The NFL’s best team — the Arizona Cardinals — might also be the most underexposed. The Cardinals have gone 7-0 without a single prime-time game. That indignity will, at last, be rectified Thursday night when Kyler Murray and the Cardinals host the 6-1 Green Bay Packers.
The Cardinals haven’t just beaten teams. They’ve wrecked them. Five of their seven wins have come by double digits, including a 31-5 thumping of the Houston Texans last Sunday. But if Arizona’s the hottest team in football, Green Bay isn’t far behind. The Packers have reeled off six straight wins after a Week 1 loss. Here’s how this Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers matchup lines up.
Green Bay Packers offense vs. Arizona Cardinals defense
Guess this is just how it’s going to be for the Packers on offense in 2021. It won’t always be pretty. It’ll rarely be easy. But with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, it might just be enough. Green Bay beat the Washington Football Team on Sunday despite getting outgained by 138 yards on the ground. That’s not a new phenomenon. Of the five NFC teams with one or no losses, the Packers have the worst average yard differential (+6.4).
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The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deserving of every bit of their record. They utterly took Houston apart in Week 6, limiting the Texans to 160 yards, 8 first downs, and zero red-zone trips. Sunday was the fifth time this season they’ve held an opponent under 20 points, a big reason why the Cardinals — through Sunday’s games — rank first in scoring defense (16.3).
Aaron Rodgers vs. Cardinals defense
The Packers’ general organizational philosophy is basically to keep the game close enough for Rodgers to win. Considering he’s 132-64-1 as a starter in his career, that’s not a terrible approach. But it puts enormous pressure on one player, and if that player is off, the team has basically no chance. Rodgers, through Sunday’s games, ranked third in QBR (66.2), fifth in EPA/play (.254), seventh in passer rating (108.2), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.7).
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So it’ll be strength vs. strength Sunday, as the Cardinals have made great quarterbacks look mortal this year and mortal quarterbacks look like high schoolers. Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the year to date against Arizona, with season-lows in passer rating (89.5), yards per attempt (6.7), and touchdowns (2). Their defense ranks first in third-down efficiency (28.8%), third in both passing yards allowed per game (201) and per attempt (6.0), fourth in yards per game (316.7), and seventh in yards per play (5.3).
Advantage: Push
Packers weapons vs. Cardinals defensive backs
The Packers placed Davante Adams on the COVID-19 list Monday, which is a huge deal because he’s basically their entire passing game. Wide receiver Allen Lazard is on the reserve/COVID-19 list and is out too. Adams has 558 more yards on the season than any other Packer — a truly absurd stat — and Aaron Jones has gotten more than half of Green Bay’s carries. Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers and Equanimeous St. Brown were the only available wide receivers as of Tuesday afternoon.
Byron Murphy was the first pick of the second round in the 2019 draft. But among cornerbacks selected that year, he’s second-to-none. Murphy leads the Cardinals with 3 interceptions, and his 7 pass breakups were tied for ninth through Sunday’s games. The Cardinals also have a good one in Robert Alford (56.7% completions allowed, 4.5 yards per target), who should be taking snaps away from Marco Wilson (147.8 passer rating against). Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are a solid but not spectacular safety duo.
Advantage: Cardinals
Packers offensive line vs. Cardinals defensive front
The Packers are close to having their preferred O-line lineup, with David Bakhtiari practicing last week for the first time since tearing his ACL on New Year’s Eve. So it’s possible that both Bakhtiari and center Josh Myers (who’s currently on IR) could both be back for the stretch run. That’ll be a welcome development for a Packers offense that has been below average in rushing efficiency (4.2 yards per carry) and pass protection (7.5% sack rate).
The Cardinals likewise played at less than full strength in Week 7. Chandler Jones caught COVID-19 and couldn’t play against the Texans. He should be back in the lineup Thursday night. Even without him, Arizona’s pass rush was diminished (aside from linebacker Markus Golden, who had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hits). The run defense was just fine, however, limiting Houston to 2.8 yards per carry — a marked improvement for a defense that ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.0). J.J. Watt, who has 5 tackles for loss and 10 QB hits, on the season, will not play due to injury.
Advantage: Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense
Kliff Kingsbury slander will no longer be tolerated. He’s not only over .500 for his NFL coaching career, but Kingsbury is running the offense he envisioned when he made Kyler Murray the first pick of his first draft. Sunday marked the sixth time in seven weeks the Cardinals scored 30 or more points. Arizona is not only excellent down-to-down (averaging 6.1 yards per play), they’re very good in situational football (eighth in third-down pickups, seventh in red-zone efficiency).
The Packers, meanwhile, struggle defensively on third downs (42.9%) and in the red zone (nearly four in five trips by their opponents have ended in touchdowns). But they have made up for it by forcing the seventh-most turnovers in the league (11) through Sunday’s games. Plus, Green Bay’s general metrics are mostly good (5.4 yards per play allowed).
Kyler Murray vs. Packers defense
Murray’s topline stats — third in passer rating (116.8), fourth in QBR (65.1), fifth in yards per attempt (9.0) — are great because he’s doing the less noticeable things well. His completion rate is 9.7 percentage points over expectation. He has one of the lowest bad throw rates (9.4%) in football. And he’s helped by a bunch of really reliable receivers who have dropped just 2.8% of their targets.
Murray has made year-over-year improvements in intended air yards per pass attempt (8.0 in 2021) and completed air yards per completion (6.7). Also, good luck getting to him. The ball is out of his hands in an average of 2.0 seconds.
That final stat makes this next one all the more alarming for Green Bay. The Packers’ hurry rate (7.3%) is sixth-worst in football. That’s a big reason Green Bay is bad on third downs. And yet, the Packers are still seventh in total defense (331.4 yards per game), 10th in defensive efficiency (5.4 yards per play), and eighth in scoring defense (20.9 points).
Advantage: Murray
Cardinals weapons vs. Packers defensive backs
DeAndre Hopkins has had better statistical days (7 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown), but he’s probably not had more rewarding days. Hopkins helped the Cardinals blow the doors off of the team that thought it wise to trade him away for 20 cents on the dollar. Hopkins seems just fine with his production being down — because the Cardinals are winning. He’s being thrown the ball just 6.7 times per game. Diversification has been good for Arizona’s offense. A.J. Green and Christian Kirk are both over 400 yards on the season.
Green Bay’s pass defense seems to be surviving just fine without Jaire Alexander. In the three games since he got hurt, opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83.1 and are averaging 7 yards an attempt. A big part of that is due to the play of Eric Stokes, who’s been everything the Packers hoped he would be when they took him in the first round this year. Stokes has allowed just 55.6% of passes thrown his way for a rating of 70.7.
Advantage: Push
Cardinals offensive line vs. Packers defensive front
Here’s a cause for concern with Arizona’s offensive line: Murray, as we mentioned previously, gets the ball out faster than almost any other quarterback. And yet, the Cardinals still have a below-average sack rate (7.2%). Yes, the rushing output is good (136.6 yards per game), but Arizona is not super efficient. It won’t get any better with Rodney Hudson (ribs/shoulder) on injured reserve.
Plus, Green Bay’s defensive front has to feel like a bunch of superheroes after not one but two goal-line stands against Washington. WFT went for touchdowns on fourth down twice and were stopped on each occasion. In all, the Packers limited Washington to 10 points despite six WFT trips inside the 30. That’s incredible. It’s also probably not sustainable. The Packers still rank 30th in yards per carry (4.9), although they are sixth in sack rate (7.5%). It’s a by-committee approach, too. Rashan Gary leads the Packers with 3.5 sacks.
Advantage: Packers
Betting line and game prediction
In case we’ve been too subtle, let’s spell it out: The Packers are a decent team with a great quarterback. The Cardinals are a really good team with a potential MVP. Arizona -6.5, which is where the line stood Tuesday, seems about right to us.
Prediction: Cardinals 35, Packers 28