The Green Bay Packers‘ outlook evaluates the fantasy football value of Aaron Jones while the Carolina Panthers‘ outlook is centered around whether Adam Thielen can regain his early-season form.
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
- Spread: Packers -5
- Total: 36.5
- Packers implied points: 20.8
- Panthers implied points: 15.8
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love: In theory, the matchup with the Panthers should lend a level of confidence for QB streamers to flirt with Love, but I’m not tempted.
He hasn’t finished as a top-15 quarterback in consecutive games after three straight top-10s, a dip in production that lines up with the health of Christian Watson’s hamstring. Add in an injury to Jayden Reed and there is far more risk in betting on Love than there is reward in betting against Carolina.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: In his return to action after missing nearly a month, Jones touched the ball 17 times for 69 yards against the Bucs. Included in that effort was a 20-yard run (his longest rush of the season), four catches (matching a season high), and an RB23 finish (his best since Week 1).
With Love displaying some growing pains with inconsistencies, it’s likely that another 15-20 touches is in store for Jones against the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league. That role has him sitting as a low-end RB2 for me this week, ranking favorably to D’Andre Swift and Javonte Williams.
AJ Dillon: A broken right thumb left Dillon on the sidelines last week and could do so again given the impact on ball security that this injury has.
MORE: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon Start/Sit Week 16
Dillon is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season and has scored once on his 186 touches. If we get word that he will sit out, you can cut ties — you’re not playing him in Week 17 after consecutive missed games.
Chuba Hubbard: This is no longer a committee. Hubbard was +30 in the snaps department over Miles Sanders last week and has carried the rock 22+ times in three straight games.
Hubbard’s role is that of a lineup lock, but his situation encourages us to tread lightly. We are looking at a Flex play with a narrow range of outcomes. He’s averaging under four yards per carry this season, and his role in the passing game has been spotty, though the sheer volume of work in an offense that lacks other options is valuable.
I’m treating Hubbard in a similar fashion as I am Najee Harris. He’s a fine option that I’m not excited about playing but will take my medicine and plug him in.
Wide Receivers
Christian Watson: With a pair of top-10 finishes, the 2022 version of Watson was starting to emerge prior to this hamstring injury. Yet, a nagging injury like this for a receiver whose skill set is centered around speed is a major concern.
Does Watson return for this game? If he does, does he make it through its entirety?
There are no shortage of moving pieces when it comes to evaluating Watson as it is, so when you toss in the up-and-down nature of Love, we’re looking at a player that carries more risk than I’m willing to take on at this point in the season.
If you’re desperate and he’s active, you can take a shot. If I have Watson, I’d rather be a week late than a week early and need him to prove his health before he earns my trust.
Jayden Reed: Keep an eye on his health (toe) as we near the weekend, but as long as he gets a clean bill of health, Reed is playing for you.
His 17-yard toe-tap touchdown last weekend against the Bucs was about as pretty as it gets, and it helped Reed finish as a top-25 receiver for the fifth time in six games. The rookie has pretty clearly moved into the WR1 role in this Packers offense, and while he has a higher target expectancy should Watson sit, I’m playing him either way.
Adam Thielen: The veteran receiver dropped what should have been a short touchdown last week. That fueled his third finish outside of the top 50 wide receivers in a four-game stretch.
Early this season, Thielen was a reliable option, but we’re a ways away from that. At this point, I’d rather bet on Josh Downs in an extended role or the sudden king of the end zone in Diontae Johnson.
Jonathan Mingo: Some players are assets in your fantasy playoffs while others are options that I’m watching closely with an eye on next season. Mingo is the latter.
The rookie ran a route on 93.3% of Carolina’s dropbacks last week, per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet, and has averaged an impressive 7.2 targets per game over his past six.
I like what I’ve seen from Mingo, and his potential to grow with Bryce Young is interesting long term. However, without a top-30 finish on his 2023 résumé, he’s not a player I’m considering starting this week.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft: The third-round rookie has been making his impact felt in this developing Packers passing game, and the Panthers aren’t exactly the type of defense that figures to slow that momentum.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Kraft has a 25+ yard catch in three of his past five games and has scored in two of four contests. This is a young offense that lacks a true target earner, thus leaving the door open for Kraft to see a handful of opportunities against arguably the worst team in the NFL.
Love may not inspire great amounts of confidence given his lack of consistency, but you’re going to notice that all of the TE streamers come with significant downside under center.
Should You Start Chuba Hubbard or Jerome Ford?
I’m not sure that either back carries much scoring equity given the limitations of their respective offenses, so give me the RB who figures to have more bites at the apple in Hubbard.
The Panthers have committed to the run and to Hubbard, for better or worse. I don’t think the banged-up Packers score enough to script them out of that plan, thus making a fourth consecutive 20-carry game very possible for Hubbard.
If he reaches that mark — or even approaches it — he’s the percentage play over Jerome Ford, who is struggling to clear 12 carries these days.
Should You Start Tucker Kraft or Dalton Schultz?
I have Dalton Schultz a few spots higher with the understanding that C.J. Stroud will be back under center and offer the Texans an offensive floor that Love struggles to provide the Packers with on a consistent basis.
Both are viable plays at the position due to injuries around them and the available target shares. I simply trust the quality of targets heading toward Schultz more than I do for Kraft.
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