The New York Giants (6) will travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings (3) in the fourth Wild Card matchup of the weekend. This will be the second time these teams have met this season, with the last matchup being held on Dec. 24 when the Vikings pulled away with a game-winning field goal. Let’s look back on that game, along with the rest of the available information from this season, to make our Giants vs. Vikings prediction.
Giants vs. Vikings Prediction
| Team | Off EPA | Def EPA | Pass EPA | Pass D EPA | Net EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 0.034 (9th) | 0.046 (28th) | 0.058 (12th) | 0.048 (20th) | -0.012 (18th) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.004 (18th) | 0.005 (16th) | 0.069 (10th) | 0.054 (21st) | -0.001 (12th) |
The last time these two teams played each other, the Vikings took the game with a franchise-record 61-yard field goal. Vegas seems to think that was representative of their overall quality – the Vikings are favored by three points at home against a Giants squad that has cooled down significantly in the second half of the season.
The Vikings, with a better record, are seemingly a much better squad. But Minnesota has been fighting the notions that they’re “frauds” all season. With so many close games in their record, they’ve been one of the few teams all season with an overwhelmingly winning record and a negative point differential.
The Giants were fighting this perception as well, but their record caught up with them in a way the Vikings’ record didn’t. They finished the season 9-7-1 with a virtually identical point differential.
Point differential is far better than win percentage when predicting future team performance, but it can still be crude. It can be swung by low-frequency, high-impact events like pick-sixes, special teams scores, and fluky turnovers.
More stable measures say similar things about the Vikings and Giants. They both hover around the league average in net expected points per play (12th to 18th in the Vikings’ favor), success rate (12th to 16th in the Giants’ favor), net drive success rate (14th to 19th in the Vikings’ favor), DVOA (21st to 27th in the Giants favor) and so on.
From a design perspective, the Vikings probably benefit from the Giants’ approach. The Giants blitz more often than any other team in the league, and the Vikings have been largely unaffected by blitzing teams, as they can heave the ball to Justin Jefferson when man coverage rears itself.
Though yards per attempt and completion rate drops when teams blitz Kirk Cousins, so does the turnover rate. His big-play rate increases, too, and it helps make up the lost difference. The EPA per dropback is virtually identical in those scenarios.
The problem for the Giants is that they pair their high blitz rates with the highest man coverage rate in the league. Zone blitzes have been effective against Minnesota, but traditional man coverage blitzes have not been. Cousins improves almost all of his statistics in blitzed situations when it’s a man coverage blitz and also sees a large bump in man coverage situations with no blitz.
Now that the Vikings have T.J. Hockenson to win underneath, they can attack all three levels of the field more effectively, and Jefferson has been a more effective deep-ball receiver since the Vikings traded for the tight end. Add in the fact that Jefferson may not have to worry about Adoree Jackson, and there’s quite a bit of possibility available for Minnesota.
On the Giants’ side, they don’t have nearly as effective a group of skill players, though they have a good rookie tight end in Daniel Bellinger. They have been able to get more out of their receiving group as they’ve returned to health, but Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Richie James aren’t the most impressive receiving corps.
Luckily for the Giants, the secondary for Minnesota has not been effective. One of the worst defenses in the playoffs, the Vikings have a high EPA largely because of their ability to generate turnovers in late-game situations. That typically does not repeat itself going forward, and there are reasons to think that a repeat opponent would be less susceptible to that kind of possibility.
The Giants and Vikings both have a premier young left tackle but have issues elsewhere. The fact that Za’Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux have been devilishly effective might make this game look like a slop fest, as quarterbacks on either side will constantly be under duress. The Giants do have some injuries to deal with – Azeez Ojulari and Leonard Williams may not be available for the game – but concerns about pressure exist for both teams.
Cousins has been much better under pressure than Daniel Jones has been this year, but that’s another example of unsustainable play that tends not to repeat itself.
MORE: Giants vs. Vikings Odds and Picks
At running back, we’ve seen some excellent highlights from Saquon Barkley, who has helped carry the offense through some difficult stretches. Dalvin Cook, for the Vikings, has done a good job breaking tackles but, for the most part, has been limited in the running game. Neither is living up to their potential, but Barkley should do a better job against an iffy Vikings run defense than Cook against New York.
Fully healthy, the Giants would have a good chance to keep pace. But for now, an injured Giants defense and a more effective Vikings offense, especially when matched skill for skill, means that the Vikings should come away with a win. It should come down to a big game for Justin Jefferson and some key moments on special teams.