The Green Bay Packers will face the Chicago Bears in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jordan Love, QB
If I asked you how many top-10 finishes Jordan Love has at the position this season for the 6-3 Packers, what answer would you give me?
Even with two missed games, I’m guessing you’d give him a 50% hit rate, three or four of his seven starts, but the answer is just two. He’s thrown an interception in every game this season, the rushing is all but gone, and in the two weeks before the Week 10 bye, none of his 61 passes resulted in a touchdown.
I still think Love is on the starting radar for the remainder of the season, and maybe the off week will allow him to get closer to full strength. However, he’s nothing more than a fringe option in this divisional matchup.
Chicago’s sack rate has been gradually improving this season, and when Love is under duress, his passer rating has regressed by 36% from 2023. Among pocket passes, something that I’m labeling Love as until proven otherwise, Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LV), Jared Goff (vs. JAX), and Brock Purdy (vs. SEA) rank well ahead of him this week; I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to stream Russell Wilson (vs. BAL) as a one-week option.
To be clear — Love is a fantasy starter you can feel fine about for your playoffs: the Packers get the Seahawks, Saints, and Vikings to close the fantasy season.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs entered the Week 10 bye having overachieved in a significant way in three straight weeks (58.5 PPR fantasy points with a 44.2-point expectation). With our custom elusive rating screaming, Green Bay’s bellcow seems to be poised to put fantasy teams on his back for the second half of the season.
Chicago’s defense as a whole has been good for over a calendar year now, but they rank among the cellar dwellers in terms of yards per carry allowed after contact, and that profiles as a problem against an offense that can spread you out with a variety of viable pass catchers.
We’ve seen running backs without the benefit of offensive balance produce in this spot (Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard combined for 44 PPR points against the Bears, 26.3% over expectation), and with Jacobs rested off the bye, I see no reason why he should be labeled as anything other than a rock-solid starter.
His usage in the passing game has been spotty, but with Green Bay favored, a fifth game this season with 18+ carries is very much in play. That should be enough to justify my confidence in him.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB
MarShawn Lloyd has been designated for return (ankle) and that gives the Packers a three-week window to activate the rookie. I think he can be additive to their postseason dreams, but asking him to matter in fantasy circles is a lot.
Not only has Josh Jacobs enjoyed plenty of success through 10 weeks, Emanuel Wilson (4.6 yards per carry with a 75% catch rate) has had a positive impact. Lloyd might work his way into the RB2 role in this offense, but the fact that it’s a conversation means that we’d be looking at a committee situation if Jacobs were to go down.
At this point in the season, I’m only rostering players in a spot to produce now or step into a meaningful role should a single injury occur – Lloyd doesn’t check either box in my eyes.
Christian Watson, WR
A player with the skill set of Christian Watson (27 end-zone targets in 31 career games) in an offense we grade with top-10 upside is always going to be of interest to me when it comes to stashing. However, I can’t get behind starting him in any capacity until we see some proof of concept.
The volume has been acceptable of late (15 targets over his past three games). Watson’s never been a high-opportunity earner, and with just 87 yards and zero touchdowns to show for it, I can’t get there in a less-than-ideal matchup.
The Bears are attacked downfield with one of the 10 highest opponent average depth of throws, but with a top-five mark in preventing end-zone completions, I worry that we don’t get the single big play that we need for Watson to finish as a top-30 wide receiver.
The Green Bay burner has yet to have a game with 12 expected PPR points this season. Keep Watson rostered since he offers as much upside as anyone in this range moving forward with the bye week now in the rearview. But nothing in his profile justifies a ton of Week 11 confidence.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
The logic behind projecting a breakout season for Dontayvion Wicks this preseason was solid. It looked good early with a 59.5% snap share through the first five weeks. However, with that rate tanking to 34.5%, there isn’t enough in the way of opportunity to consider trotting him out there as a Flex play in anything but a desperation spot.
That said, Wicks should remain rostered due to the touchdown equity. We know this Packers offense frequents the red zone, and he’s as good a bet as any to see looks in scoring position (end-zone target in three of his past four games and he earned four such looks in the Week 4 loss to the Vikings alone).
It’s not exactly the same, but I’m treating Wicks like I would a touchdown-vulture running back — not enough volume to project favorably, but enough upside to be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.
Jayden Reed, WR
If you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down, you’re not alone. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.
- Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
- Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
- Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
- Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT
On one hand, I’m encouraged that this offense is willing to explore Reed’s versatility, but a fluid role like this can bring in more risk than I had penciled into this profile entering the season. That said, I think we are safe to operate with optimism this weekend.
The Bears are vulnerable more in the slot than out wide in terms of efficiency (though they don’t give up touchdowns), and Reed has accounted for 45.5% of the Packers’ slot receptions this season. He’s to be viewed as a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside if, coming out of the bye, this team elects to funnel more looks in the direction of their star pass catcher (he hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since September).
Romeo Doubs, WR
I mentioned the scoring situation savvy of Dontayvion Wicks, and that is draining value from a player in Romeo Doubs who showcased plenty of scoring potential last season with eight scores.
Except for Jayden Reed, there aren’t consistent target earners in this Green Bay offense, and that amplifies the impact of those targets in close. Last season, Doubs was targeted on 22% of his red-zone routes, a rate that has fallen to 14.6% through 10 weeks this season.
We know he has the propensity to disappear altogether (targeted on under 16% of his routes in three of his past five games), something that terrifies me whenever an above-average defense is on the other sideline.
Like all of the other ancillary Packers playmakers, Doubs is a valuable name to have on your roster, but not in your starting lineup at the moment.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Look at Tucker Kraft’s player page and my guess is that you’re going to be a little underwhelmed. The five touchdowns are nice, but with under 40 receiving yards in six of nine games, there is a lower floor than I see most people taking into consideration.
Kraft has yet to reach 40 air yards in a game and has been targeted on under 16% of his routes in each of his past four. The scoring profile keeps him on the TE1 radar (end-zone target or a score in five of his past six games), but I’m not labeling him as the surefire starter that most seem to be doing.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Trends
Green Bay Packers
Team: Week 11 was when the Packers found their stride last season (3-6 before Week 11, finished 6-2).
QB: Jordan Love has completed just two-of-10 red zone passes over his last two games (prior: 19-28, 67.9%).
Offense: The Packers picked up 58.3% of their third downs in Week 6’s win over the Cardinals. In Week 7, they converted 40% of their chances, in Week 8 27.3%, and in Week 9 just 25%.
Defense: Green Bay has allowed a first down on just 33% of third downs this season, their best rate since 2006 (32.6%).
Fantasy: You’re not alone if you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.
- Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
- Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
- Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
- Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT
Betting: The Packers have covered four straight road divisional games, with all four of those games going over the total.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears have lost 10 straight vs. the Packers, tied for the longest losing streak by either team in this series (the Bears also lost 10 straight to Green Bay from 1994-98).
QB: Caleb Williams has been pressured on 46.3% of his dropbacks since returning from a bye in Week 8, the second-highest of any player in that span behind C.J. Stroud. When pressured in that span, Williams has more sacks taken (18) than completions (13).
Offense: The Bears have gone 23 straight offensive drives without a TD dating back to Week 8. That’s tied for the second-longest streak this year behind a 30-drive streak from the Miami Dolphins from Weeks 2-4.
Defense: Chicago allows a touchdown on 14.3% of drives (second-best in the league, behind only the Chargers).
Fantasy: Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 – they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise.
Betting: The Bears are 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in their past 17 divisional games.