The shape of the Green Bay Packers season changed last Monday when Randy Bullock’s last-second field goal consigned them to a surprise defeat. That game left the Packers sitting at 6-7 and tied with five other teams in the NFC playoff picture. That has left the Packers with little room for error in terms of securing a Wild Card spot and made it tough for them to compete for the division this season.
Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 8:05 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Following Monday Night Football in Week 15, the Packers remain 11th in the NFC standings. Green Bay has also been knocked out of NFC North contention.
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Packers entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What are the Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Scenarios and Chances in Week 15?
Entering Sunday morning, the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs sit at 49%, according to ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The loss last week saw their chances drop by around 15-20%, but they still have a solid chance of playing in the postseason this year.
The best-case scenario for the Packers in Week 15 would be for them to win and all the other teams sitting at 6-7 lose.
That would mean the Packers enter the final three weeks of the season with a one-game cushion in the race for the Wild Card spot in the NFC. The loss by the Vikings on Saturday was the first part of an ideal Week 15 for the Packers.
The one game that is tricky from a best-case point of view is the matchup between the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. A Giants win would move them to 6-8 and drop the Saints to 6-8. However, the Packers may prefer to have the Giants two games back, given New York has the head-to-head advantage from their Week 14 game.
If the Saints win, they will sit at 7-7 and in a tie with the Packers in terms of record. The Packers defeated the Saints earlier in the year, so they have a head-to-head advantage in the event of a tie in terms of overall record.
Regardless of the result between the Saints and Giants, it will leave the Packers with a one-game margin of error over both of those opponents.
MORE: Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
Therefore, the outcome does not matter too much in either direction for Green Bay this week.
What the Packers know is that if they win in Week 15, they will hold onto that playoff spot as the seventh-seeded team in the NFC. No matter what happens around them, no one can displace them from that spot this week.
Green Bay has head-to-head wins over the Saints and Los Angeles Rams. They have a head-to-head loss against the Atlanta Falcons, but if the Packers win and the Falcons win, then Atlanta jumps into the fourth seed and knocks the Buccaneers back into the Wild Card race.
The difference in best and worst-case scenarios for the Packers is wide. A loss this week could see the Packers tumble all the way to 11th in the NFC standings. It would require the Rams, Falcons, and Seattle Seahawks all to win, but that is a feasible floor for the Packers after this week.
Realistically, the Packers would only be one game back, but they would be relying on a lot of help from elsewhere if they lose in Week 15.
The biggest damage with a loss this week would be another head-to-head loss when it comes to NFL playoff tiebreakers, which could yet be crucial in determining the playoff spots come Week 18.
Can the Green Bay Packers Still Win the NFC North in 2023?
Yes, the Packers can still mathematically win the NFC North this year, but they need a lot of help. The Packers were three games behind the Detroit Lions entering Week 15 and one game behind the Minnesota Vikings. After Saturday’s results, the Lions are 3.5 games ahead following their victory over the Denver Broncos, and the Vikings are just a half-game ahead of the Packers after their loss.
What this means is that the Packers have to be perfect from here on out. Even before Saturday, it was hard to play out a scenario where a 9-8 Packers team wins the division, but now the Lions are already at 10 wins. However, there is a scenario where, at 10-7, they can take the division in either a two-way tie thanks to playoff tiebreakers.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In getting to 10-7, the Packers would finish with wins over the Vikings and Bears. That would take them to 4-2 in divisional play and ensure they cannot be topped on that record.
Saturday’s results ensured there cannot be a three-way tie in the NFC North, and that the Packers and Vikings cannot tie atop the division. That means if the Lions go 0-3 from here out, the Packers have a chance.
Getting the Vikings out of the tiebreaker scenario is huge for the Packers because they need Minnesota to sweep the Lions. However, in a potential three-way tie that would have been problematic for Green Bay. The Vikings would have had a better head-to-head record in games between the three teams.
In a two-way tiebreaker, the Packers would get the division if they get to 10-7. Green Bay would have a superior division record to the Lions in that scenario, as they would have had to lose both games to the Vikings.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!