The Green Bay Packers fantasy preview following their bye tries to project what they will look like at full strength, while the Denver Broncos fantasy football outlook attempts to give clarity on who their top receiver is.
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Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Packers -1
- Total: 44.5
- Packers implied points: 22.8
- Broncos implied points: 21.8
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love: We talked a lot about normalization after Love lit the fantasy world up with his efficiency through two weeks, and it has come to fruition in a major way in his three games since.
While he was averaging 0.77 points-per-pass-attempt in Weeks 1 and 2, his average dropped to 0.21 in Weeks 3-5.
That means that, over his past three games, his average pass has been nearly 73% less valuable than it was during those first two games. Is that a bit drastic? Probably, but this version of Love isn’t worth much in fantasy.
MORE: Week 7 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
On paper, coming off the bye to face the Denver Broncos is an advantageous spot. If you want to be different in the DFS streets, I’d be receptive to that idea, understanding that the Patrick Mahomes/Justin Herbert matchup will draw plenty of ownership.
Outside of that though, I’m passing on Love. The Broncos get a mini-bye of their own after holding Mahomes to just his second career game with 30-plus completions and no more than one TD pass.
Russell Wilson: It’s not easy to play an entire football game in 2023 and come in under 100 passing yards, but that is what Wilson did last Thursday night against the Chiefs. He went 13-of-22 for just 95 yards, one TD, and two INTs.
Denver only running 49 offensive plays was largely to blame, and while the stat line was repulsive, there actually were a few silver linings.
Wilson ran for 31 yards and looked spry throughout the game, even on non-rush attempts. I also like it when my quarterback is honed in on his primary receivers, and while it didn’t work in this spot, WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton combining for a 50% target share is directionally correct in terms of how Wilson will emerge as a viable fantasy streamer – eventually.
I’m not going there this week against a Green Bay Packers team coming off of their bye, but it is worth noting that the Broncos get the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Detroit Lions in Weeks 13-15. I’m not saying he’ll be a top-10 guy those weeks, but I’m just making mention of when he could peak for those in deeper and/or two-QB formats.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: Calling the first six weeks a lost cause for Jones’ managers would be an understatement. After lighting up the Bears in Week 1 with 127 yards and two TDs, he missed two games with a hamstring injury. We all got excited for his return in a big prime-time game against the Detroit Lions, only to see him pick up 14 yards on six touches and miss Week 5.
Coming out of the bye against a Broncos defense that has given up RB production every week of the season would seem to be the perfect get-right spot. Maybe this is Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, but I again have him ranked as a must-start, trusting his health with the time off and Green Bay’s desire to get production from the run game.
Fellow RB AJ Dillon has averaged 3.0 yards per carry without a 15-yard run so far this season.
AJ Dillon: The Packers have remained loyal to Dillon despite little evidence that it is the right move. In Week 5, with Jones sidelined, Dillon handled 20 of 22 running back carries and punched in his first touchdown of the season. That’s the good.
The bad is that he failed to average even 4.0 yards per carry for a ninth straight game dating back to last season and hasn’t caught a pass in over a month. We had hopes that Dillon would hold standalone value next to Jones this season, but at the moment, the only way he is sniffing lineups is if Jones misses his fourth game of the season.
Javonte Williams: In his return to action, Williams picked up 52 yards on 10 carries and looked reasonably explosive. He had an 18-yard spurt and was a tough tackle in a low-volume effort from the Broncos.
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While I’m buying him as healthy right now, there’s no denying the health risk that comes with him. RB Jaleel McLaughlin has acquitted himself well with the opportunities he’s been given.
Williams hasn’t had a game with more than 15 carries since December of 2021, and without volume in a grounded offense, I have a hard time thinking he cracks my top 20 any time in the near future. He is my preferred Denver back, but that doesn’t rank him as a must-start by any means this week.
Jaleel McLaughlin: With Williams working his way back from injury, McLaughlin not only got the first carry of the game, he held a 21-18 edge in snaps and an 11-5 advantage in routes run. He ran hard and looks the part of an NFL running back, but is this a spot where he can succeed?
This feels a lot like some of the backfields in the AFC North where we have a committee that is so even, there isn’t one back you feel comfortable starting. He is very much worth stashing, given his production in limited action and Williams’ growing list of injuries.
But, you’d have really have to be in a tough spot to Flex him against a rested Packers defense that has excelled at getting off the field with their top-10, third-down defense creating a 34.7% conversion rate.
Samaje Perine: Perine has lost a fumble in consecutive games, and the only impact he has on fantasy at this moment is taking a handful of available touches away from the two backs ahead of him. They brought him in this summer for a reason, and I doubt he fully disappears, which gives you yet another reason to think twice about starting a member of this backfield.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson: Week 5 was a massive step forward for Watson, and that’s not just because we saw him haul in a 77-yard pass. Against the Las Vegas Raiders, he was on the field for 84.5% of the snaps and ran a route on 85.3% of Love’s dropbacks. This is usage that will give him the opportunity to produce at the top-20 level that he was drafted at this summer.
Of course, as is the case with all Packers pass-catchers these days, efficiency is going to be a tough ask. He has caught just five of 11 targets this season, and while Love’s aDOT ranks among the highest in the game, his accuracy on those throws is sporadic, at best.
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Will Watson get the Patrick Surtain treatment? The Broncos have displayed discipline when it comes to utilizing their star corner, opting to force him on the opposing WR1 if it’ll compromise the integrity of the unit as a whole.
That said, they are more than happy to stick him on the top threat when they can – he held former Packer WR Davante Adams to 11 yards when assigned to him in Week 1, and that has to at least be factored in.
Watson is a fine Flex play for me this week, as I balance the risk of shadow coverage with the single-play upside that a healthy version of Watson has proven to possess.
Romeo Doubs: Watson’s Week 5 performance was a return to basically a full-time role, and it was pretty clearly Doubs is the WR2 option. He held a 50-29 snap advantage over WR Jayden Reed. That’s encouraging enough to keep him rostered, but the fact that his four targets netted four yards indicates that this offense isn’t ready to sustain two viable fantasy receivers at this moment.
That’s not a knock on this offense – that’s not an easy task. Think about it, the Buffalo Bills have been a wide-open offense for years, and the next year we consider WR Gabe Davis as a lineup staple will be the first.
Doubs proved plenty capable of earning opportunities prior to the unleashing of Watson (25 targets across Weeks 3-4), and that is enough to keep him rostered.
Jayden Reed: The rookie’s standing as a roster-worthy option is on thin ice to say the least. Has he shown nice upside at points this season? Yes, but with only two targets in Week 5 and skill set duplication with Watson, there’s more risk than reward in his profile right now.
Through five games, Reed’s aDOT is 30.4% greater than that of Doubs, putting him in danger in seeing his role reduce the greatest when Watson is right. The return of Jones should give this offense more balance, which is a further knock on Reed’s potential.
He’s, at best, the third option in a pass game that lacks consistency, and that puts him on the chopping block if you’re stuck in a tough spot.
Jerry Jeudy: After being called out by Steve Smith in a very public manner pre-game last week, Jeudy went on to record a season-low in catches (three) and yards (14) against the Chiefs.
For those among us who are keeping track, that game occurred on Oct. 12, a day in which Smith played on three times during his career:
- Week 6, 2003: 103 receiving yards
- Week 6, 2008: 112
- Week 6, 2014: 110
There is no shortage of smoke around Jeudy when it comes to the Halloween trade deadline, and maybe that helps his stock rebound. For now, he ranks outside of my top 32. If you had it ranked like that every week this season, you’d have a perfect record! Until I see something change, I’m not interested in playing Jeudy.
COURTLAND SUTTON WITH THE ONE-HANDED TD 😱 pic.twitter.com/9l12fZMUUr
(via @Broncos)— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 13, 2023
Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s acrobatic touchdown saved the day for fantasy managers and gave him a score in four of his six games this season. He certainly appears to have the trust of Wilson more than Jeudy at this point, and his lower aDOT role helps elevate his floor, which is a valuable trait, given that this offense is going to offer more than a few dud performances.
The ceiling is capped by his role, and the fact that he’s averaging just a tick over six targets per game makes him my preferred receiver on this team and an average Flex play in this spot.
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave benefited from a mini-bye in Week 5 and was able to pass through concussion protocol without having to miss a game. The rookie didn’t make any big plays against the Raiders, but he did catch six of seven targets while the rest of his teammates managed to pull in just 10 of 22.
He has had his chances to produce this season, but Love has just missed him on a few big opportunities. He’s not a must-start, but his efficient role in an offense that is going to threaten defenses downfield — thus opening up the middle of the field — is certainly worthy of consideration at a brutal position.
The bye week bonanza this week doesn’t impact the TE position in a major way, so you may not need to stream Musgrave just yet, but keep an eye on him. He could very well prove to be the second-most reliable pass-catcher in this offense.
Should You Start Jordan Love or Kirk Cousins?
Love is my highest-ranked NFC North quarterback this week, and — coming off of the bye — I think his floor is actually higher than that of Kirk Cousins without Justin Jefferson.
The matchup against the worst per-play defense in the league doesn’t hurt. Neither does having his full arsenal of weapons.
Should You Start Jerry Jeudy or George Pickens?
Give me George Pickens here. Yes, he comes with some risk (and plays with the lesser quarterback), but I trust his big-play potential in a game where I expect his Pittsburgh Steelers to be playing from behind.
Jeudy has yet to show us much of a ceiling in 2023, and, at this point, I need to see it before I assume it. Both are in the Flex conversation, but Pickens is a few spots higher as I chase his ceiling.