The Green Bay Packers found their stride late in the season and took the San Francisco 49ers to the wire in the playoffs. Much of this was manufactured by Jordan Love channeling the great Packer quarterbacks before him. With that being said, Matt LaFleur is among the top coaches in the league, and the Packers look to be formidable once again, despite the huge contract given to Love.
Green Bay Packers Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +1900
- NFC Odds: +800
- NFC North Odds: +230
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -155/+125
Packers Offense
The Packers were seventh overall in EPA (expected points added), driven largely by their third-ranked passing game. Love in particular finished fifth overall in EPA per drop back. From Week 9 through the end of the season, Love was third overall, just barely behind Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.
While losing Aaron Jones is unfortunate, the Packers will not miss a beat, replacing him with Josh Jacobs. However, the true key to unlocking this offense in 2024 will be establishing a dominant top wideout. All of the current wide receivers for the Packers are talented and super young, but they need one to step up and become an alpha.
Of 131 pass catchers with over 300 routes run, Jayden Reed ranked 22nd in yards per route run with 2.05. While this is great, he only amassed 793 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 64 catches and 94 targets. Ideally, he can keep the efficiency in 2024 while increasing the volume.
Packers Defense
The Packers’ defense was 23rd in the league last season, mainly from linebacker and safety play. Per TruMedia, the Packers ranked 27th in defensive passing EPA when in middle of field closed coverage.
Former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley joins the Packers as defensive coordinator this season and will employ free agent acquisition Xavier McKinney at safety. Hafley in his tenures at both Boston College and Ohio State was known for his single-high safety looks, meaning he will almost immediately help improve that aspect of the defense.
McKinney is the perfect safety for Hafley’s defense because of his effectiveness as a single-high safety. Edgerrin Cooper also looks to fill a hole on this defense as De’Vondre Campbell is no longer a Packer.
One Betting Trend To Know
The “over” hit in 58.8% of Packers games last season, good for fifth in the league. Since LaFleur took over in 2019, they are 12th in the league in hitting the over.
Best Bet for Packers in 2024
The NFC North is a tough division this year, so tough that none of the four teams are favored to win the division.
This means that there is good value in picking the Packers to win the division (+230). My best bet, however, is either taking Love to win MVP (+1400) or taking the new category at DraftKings, “MVP + SB Winner,” and betting Packers + Love (+6000).
The reasoning for this is rooted in how aggressive his ascension was last season. While it is likely this half-season performance was a fluke, +1400 is an implied probability of 6.67% while +6000 is 1.64%. I think that either of these things is worth a sprinkle.
Ben Rolfe’s Packers Best Bet
Pick: Jordan Love to throw for over 27.5 TD passes (-110 at DraftKings)
This number does not make much sense, given that Love had 32 passing touchdowns last season. The expectation is that the Packers will be a better team than they were last season. Their over/under is set at 9.5 wins, which is 0.5 more than they achieved last year.
Therefore, it does not seem logical that Love would not progress at QB, let alone drop off by five passing touchdowns this season. Per TruMedia, Love achieved those 32 passing touchdowns despite the Packers having a below-average 51.6% conversion rate inside the red zone.
I expect Love to take a step forward in his second full season, and he should be capable of achieving close to the 5.5% touchdown rate he achieved in 2023.