When the Green Bay Packers traded for DeShone Kizer back in the 2018 offseason, Packers fans were ecstatic. Coming off a season where Brett Hundley started nine games, it was clear he wasn’t the answer if Aaron Rodgers was to go down with another injury. Most fans were fed up with Hundley’s incompetent play, and Kizer offered fresh blood and a clean slate. Kizer had been a second-round draft pick just one year prior and already had nearly an entire season of starting experience under his belt. Mike McCarthy and the Packers’ coaching staff were known for their ability to coach up young quarterbacks, and Kizer had an abundance of talent for them to work with. If that coaching staff could harness the talent and potential, they may have found Rodgers’ long term replacement.
Of course, some baggage came with Kizer. In his one year with the Cleveland Browns, he struggled badly. In 15 starts, Kizer threw for just 2,894 yards, 11 touchdowns, and had a QBR of only 60.5 — nearly 9 points lower than the next closest passer. This was all en route to a “historic” 0-16 season for the Browns.
But maybe there’s a silver lining?
Through all of his rookie struggles, Kizer did manage to come close to breaking a rookie quarterback record set by Peyton Manning back in 1998 — The record for the most interceptions thrown by a rookie in a single season (Manning threw 28). Kizer threw 22 INTs in 2017, giving him a touchdown/interception ratio of .5.
Yikes.
Keep in mind that’s in only 15 games. Sitting out that one game might have saved him from channeling his inner Nathan Peterman and coming even closer to Manning’s record.
Kizer’s situation was less than ideal
But as embarrassing as Kizer’s rookie numbers were and as easy as it is to mock his play, the Packers were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
For starters, there isn’t much worse of a situation a young quarterback can be thrown into than Kizer was with the Browns in 2017. His leading pass catcher that season was running back Duke Johnson who tailed 74 receptions for 693 yards. After Johnson, however, there was a steep falloff. Kizer’s next leading pass catcher, tight end Seth Devalve, totaled just 395 yards, and his leading wide receiver, Ricardo Louis, had only 357 yards.
The Browns offensively were the worst scoring offense in the league, averaging just 14.6 points per game. For reference, the league-leading Los Angeles Rams offense more than doubled Cleveland’s average, putting up 29.9 points per game. And defensively, the Browns weren’t much better. Cleveland ranked 31st in scoring defense in 2017, giving up 25.6 points per game.
Kizer came out a year too soon
As bad of a situation as it was for Kizer, it should have never been the case. Kizer came out in the 2017 draft with a year left of college eligibility. While he was one of the most highly scouted college quarterbacks in his time at Notre Dame; scouts, GMs, and draft analysts alike almost universally agreed that Kizer was making a horrible mistake not going back to college for his senior season. Even Brian Kelly, Kizer’s head coach at Notre Dame, publicly stated his disagreement with Kizer’s decision to enter the draft.
Shortly before the 2017 NFL draft, Kelly went on Sirius XM NFL Radio, with Bruce Murray and former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, and spoke on Kizer’s decision to enter the draft.
“Well, he still should be in college, You know, but the circumstances are such that you have to make business decisions and, you know, he felt like it was in his best interest and I’m going to support him and his decision. But the reality of it is he needs more football. He needs more time to grow in so many areas, not just on the field but off the field. He’s a great kid, he’s got great character.”
Had he stayed in college, he would have never been put in the situation he was with the Browns, and he would have been given more time to develop under Kelly at Notre Dame and improve his draft stock for 2018.
Shortly after trading for Kizer, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said that he believed Kizer would’ve been a first-round selection had he waited until 2018 to enter the draft.
“In my opinion, if he was in that class this year,” McCarthy said via USA today, “he would’ve been part of that group of first four guys, or first five. I always felt there were five, the five quarterbacks, first-round guys.”
That group of quarterbacks McCarthy was referring to is, of course, the five passers selected in last years draft; Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson.
Of course McCarthy was going to talk highly of a guy his team just traded for, so take his comments with a pinch of salt, but being put in the same category as those five aforementioned quarterbacks was very exciting; especially considering all Green Bay really gave up for him at the time was an inconsistent Damarious Randall who had been causing waves in the locker room and may have been cut anyway.
Kizer hasn’t shown enough improvement for Packers
But now, a year and some change removed from his acquisition, it appears that Green Bay has missed on Kizer. By no means does that mean trading for him was a horrible mistake. Brian Gutekunst made the move with no expectations of what Kizer would become. Yes, the hope was that he would develop into Rodgers’ eventual replacement, but the move was made to take a flyer on Kizer more than anything else. Bringing him in to evaluate his talent first hand was not a wrong move, but staying on him any longer in hopes that he will suddenly blossom would be.
There are three reasons, I believe, that teams carry backup quarterbacks on their roster. You can disagree, but this is what I’ve seen to be true in my time watching the NFL. Some backups may fit more than one of these molds. For the Green Bay Packers, DeShone Kizer doesn’t fit any.
Reason 1: Rookie/ Developmental Player
This is a philosophy that is much more successful in theory than it is in practice. Nonetheless, teams subscribe to it every year.
No team wants to put a young quarterback through what DeShone Kizer had to go through his rookie season. To prevent that from happening, teams will draft a player and let them sit and develop on the bench. Ideally, a team will have a serviceable veteran that can man the ship until said player is ready to take over. When executed correctly, the results yielded are tremendous. The Packers did this with Rodgers, and the Kansas City Chiefs did it more recently with Patrick Mahomes. More often than not, however, rookies are thrust into starting positions earlier than anticipated. For the sake of this argument, that is beside the point right now.
While Green Bay didn’t draft Kizer, this is sort of what they were going for when they traded for him. He needed time on the bench to develop and become more comfortable with the NFL game. If he could sit behind Aaron Rodgers, one of the games best, and receive coaching from a staff with an excellent track record, the hope was that he could develop into either a high profile backup or potentially Rodgers’ replacement.
The problem is, however, that throughout his time in Green Bay, Kizer has not seen the growth and development that warrants keeping him around. Has he gotten better; yes. But that amount of time and those resources spent on his development is not worth what Kizer has given them. Keeping Kizer on the roster prevents Green Bay from taking on a new developmental project (potentially Tim Boyle or a 2020 prospect) and giving them the opportunities that Kizer has been given.
Reason 2: Veteran that can mentor and/or win games in a pinch
Here we are talking about guys like Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Trevor Siemian or Matt Schaub. Ideally, they are guys with starting experience who may not have the talent to be one of the top 32 but have proven themselves in the league. Some teams bring these types of quarterbacks into mentor younger guys — much like Josh McCown did last year with Sam Darnold. Other teams who believe they have a competitive roster bring this type of guy in as insurance if their starter goes down. If their starter misses a few games, their season isn’t derailed because they don’t have a competent backup.
Obviously, Kizer wasn’t brought in to mentor Rodgers, but having that one season of experience under his belt when he came in added a layer of comfort for Green Bay. Unfortunately, as stated multiple times already, Kizer hasn’t made any significant strides to improve upon his time as a starter and therefore isn’t a reliable option to help lead Green Bay to victory if something were to happen to Rodgers. The writing is pretty much on the wall in Green Bay that Kizer isn’t the long term answer at quarterback. Knowing that, and knowing that he’s not someone that can win you games in the short term, why keep him around at all?
Reason 3: Looking for a trade partner
There are only a few teams in the league that have the luxury of being in this position. The Packers are one of them. Teams like Green Bay, who know they are rock solid at the quarterback position can take shots at young QBs, groom them, and try to flip them for more than paid to get them. New England did this with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, and Green Bay did it with Matt Flynn years ago.
This is the only category Kizer has any semblance of fitting in, although that window is closing fast. He’s still young and has a lot of time to develop. The days of hoping he blossoms into a starter are likely over, but for many of the same reasons Green Bay took a risk on him, another team could as well. Maybe a team believes that with their coaching and locker room culture, they can be the ones to make a breakthrough with his development.
A team like the Philadelphia Eagles would have been a perfect trade partner. They were desperate for a backup quarterback and likely would’ve given up more than they needed to to get a guy like Kizer. Unfortunately, the hopes of that happening are all but gone now that they signed Josh McCown as their backup. Maybe Green Bay was on the phones with them behind the scenes trying to move Kizer, but if they were not, and if they are not willing to move on from Kizer quickly, his trade value will only go down.
The Counterargument
The counterargument for keeping Kizer is quite clear. Firstly, he’s only in year two with Green Bay, his third overall. That’s much too soon to give up on a player. Secondly, he has an entirely new coaching staff this year and the short time he’s had to work with Matt LaFleur is not enough time to decide to move on. That is a fair argument.
But, to whoever wants to make that argument I say this: what can Kizer give you that Tim Boyle can’t? If Rodgers gets injured this year, Green Bay is screwed any way you look at it. It doesn’t matter if it’s Boyle or Kizer back there — neither will win you games. As a Packer fan, would you feel comfortable with Kizer behind center for an extended period?
I’d venture to guess the answer would overwhelmingly be no. So by that logic, the only reason to keep him around would be for his long term potential. The problem here is; expecting Kizer to suddenly blossom into a starting quarterback in the coming years would be completely uncharted territory. I challenge you to find a quarterback who started early, struggled as mightily as Kizer did, showed little development in year two and three as a non-starter, and then suddenly popped in year 5+ to become a competent starter on a contending team.
Kizer won’t win games in the short term, and the Packers already know he’s not the long term answer. Keeping Boyle over Kizer won’t leave Green Bay any less far behind. Being so young and still having a prominent name around the league means that there is still value for Kizer in the trade market. But the longer Green Bay waits, the more that value diminishes. If DeShone Kizer is on Green Bay’s final 53-man roster, that would be a mistake and a huge missed opportunity.