The Green Bay Packers head into Monday Night Football sitting in the seventh spot in the 2023 NFC standings. The results from Sunday saw the Packers improve their playoff position despite not taking to the field. However, could that change with a loss against the New York Giants in Metlife Stadium, and what would a win do for their playoff hopes?
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine what a win or a loss means for the Packers in their search for the postseason this year and where they stand in the current NFC North playoff picture.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
SNF Game Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
MNF Games Update
Giants (5-8) defeated Packers
What Are the Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in 2023?
It has been a fairly good week for the Packers so far, as they watched a number of their competitors for Wild Card spots fall away and the division-leading Detroit Lions lose.
After the dust settled on Sunday, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Packers a 67.9% chance of making the playoffs. Additionally, ESPN’s FPI gives them a 9.2% chance of winning the division.
Of teams in the NFC not currently leading their division, no one has a better chance of making the playoffs this year than the Packers.
A big part of that percentage takes into account that the Packers are six-point favorites over the New York Giants. Their current moneyline odds of -265 at DraftKings Sportsbook give them an implied win percentage of more than 70%.
A win for the Packers this week would take them to 7-6 and put them a game clear of the chasing pack of four teams at 6-7.
Green Bay would also be level with the Vikings who they face in Week 17. Currently, the Vikings have the head-to-head advantage from their Week 8 victory, but Green Bay can avenge that in the second meeting.
Even a loss would still see the Packers sitting seventh in the NFC. When we start delving into the NFL playoff tiebreakers, the Packers have the advantage over the other 6-7 teams thanks to a superior conference record over the Atlanta Falcons and a head-to-head victory over the Los Angeles Rams.
Those tiebreaker advantages would put the Packers in a nice position if they are a game ahead with four to play. They would still need to go 2-2 or 3-1 as a minimum down the stretch, but it would give them some margin for error.
Can the Packers Win the NFC North This Season?
The NFC North is becoming one of the more fascinating divisions in the NFL this season.
The Packers may only have around a 10% chance of winning the division, according to ESPN’s FPI, but those odds could quickly change over the coming weeks if the Lions continue to struggle.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
As we enter Monday Night Football, the Packers are two games behind the Lions in the loss column. That gap could soon be reduced, with Detroit still having to play the Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, and Vikings twice. Meanwhile, the Packers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Vikings, and Chicago Bears in their final four games.
If Green Bay wins tonight against the Giants, they will believe they can go 3-1 or 4-0 with that schedule. That will make things fascinating for the division. If Detroit sweeps the Vikings but loses to the Cowboys and Broncos, the Packers could tie them at 11-6, but the Lions would have the advantage on the common games tiebreaker.
Therefore, the Packers need the Lions to drop at least one of their two games to the Vikings. If that happens, and they lose a second somewhere else, Green Bay could take the division due to a superior record within the division.
There is a scenario where the Lions, Packers, and Vikings all get to 10-7. The final standings would then come down to those games between the three teams. If the Vikings can take two of three games from their division rivals, they have a great chance to secure the division based on a better head-to-head record between the three teams in the event of a three-way tie.
There is a lot that can still play out in the NFC North over the coming weeks. However, from the Packers’ perspective, it only matters if they beat the Giants on Monday Night Football. A loss in Week 14 would not end the Packers’ hopes, but it would make it tough for them to get into a position where they can clinch the division and a home playoff game.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
