After three consecutive years with 13 regular-season wins, the Green Bay Packers hope to translate that success into a Super Bowl 57 appearance. It’s been 11 years since the Packers were in the Super Bowl despite making the playoffs in all but two of those seasons. We’re going to examine the Packers’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Green Bay Packers record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all of the Packers’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Packers are projected as favorites in 12 games, underdogs in three, and two pick ’ems. If the season matches those predictions, the Packers will finish the 2022 NFL campaign with a 12-3-2 record.
The Packers survived an offseason that featured another batch of drama stemming from franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers ultimately received a three-year, $150.8 million extension after threatening to retire. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the Packers were unable to convince All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams to stay.
Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for draft picks that eventually became linebacker Quay Walker (No. 22 overall) and receiver Christian Watson (No. 34). The Packers packaged two second-round picks in order to move up for Watson.
[bet-promo id=”160608″]Much of the Packers’ 2021 roster returned besides Adams. General manager Brian Gutekunst impressively retained All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and cornerback Rasul Douglas. Losing Adams was by far the most significant loss.
The NFC North is not particularly threatening, even with Adams in Sin City. The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are rebuilding. The Minnesota Vikings have a new head coach and brought their veterans back, but their weak secondary will keep them from competing for the divisional title.
Green Bay is an NFC North favorite once again. Only four of their games feature a spread of 3 points or less on either side. They’re either significant favorites or considered behind the top Super Bowl contenders in terms of talent.
Few teams have a schedule as favorable as Green Bay. Their most difficult stretch comes in November as they host Dallas and Tennessee before playing at Philadelphia. The Titans game is on Thursday Night Football, and the Eagles matchup is on Sunday Night Football.
Packers odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Packers on a week-by-week basis. Let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, the conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Packers win total: 11 (-110)
- Most wins: +650
- NFC North winner: -190
- NFC winner: +450
- Super Bowl winner: +1000
The Packers are considered an NFC heavyweight despite their struggles in the playoffs over the last three years. Shockingly, they have the second-best odds in the conference to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. It’s difficult to find value betting on a favorite.
Nevertheless, the NFC North’s makeup and the Packers’ schedule are incredibly kind to the franchise. We can reasonably expect the Packers’ offensive ceiling to be lower without Adams but still good enough to complement one of the best defenses in the NFL. Oddsmakers have shown an understanding of Green Bay’s lack of playmaking receivers if we look at the game spreads against top competition.
The Packers’ defensive continuity and strong running game will carry the team through the regular season. We don’t need to make much projection with this team. We know what they’ll do, and their system will run relatively smooth even without Adams creating big plays out of the structure.
Green Bay will easily win the division but betting on bigger accomplishments is a tough proposition.
Packers MVP odds and player props
The Packers’ MVP candidate is obvious, considering that Rodgers has won the award four times in back-to-back years. Green Bay lost some of their star power with Adams gone, leaving their player props less desirable than last year. Nonetheless, we’re searching for value.
Let’s look at the most intriguing Packers odds and props below.
- MVP
Aaron Rodgers +1000 - Aaron Rodgers regular-season passing yards
Over/Under 4,050.5 (-110) - Aaron Rodgers regular-season interceptions
Over 7.5 (+115)/Under 7.5 (-140) - AJ Dillon regular-season rushing yards
Over 810.5 (+105)/Under 810.5 (-135) - Jaire Alexander regular-season interceptions
Over 2.5 (+100)/Under 2.5 (-130)
It’s hard to envision Rodgers winning MVP or LaFleur winning Coach of the Year, considering the burnout effect that comes after a run like they’ve had. Winning 39 games over three regular seasons is impressive, but Rodgers was lucky to win MVP last year. Then, the franchise had an embarrassing playoff loss in the Divisional Round.
There will be Packers fatigue this season when it comes to awards. There’s little Rodgers or LaFleur could do to shake that until they prove pundits wrong in the playoffs. These awards require the right narrative to win, and neither has the pathway to create that momentum to win.
Instead, I love the player props offered. Let’s dive into the best ones below.
Packers 2022 picks
- Packers over 11 wins: -110
- Packers to win the NFC North: -190
- Rodgers under 4,050.5 passing yards: -110
- Rodgers under 7.5 interceptions: -140
- Dillon over 810.5 rushing yards: +105
- Alexander under 2.5 interceptions: -130
Let’s start with the team picks. The Packers have the 16th-ranked schedule, but it seems even easier because of how it’s broken up. The Vikings and Lions will be scrappy divisional games. However, the Packers still have the better quarterback, defense, and coaching staff to rely on.
There’s no question the Packers will win the NFC North if Rodgers is healthy. The classic recipe of an aging but efficient quarterback and an elite defense still pushes a team quite far. It’ll work again for the Packers in 2022.
The team’s win line is also an easy over for me. For as much as I dislike the team trading Adams away and the implications that has on their playoff upside, there’s a built-in margin for error in Green Bay’s game-by-game spreads. They can surpass the 11-game win total even if they don’t win their coinflip lines.
The player props are more varied. Because Rodgers has less talent around him, I’m taking the under on his workload. That will lead to a stat line that more resembles his 2019 totals when he posted 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions than his absurd numbers from 2020 and 2021.
LaFleur and the 38-year-old Rodgers will have their work cut out for them with this receiving corps. The veteran trio of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins is entirely uninspiring. Rookies Watson and Romeo Doubs had significant flaws in college, so the onus is on this staff and the players to become reliable options throughout the course of the season.
Rodgers might be at a higher risk for more interceptions without Adams, but he hasn’t eclipsed seven interceptions since 2015, and before that was once since 2010. It’s not an accident he’s led the NFL in interception rate over the last four years and is the NFL’s best at avoiding turnovers. That trend will continue in 2022.
The other offensive prop worth grabbing is AJ Dillon’s rushing total. Because Rodgers will throw less, both running backs will see more volume. Dillon broke out in 2021 while Aaron Jones dealt with lingering health issues. Jones’ contract can be terminated after 2022, so the writing is on the wall for Dillion to continue siphoning carries away from him.
Dillion totaled 803 yards last year as he split carries with Jones. With either a slight increase from his 11 carries a game or his 4.3 yards per carry, he’ll easily cash in on the over. That’s a worthwhile bet for a +105 return.
Finally, I like betting against anomalies with interceptions. Turnovers for cornerbacks can be random, but Jaire Alexander has never been a ball hawk. He’s totaled only five career interceptions and no more than two in a season. Considering the Packers have a loaded secondary around him but only a modest pass-rush in front of him, I like getting a reasonable return on him continuing his career trend.