While the Green Bay Packers appeared to be on the verge of exiting the NFC playoff conversation in Week 16, a tight 33-30 win over the Carolina Panthers kept them in the mix — but barely.
At 7-8, the Packers are hardly favored to make the postseason in 2023. However, a path to a Wild Card entry does exist for Green Bay.
What needs to go right in Week 17 for the Packers’ playoff chances to improve?
Packers Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After Week 17, the Packers are now the No. 7 seed in the NFC.
Saturday Night Update
Cowboys (11-5) defeated Lions (11-5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Bears (7-9) defeated Falcons (7-9)
Saints (8-8) defeated Buccaneers (8-8)
Rams (9-7) defeated Giants (5-11)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Packers (8-8) defeated Vikings (7-9)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Packers entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 17?
Green Bay has already been eliminated from winning the NFC North (which the Detroit Lions clinched in Week 16), so their playoff odds are tied up in a potential Wild Card berth.
Heading into Week 17, Pro Football Network’s simulations give the Packers roughly a 21% chance to make the postseason, with the NFC’s No. 7 seed residing as their most likely slot.
Green Bay has the same 7-8 record as the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons, but both clubs hold head-to-head playoff tiebreakers over the Packers, pushing them ahead in the standings. Matt LaFleur’s squad is above the New Orleans Saints for the same reason.
The simplest way for the Packers to make the playoffs is to win out, defeating the Vikings in Week 17 and the Chicago Bears in Week 18. In that scenario, Green Bay would finish 9-8 but still need help from other teams around the league.
However, the Packers may not require as much assistance as one might think. If Green Bay goes 2-0 to finish the season, it will only need one loss by either the Rams or the Seahawks in order to make the postseason as the NFC’s seventh seed. If LA and Seattle each drop one game and the Packers win out, they win the No. 6 seed.
The Rams will complete the 2023 campaign with games against the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks will close with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals.
The Falcons could remain a threat, especially given that Atlanta earned a tiebreaker by defeating Green Bay in Week 2. However, head-to-head victories will only come into play if the Falcons and Packers are the only teams in a tie for the same seed after Week 18.
MORE: Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
Meanwhile, Green Bay could be eliminated as early as this Sunday. The Packers’ season is over if any of the following scenarios play out this weekend:
- GB loss + LAR win/tie
- GB loss + SEA win/tie
- GB loss + ATL win + TB tie
- GB tie + SEA win + LAR win
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!