The final game of the week has some fantasy football appeal and could swing matchups. The Green Bay Packers fantasy outlook revolves around their top receiver while the Las Vegas Raiders fantasy preview focuses on their ground game.
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Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Packers -2.5
- Total: 44.5
- Packers implied points: 23.5
- Raiders implied points: 21
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love: Is it true that Love has cleared 17.5 fantasy points in every game this season? It is, but this is beginning to feel like the Titanic taking on water.
OK, so that may be a bit dramatic, and this is a plus matchup, but you get where I’m going with this — what he was doing to open this season was simply unsustainable. His fantasy points per pass attempt by week:
- Week 1 at CHI: 0.87
- Week 2 at ATL: 0.72
- Week 3 vs. NO: 0.28
- Week 4 vs. DET: 0.27
A rushing score has saved his fantasy stock in consecutive weeks, and with three viable quarterbacks on bye this week (Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, and Deshaun Watson), he’s a reasonable streamer in this favorable matchup, I just want to caution against setting the expectations too high, even with this roster trending toward full strength.
Jimmy Garoppolo: After suffering a concussion in Week 3, Garoppolo failed to pass through protocol in time to suit up for last week’s loss to the Chargers. We’ve seen everyone who enters the protocol this season miss exactly one week, including teammate Jakobi Meyers, making it reasonably safe to assume that the best jawline in sports is back in time for this prime-time battle that features his star receiver in a revenge spot.
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No, he’s not a world beater, and no, he himself isn’t of interest this week for me (low-end QB2), but in his three starts this season, he averages 23% more yards per pass than what Aidan O’Connell produced in his debut last week, making his return good news for all involved.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: Game flow certainly did Jones no favors in his return to action last week after missing a pair of games, but six touches for 14 yards is underwhelming no matter how you look at it.
Dillon held nearly a 2:1 snap edge over Jones in the loss to Detroit, something I expect to level off sooner rather than later. A committee situation in an offense that may not be any better than league average isn’t overly encouraging, but in a good matchup and with a long week to prepare, Jones is an RB2 for me in Week 5.
AJ Dillon: To call the first month of the 2023 NFL season underwhelming for Dillon would be an understatement — a vast understatement. His 47 touches this season have netted just 15.8 fantasy points, and if you’re a glutton for punishment, know that his per-touch production this season is half of what Deon Jackson averages for his career. Not ideal.
Dillon deserves to be rostered if for no other reason than a double-digit touch role just isn’t available in most leagues. But until we get visual proof pointing in a different direction, there’s no way he should be near fantasy lineups when Jones is active.
Josh Jacobs: For the third time in four weeks, Jacobs reached 20 touches in Week 4. The role is nothing short of elite, but this was better than what we had seen through three weeks, an encouraging sign in a plus matchup with the Chargers. He scored his first touchdown of the season, led the team in receptions, had his longest gain of the season (21-yard catch), and posted career bests in both receiving yards (81) and targets (11).
He was also an inch away from another score in a possession that ended with an O’Connell sneak touchdown. So there was a lot of good to come from Week 4. That said, you’re not in the clear yet.
Per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet, he is flirting with a calendar year since his last rush gaining more than 20 yards and doesn’t have a single carry (62 attempts) gaining more than 10 yards this season. He is just under two yards tall, and he is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry behind this brutal offensive line.
The Lions ran for 211 yards and three scores on Thursday night against these Packers last week, giving Jacobs matchup-winning upside in the final game of the week.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson: One big catch and one score, welcome back. Watson has scored once every 5.4 catches during his NFL career, a rate that is beyond unsustainable (Calvin Johnson’s career rate: 8.8). That said, it was good to see him make it through his season debut without any setbacks and his return to action was planned well by the Packers, as he has a long week to recover and prepare for Week 5.
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In Week 4, Watson ran just 20 routes, ranking him fifth among Packer pass catchers. That’s going to change with time, though with Romeo Doubs proving capable of earning targets and Jayden Reed flashing upside, there is no denying that there is some legitimate target competition in an offense whose quarterback is completing just 56.1% of his passes.
I’m not ready to lock in Watson as a starter in all formats, and I’m not sure I’ll get there at any point, but there is certainly upside to chase in a plus matchup. He’s the type of player I’ll Flex if I’m an underdog and can take on some risk.
Romeo Doubs: The second-year receiver has impressed through the first month, earning a 25.6% target share this season (43.1% over the past two weeks), with his yardage total increasing each week. He’s making plays down the field and looks good in doing so, but I’d be cautious about slotting him into lineups just yet.
As encouraging as the start is, his best showing last season post-Watson breakout was a 17.9% target share when the two shared the field. That’s not to say he can’t compete for the WR1 role in this offense as Watson trends toward full strength, but it is something I’m keeping in mind until we see a change. Doubs needs to be rostered and could well prove to be the top receiver in this offense, but I need evidence he can earn looks at an elite rate with Watson healthy.
Jayden Reed: The rookie has a 30-yard catch in three of four games and has earned no less than five targets in each of those contests, though his high aDOT role is in jeopardy as Watson trends toward a clean bill of health.
More balls thrown his way have hit the turf (13) than he has caught (12), a major concern if the volume (6.3 targets per game) declines in any sort of significant way. His single-play upside in an offense that clearly has plans to stretch the field is worth rostering now that we are in the midst of bye weeks, but he’s nothing more than a risk/reward dart throw.
Davante Adams: Adams enters a revenge game pacing for 140 catches (212 targets) for a career-high 1,687 yards and 13 touchdowns in an offense with an underwhelming starting quarterback who missed last week. Adams’ target share this season is north of 38% in an offensive strategy we’ve only seen on a few occasions before.
He is as quarterback/situation-proof a receiver as we have in today’s game and came at a decent discount this summer: enjoy the ride.
Jakobi Meyers: The box score against the Chargers was underwhelming (two catches for 33 yards), but let’s not overreact. First of all, a quarterback making his debut is obviously a tough spot. That’s just a fact. Khalil Mack was living in the backfield, and outside of quick reads to Adams, there really was no hope for this passing game.
As bad as this offense was last week, Meyers made an acrobatic 50-yard catch in triple coverage where he was called for a ticky-tack offensive pass interference that negated the play. If that stands, it’s a viable performance despite the lack of continuity, and you’re not thinking twice about Meyers this week.
Jakobi Meyers
⁃ 5.8 Fantasy Points Week 4
⁃ Great Schedule: GB NE CHI DET
⁃ Cash in on WRs ranked 30-40 for JMMeyers has seen 10 and 12 targets in his two healthy games with Jimmy G under center…
PPR machine flying under the radar. pic.twitter.com/PcI3ihJIeR
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) October 4, 2023
With Garoppolo back in the mix, Meyers should be viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end Flex option. Last week with O’Connell, he saw just a 10.5% target share, but in two weeks with Garoppolo, 31.4% of throws have been directed his way.
The Packers are giving up 24 points per game this season despite games against the Falcons and Bears, not to mention getting the Lions at home. I prefer Meyers to any Packer receiver in this game and would play him over WR1s like George Pickens and Marquise Brown.
Hunter Renfrow: The production obviously hasn’t been there, but he might be worth stashing. Both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have dealt with injuries in the first month of this season, and Renfrow ran a route on 81.8% of his snaps last week.
I’m not saying he holds value at the moment because he doesn’t, but the Raiders don’t have their bye until Week 13, and that means that he is reasonable roster depth as you look to navigate injuries/byes over the next two months.
Garoppolo has never been shy about targeting the slow, and with Renfrow occupying that role, he should at least be on your radar if you have the roster space.
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave: The rookie tight end suffered a first-half concussion against the Lions last week, and in most instances this season, that has resulted in one missed game.
Could that change with a min-bye given that the Packers played on Thursday? Maybe, but with Green Bay going on bye next week, I’m comfortable in cutting ties with the impressive first-year player and continuing to stream the position. He will be back on the radar when the Packers return to action as they get the Broncos and Vikings in Weeks 7-8.
Should You Start Aaron Jones or De’Von Achane?
I’ll side with Jones this week over the explosive rookie, and it’s based on my volume projection. Jones was limited and unimpressive in his Week 4 return, but with a long week to rehab and work back into shape, he should take back the featured role in this offense.
At the end of the day, Jones has less competition (AJ Dillon: 2.7 yards per carry) in an offense that needs to run the ball than Achane has in an offense that prefers to move the ball through the air. Both are top-20 plays for me, but Jones is two spots higher in my Week 5 positional ranks.
Should You Start Jakobi Meyers or Christian Watson?
A Monday night decision goes the way of the Raiders.
With time, Watson could be more valuable than Meyers, but we saw him on a pitch count last week, and until we get the fully unleashed version, give me the guy who has seen double-digit targets in both of his games with Garoppolo under center this season.