The Green Bay Packers‘ preview takes a look at RB Aaron Jones’ fluctuating fantasy football value, while the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ fantasy outlook attempts to rank WR George Pickens among other deep ball threats.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Steelers -3
- Total: 39
- Packers implied points: 18
- Steelers implied points: 21
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love: There is absolutely no reason to be digging this deep at the position. Love had six touchdown passes on 29 completions through Week 2 — he has six on 126 attempts since. There will be splash plays now and again, but counting on Love to put together consecutive drives is a tall order, let alone four quarters.
Kenny Pickett: He was unable to thrive in a good matchup last week against the Titans (160 yards and one TD) and is firmly off the starting radar in any standard league. He has one multi-TD game on his 2023 résumé (Week 3 at LV) and offers little upside despite having a pair of viable pass catchers.
I hate being negative. Pickett is my QB1 in this game!
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: Was Week 9 the start of something or, as Derek Tate mentioned on our Trade Targets Podcast (currently available on the PFN Fantasy YouTube Channel), an excuse to cash in this chip?
The answer to that question, naturally, depends on what you can get for Jones in a deal. It’s easy to be encouraged by his 41-29 snap edge over AJ Dillon and by his 20 carries, a total he reached, in total, over his previous four games.
If you’re taking the optimistic view, as I (cautiously) am, the fact that Jones has seen 5+ targets in three straight gives his fantasy production some staying power.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Of course, it should be noted that the Packers were playing in a positive game script for the run game last week, something I don’t think we see a ton of moving forward. I have Jones as a fine RB2 against the 26th-ranked per-carry defense, thinking that last week was a proof of health.
AJ Dillon: If you’re holding Dillon, it’s in a handcuff capacity. He has scored just once in 105 touches this season and doesn’t yet have a carry gaining more than 15 yards this season.
With no more than one target in five of his past seven games, Dillon pretty clearly has no path to standalone value while Jones is active. If you’re struggling to fill in your Flex spot, I prefer secondary backs like Tyler Allgeier or Zach Charbonnet.
Najee Harris: If you had the patience to hold onto — and start — Harris last week, you’re better than me. He paid off your loyalty with 76 yards and a score, out-snapping Jaylen Warren 38-26 (15-10 edge in routes) in the process.
The strong game against the Titans on Thursday night resulted in his third top-25 finish of the season. Harris’ role in the passing game has ticked up after a slow first month, which is enough to keep him ahead of Warren in my rankings, but I still don’t view him as an RB2.
We’re still talking about a player averaging under 4.0 yards per carry on a struggling offense facing a top-12 run defense in terms of ypc.
Jaylen Warren: Did we see some birthday swag last week from Warren? One day after his 25th birthday, the explosive back lit up the TItans for 113 yards on 14 touches and looked like a well-above-average back in the process.
As mentioned, Harris also looked good, which means that Warren’s role is unlikely to be greatly impacted by his impressive Week 9. Warren has at least three receptions in seven of eight games, and that elevates his PPR fantasy floor to a level where I think he’s in the Flex conversation — even without a significant role change.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson: Green Bay’s presumed WR1 suffered a variety of injuries last week, and his status for this week is up in the air at the moment.
Since the bye, though, Watson has a total of seven catches on 15 targets for 97 yards across three games, finishing none of those weeks ranked better than WR60. Despite this being a pass-happy league, not every offense has to have a fantasy-viable receiver.
Romeo Doubs: The lack of upside for Doubs (one 20+ yard reception this season) is moderately concerning, but with Watson banged up, he’s moderately interesting. This season, Doubs has earned at least nine targets in three games and has four top-25s — that sort of production doesn’t happen by accident.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Doubs is currently my highest-ranked Green Bay WR and lands as my WR39.
Jayden Reed: The rookie has been held under 25 receiving yards in three of his past four games. He pretty clearly isn’t a target earner just yet (15 targets over the past month).
Reed has just one top-35 finish since Week 2, and it came courtesy of a touchdown on a pass that wasn’t intentionally thrown to him. Big plays and a fantasy-relevant role are his down the road, but at this point in the fantasy season, it’s important to separate that promise from a reasonable rest-of-season projection.
Diontae Johnson: A touchdown?!? Johnson caught seven balls for 90 yards and the slump-busting TD on Thursday night as he reestablishes himself as a weekly fantasy lineup lock.
Johnson has earned 33.3% of the targets over the past two games (per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet) and has a 25+ yard reception in three of his past four. The Steelers have seemingly found a nice middle ground between his traditional role and the high aDOT position they put him in last year.
If you remained patient while Johnson was on IR earlier this season, you’re being rewarded in a big way right now, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon.
George Pickens: I’m very much a numbers nerd, but it’s hard to overlook Pickens’ mental state right now. During Week 9, he failed to drag his toes on what should have been a touchdown. Then, after the game, he took to social media to voice his frustrations in the limitations of this offense. Not great.
Pickens did lead Steelers receivers in snap share last week (89.1%), and the talent jumps off the screen at you, so he remains on the Flex radar. He has three games north of 100 yards this season, a level of upside that those ranked around him don’t have access to. But with four games under 40 yards, the rug can be pulled out from under you in a significant way.
Pickens is clearly the WR2 in Pittsburgh for me. In the scope of the NFL, he’s a low-end Flex option in this matchup, ranking alongside other volatile receivers in Tyler Lockett, Tank Dell, and Gabe Davis.
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave: It was good to see the rookie find paydirt for the first time in his career last week against the Rams. The 51 yards he gained in that game were also a season-high.
Baby steps.
Musgrave looks the part of a pass-catching tight end who can thrive with time in this league, but that time is not right now. Not consistently, at least.
Musgrave has just two games north of five targets this season. With the value of those targets in question due to Love’s limitations, I’m not considering him an option this week (my TE17).
Should You Start Najee Harris or Alexander Mattison?
I’ll take Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison in this spot. While Harris has Warren breathing down his neck, Mattison’s primary backup, Cam Akers, tore his Achilles last week, which gives Minnesota’s lead back a nice edge in projectable volume.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart Week 10
I’m not sure either offense spends much time in the red zone this week, making that edge in touches that much more valuable.
Should You Start George Pickens or Gabe Davis?
I slightly lean toward Pickens in this spot, but there is no denying the wide range of outcomes that come with starting either receiver.
With these boom/bust options, all we can ask for is opportunity. I’m more comfortable with Pickens’ target floor. He should have had a touchdown last week against the Tennessee Titans, a play that would have continued a trend of Pickens producing in Pittsburgh’s wins.
Prior to last week, he had reached at least 11.5 half-PPR points in each of the Steelers’ wins, and with them in a good spot to win this week, I expect him to push double digits. That’s a favorable projection compared to the random number generator that is Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!