The Green Bay Packers are facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs this season after losing their last two games. Sitting at 6-8, the potential playoff scenarios are becoming thinner and thinner each week as time runs out for them to overturn a current one-game deficit in the NFC playoff picture.
Let’s take a look at what scenarios the Packers have for making the playoffs and their chances of playing in the postseason this season.
Packers Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After all the gamese in Week 16, the Packers are now the No. 10 seed in the NFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Seahawks (8-7) defeated Titans (5-10)
Packers (7-8) defeated Panthers (2-13)
Lions (11-4) defeated Vikings (7-8)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Bears (6-9) defeated Cardinals (3-12)
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Packers entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances Entering Week 16?
Two straight losses have seen the Packers’ playoff chances slide to 20.2%, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. With a 6-8 record, the Packers are currently sitting 11th in the NFC standings, having been eliminated from division contention last week.
Green Bay is tied on record with the Falcons but sits behind them as the Falcons defeated them back in Week 2. They are half a game behind the New Orleans Saints, a full game behind the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, and 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Rams following Thursday night.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The highest the Packers could conceivably climb this week is ninth if they win and the Falcons lose. They would jump the Saints but cannot get above the Seahawks or Vikings for that final spot in the NFC playoff picture after Week 16. However, both of those losing this week would also make things easier for the Packers in the final two weeks.
Green Bay faces Minnesota in Week 17, where a win will be crucial for leveling up the series after the Vikings won the first matchup in Week 8. The tiebreakers between those two will very much depend on their three other combined remaining divisional games over the next three weeks.
The Packers have the head-to-head advantage over the Saints and Rams, but not the Falcons, who they lost to in Week 2. They have not faced the Seahawks, but both currently have five conference losses, and the Seahawks could clinch the common games NFL playoff tiebreaker if they beat Pittsburgh in Week 17.
The scenarios for the Packers to make the playoffs are fairly convoluted and depend a lot on the results of the teams around them. They realistically need to win out, and then they could do with the Vikings, Falcons, Saints, and Rams all to drop a game.
Seattle would be somewhat negated in any ties involving the Rams, as the Rams have the divisional advantage over the Seahawks, and the Packers have the head-to-head lead over the Rams. Yet, if the scenario above plays out, Seattle’s role is largely irrelevant because having the Rams lose would open up two playoff spots.
The Packers have no elimination scenarios this week, so they can mathematically still make the playoffs if they lose this week, but it gets really tricky. They would need other teams to lose out while they win out, and they would need a combination of results to work in their favor.
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