If you’re planning to make Green Bay Packers prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for four of the Packers’ playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and Allen Lazard.
Top Green Bay Packers prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers no longer has Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, or (going in the Wayback Machine) Greg Jennings or Donald Driver. That said, he hasn’t fallen below 4,000 passing yards since 2015 when playing at least half a season.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Rodgers has a somewhat youthful, inexperienced receiving corps and plenty of question marks. He also has two RBs who are dangerous after the catch. 240+ passing yards a game seems very doable, and the offense should be functional enough to produce more than 30 passing touchdowns.
Passing yards: Over 3,950
Passing TDs: Over 30.5
Passing INTs: Under 6.5
Aaron Jones
The days of Aaron Jones earning bell-cow work are over, at least for now. But he remains one of the most talented starting RBs in the league. Also, this franchise has successfully managed his reps, making the 27-year-old a below-average injury risk for his age and career workload.
Interestingly, FanDuel does not offer props for his rushing yardage — only his rushing scores. Maybe this is due to uncertainty about his role. Could AJ Dillon become the 1A RB in this backfield by midseason? Anything is possible when talking about two gifted teammates. For now, we should assume enough shared goal-line work to keep Jones relevant near the end zone.
Rushing TDs: Over 5.5
AJ Dillon
Last fall, I shared why Dillon was a surprisingly good bet to go toe-to-toe with Jones during the fantasy playoffs. At the time, it seemed like a bizarre take. But talent plus opportunity often leads to good results, and Dillon is the real deal.
Yet, his prop line assumes a yardage regression, likely due to concerns about the Packers’ passing attack minus Adams. I see it differently, with Rodgers moving the ball effectively while the backfield inherits a slightly larger workload. Dillon arguably would be the biggest winner in this realistic scenario.
Rushing yards: Over 750.5
Rushing TDs: Over 5.5
Allen Lazard
Is Allen Lazard really the No. 1 WR in Green Bay? If you follow the buzz, it makes sense. But I’m not so sure. Given the Packers’ offseason free agent signings and draft decisions, this looks more like a “throw a bunch of darts at the wall and hope at least two hit the bullseye.”
Lazard has had several chances (across three engaged seasons) to seize the No. 2 WR role behind Adams. He hasn’t. While he and Randall Cobb might have the most chemistry with Rodgers, chemistry matters most in Week 1. After that, it’s about whoever steps up consistently. Romeo Doubs, Amari Rodgers, and Christian Watson are also making a push for a prominent role. Lazard could just as easily be the No. 1 receiver in a crowded receiving corps as he could be the No. 4 receiver.
Receiving yards: Under 750.5