about five years. He’s not great, Bob! On the opposite side, rookie cornerback Deommodore Lenoir got let off easy in San Francisco’s first two matchups.
Rodgers has a clear advantage, especially facing a defense without Verrett. However, San Francisco’s safety duo is far better than they’re given credit for. The 49ers deploy Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt in a multitude of alignments and assignments. They’ll play the run from the box, cover in the slot, handle the back end in two-high looks, and play as single-high free safeties.
After Week 1, Rodgers’ issues against those two-safety looks were a topic of conversation. Heck, some even talked about him conspiring against the organization! But Detroit lived in that look during Week 2, and Rodgers nearly posted a perfect passer rating.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
Packers weapons vs. 49ers defensive backs
This feels like a main card event in the UFC, but not a championship battle. Davante Adams is one of — if not the — best receivers in the NFL. However, aside from him, the receiving corps is underwhelming and bordering on unserviceable.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has caught 3 of 12 targets for just 17 yards on the season. No other Packers wide receiver has more than 4 targets through two games. Adams is clearly the premier wide receiver in Green Bay’s passing attack, but luckily, Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan are massive parts of the Packers’ offense.
We’ve already gone over most of San Francisco’s secondary. Cornerback play could be cause for concern. But the 49ers also have the NFL’s best coverage linebacker in Fred Warner, and both of their safeties can play.
The presence of Rodgers might make it appear as though Green Bay’s weapons have the advantage over San Francisco’s secondary, but outside of Adams, the 49ers can hold their own.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
Packers offensive line vs. 49ers front seven
This might be the biggest matchup in the game. Can Green Bay’s offensive line survive San Francisco’s pass rush comprised of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Javon Kinlaw? Things are a bit more difficult without superstar left tackle and beer-drinking magician David Bakhtiari. However, the Packers have the biggest luxury in the entire NFL — Elgton Jenkins plays on their football team.
Jenkins has played everywhere on the offensive line, and he’s done so at an incredibly high level. He’s a unicorn. Bosa lines up on the left side of the offense for most of his snaps, so that’s one matchup the Packers and Jenkins can assume they’ll survive.
The more considerable problem for the Packers early this season has been their inability to run the football effectively. They’ve been a bottom-10 unit so far in 2021. Conversely, San Francisco’s run defense ranks in the middle of the pack. I can’t imagine Jones stays inefficient as a runner for long.
ADVANTAGE: Push
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers: Packers defense vs. 49ers offense
So far in 2021, Green Bay’s defense has looked impossibly bad. The unit ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, proving poor against both the run and pass. San Francisco’s offense has been excellent so far, ranking highly in passing efficiency while being a middle-of-the-pack rushing attack through two games.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Packers defense
Jimmy Garoppolo is going to miss throws most NFL quarterbacks should make. But he’s also a magician as a ball-handler, which will aid the deception that is so crucial to San Francisco’s offense.
He’s also quite adept at maneuvering around in the pocket and creating throwing hallways. The Packers have struggled to generate pressure or cover receivers, so Garoppolo could have an advantage here. The one question I have — will the 49ers actually test Kevin King or Eric Stokes downfield?
Thus far in 2021, Garoppolo has only attempted 2 passes of 20+ yards. The Packers have looked horrible defending this pass, so Jimmy G could look to strike downfield on Sunday Night Football.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
49ers weapons vs. Packers defensive backs
While Deebo Samuel has been excellent through two games, I am concerned the third-year wide receiver could struggle against the Packers. Jaire Alexander is a gnat — he’ll be in Samuel’s face all day. However, given how much of Samuel’s production comes from schemed passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, I’m not biting my fingernails about his performance.
Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are talented enough to survive a matchup against George Kittle, but they certainly shouldn’t be favored. Kittle is a freight train with the ball in his hands. Add in Green Bay’s lack of linebacker talent, and we’re looking at a one-way street of dominance here.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
49ers offensive line vs. Packers front seven
Kenny Clark and Preston Smith are both great football players, but Green Bay’s front seven leaves far too much to be desired as a unit. Through two games, they’ve gotten little pressure on the quarterback at all.
That doesn’t bode well against a 49ers offensive line that’s been fantastic so far. They’ve only allowed 1 sack of Garoppolo. Outside of right tackle Mike McGlinchey and occasionally center Alex Mack, no one else on the OL is allowing pressure.
Trent Williams is the best offensive tackle in the NFL. And when a quarterback doesn’t have to worry at all about his blindside, his confidence soars.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
Betting line and game prediction
Currently, the San Francisco 49ers are a 3-point favorite against the Green Bay Packers. When looking at the matchups, the 49ers have a clear advantage in every single category but one. However, Green Bay’s trump card is Rodgers, arguably the most talented quarterback of all time.
Still, the Packers’ defense has struggled to the point where I don’t feel confident in their ability to consistently force fourth downs. As such, the 50-point over/under feels a tad low, especially given that this feels like a “first to 30” game.
The Packers were my Super Bowl pick, but that seems like a long shot unless their defense can step up.
49ers: 31
Packers: 28