The Green Bay Packers have had a solid season but still find themselves as the seven seed because of playing in the league’s toughest division. At 11-6, the Packers went 1-5 against the NFC North and 10-1 against everyone else. That one loss came in week one to the Philadelphia Eagles 34-29.
The Eagles have quietly been one of the league’s best teams this year. The offensive line is playing great, Saquon Barkley will almost assuredly finish in the top two for offensive player of the year, and the defense has been much improved this season with several breakout players leading the charge.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles -4.5 - Moneyline
Eagles (-230); Packers (+190) - Over/Under
45.5 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
Lincoln Financial Field
Packers vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Packers rank eighth in offensive EPA (expected points added), 13th in success rate, fourth in explosive passing rate, and fifth in explosive rushing rate. Led by PFN’s 13th-ranked quarterback in our QB+ metric, Jordan Love has delivered this offense to a top-10 finish by most metrics despite the somewhat underwhelming play from him this season.
As a whole, Love never graded higher than a B in our system and only managed a top-50 game just once this season. Injured or not, he also never received lower than a C- in grading either. Love ranked third in EPA among 44 quarterbacks on early downs. Unfortunately, their 41.2% pass rate on first and second down dropped them to eighth in EPA on early downs.
This is not a result of the run game not working, as they rank fifth in yards per rush on first and second down to pair with Josh Jacobs being one of the best running backs this season. It’s just much more efficient passing the ball than it is running. Nevertheless, their early down success set them up well for third downs, averaging the fifth-lowest yards to go on third downs.
The Green Bay offensive line has played well this season. They rank third in quick pressure rate allowed, which adjusts for the team’s time to throw and the fact that they are blitzed more than anyone else at 33% of drop backs. When blitzed, they rank ninth in pressure rate allowed.
Even though the offensive line has been rock solid against the blitz, Love has not been. The Packers rank 26th in EPA when blitzed, with an abysmal 39.77 EPA lost to turnovers on blitzes (32nd). Love is tied for first with six interceptions against the blitz this season. The Eagles rank 14th in pressure rate and 28th in defensive EPA when blitzing. Not something they are effective at taking advantage of.
What the Eagles do well on defense is run their base scheme, getting pressure with four and playing zone or man coverage behind it. They rank second in defensive EPA this season, with splits of first and second in man and zone coverage respectively. Having the ability to run both effectively adds to the level of difficulty for an opposing offense as they don’t have a clear mismatch to exploit.
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This might change in the matchup with Green Bay as Love and the Packers struggle much more against man than zone. They rank 21st in EPA against man and fifth in EPA against zone. In Week 1, Love wasn’t nearly as bad as is typical against man, going six of 10 for 45 yards and a touchdown against it. It would be wise of Philadelphia to try again, given what we have seen this season. They must make sure to do it without blitzing, though.
The Eagles struggle against athletic quarterbacks, ranking 24th in defensive EPA on scrambles, 20th on designed quarterback runs, and 22nd on plays outside of the pocket. Green Bay is not in position to take advantage of that, ranking 16th outside of the pocket and ninth in scrambles but are bottom five in scramble rate.
Green Bay has also gotten underrated and seldom talked about play from their defense this season, ranking fourth in defensive EPA, 22nd in success rate, 12th in explosive pass rate allowed, and ninth in explosive rush rate allowed. The defense will need to continue the trend of limiting explosive rushes against Barkley and the Eagles, who rank second in runs of 10 or more yards at 4.5 per game.
While Green Bay’s defense limits the explosive, they have to get better at tackling. They rank 15th in yards after contact allowed, giving up 86 rushing yards to Barkley in week one, after contact. Barkley’s 3.58 yards per rush after contact was the third-highest mark in a single game this season. He ranks 17th in that category over the season.
Despite ranking only 13th in pressure generated, the Packers rank first in defensive EPA when getting pressure. Pairing this with the fact that they only blitz on 17.3% of opposing dropbacks (29th); it’s quite impressive they are able to generate this much havoc.
Love against the blitz is equivalent to Jalen Hurts under pressure this season. Philly ranks 25th in offensive EPA when pressured versus third when not pressured. With the second-longest time to throw in football, it’s hard to blame the offensive line for leading the league in pressure rate allowed. But even adjusting for time to throw, Philadelphia has the third-highest quick pressure rate allowed this season at 22%.
It’s hard to believe the offensive line has performed this poorly in the pass game given how dominant they are in the run game and how well both Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata have played this season. The interior offensive line ranks 99th, 120th, and 132nd out of 189 offensive linemen with over 200 pass blocking snaps in pressure per block allowed. Dead last in this stat is backup offensive tackle Fred Johnson.
Overall, I think this game will come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes. Both defenses are playing well and both offenses are good but have clear weaknesses. The Packers are more equipped to take advantage of the Philadelphia weaknesses and for that reason, I am going to take Green Bay in the upset.
My pick: Packers ML (+190)