Giants vs. Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones Tip the Scales as Runners

The rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants will look a lot different than either of their matchups in Week 14 or Week 18. Not only will it carry the atmosphere of a playoff game, but it will also feature different players healthy and available, as well as changes in their game plans to account for everything that they’ve seen thus far.

The Eagles won both matchups, with the first being a 48-22 beatdown that wasn’t close after Philadelphia’s first score. The second game was different, with the Eagles jumping out to a lead but struggling to maintain it despite the fact that the Giants were playing their backups and had nothing to play for.

We’ll look at the defining element of the game that could set the tone for the matchup, as well as the things that will make this game different this time around.

The Run Game Matters for the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants

There’s been something of a running theme for the analytically minded in the NFL — running backs don’t matter. In a way, this is meant to convey two things. First, the run game does not predict outcomes very well in the NFL and is overwhelmed by other factors when determining contributions to wins. Second, that even though running the ball well can contribute to wins, the production is primarily a product of offensive line play more than running back play.

That might be true generally, but it’s not true in the case of the running quarterback.

The statistic that many numbers-minded people look to when comparing the utility of a run versus a pass is expected points per play, which looks at the average points scored from a particular down, distance, and field position, and subtracts the difference between two plays to determine how many expected points were added between those plays.

It does a great job predicting NFL outcomes and can help us explain which teams have helped themselves the most with particular types of plays — like how some interceptions hurt more than others because they occurred deep downfield on third-and-long, instead of in the flat on 1st-and-10.

It also is why running the ball is generally considered inefficient. It tends to lose expected points while passing gains expected points. But when there’s a running quarterback on the field, running suddenly becomes efficient, and teams with QB runners gain expected points running the ball.

The Giants’ defense provides a bit of an exception. Teams gain expected points when they don’t have a running threat on the field and then gain substantially more expected points when they do have a runner at QB.

Only five teams in the NFL have given up positive expected points against the run generally: the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Giants. Against the run, New York has been the second-worst team in the NFL on an expected points basis and a yards-per-carry basis.

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But it gets worse when facing quarterbacks who are rushing threats. When looking at performance against teams where the quarterback has had at least one-fifth of their plays come on the ground — players like Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Malik Willis, Justin Fields, and, critically, both Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones — the Giants are much worse off.

The average run in the NFL loses about 0.060 expected points per play. The Giants, against teams without running quarterbacks, allowed those teams to gain 0.035 expected points per play. That by itself is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

But against teams with runners at the QB position, they’ve allowed 0.129 expected points per play. That’s not just bad against the run, that’s worse than all but three teams against the pass. It’s more efficient for teams with rushing quarterbacks to run the ball against the Giants than it is for any team to pass against the majority of the NFL.

The sample size is unfortunately limited, but it does include two games that are of critical importance — both matchups against the Eagles. Even if we throw out the second matchup because the Giants were playing backups and Hurts had a sore shoulder, the results are damning. New York is so bad at defending the run when there is a second running threat on the field that it’s less efficient than a typical Joe Burrow throw.

This will probably be the crux of the matchup. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has prided himself on his ability to stifle opposing passers but has fallen behind when it comes to the running threats populating the QB position. Perhaps because, for the past few years, it was his own team that had the only true threat that could run the ball.

Offensively, the Giants didn’t play their top players against the Eagles in Week 18 and put Saquon Barkley on a pitch count. Now, Barkley is fully healthy and ready to go.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia will be worried about the status of both Josh Sweat and Lane Johnson, the two most impactful players on their respective sides of the line. Both were forced to miss Week 18, Sweat for his neck and Johnson for his groin.

Giants rookie edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux has been one of the most productive players in the NFL over the second half of the season. The possibility of facing off against a limited Johnson or his backup should be invigorating for the young pass rusher.

Sweat is one of the few edge rushers who has beaten Andrew Thomas this season. Without him, it will be tough to generate pressure on that side. Not only that, the Giants will have more offensive linemen healthy — including guard Nick Gates — than they had in their Week 14 matchup. While the rest of the offensive line outside of Thomas is a mismatch for the Eagles’ powerful front, having a healthier line available to them will be a big boon.

MORE: Giants vs. Eagles Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Divisional Round

Sweat was a limited participant in Philadelphia’s most recent practice, but he was forced to miss the Week 18 game that the Eagles played their starters so that they could secure the first seed. The lingering back injury for Robert Quinn and the illness that popped up on the injury report for Brandon Graham makes that pass-rush unit — one that’s fallen off since the Eagles have refocused in order to stop the run — a potential liability.

Philadelphia will also be missing Avonte Maddox, who has played a key role in the slot. His absence will force C.J. Gardner-Johnson into a more exclusive slot role instead of a more flexible and creative role that defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon had designed for him, a big reason why he’s been such a turnover machine.

But the reality is that one injury matters more than any other — Hurts’ sore shoulder. Hurts was on the Week 18 injury report with a sore shoulder and was limited throughout practice. He did not appear on the injury report ahead of this game, which means he was a full participant.

That likely means Hurts’ shoulder is fine, but it’s not definitive proof. The injury rate in the NFL is 100%. Every player is playing through something. But not every player shows up on the injury report, only those that the NFL requires, which largely means any player who has missed time in practice.

Hurts might not be 100%, and that possibility might limit his ability to be explosive or willing to take hits in the running game. Without the ability to take those opportunities, much of the ceiling is gone for Hurts, as is the floor that a solid rushing game provides.

Hurts looked decidedly unlike himself in Week 18, and if there’s some lingering element of that in their matchup in the Divisional Round, it will be tough for him to lead the team to a win.

Giants and Eagles Won’t Keep This Coaching Staff

While it’s unlikely that every coach will be on their way out after the playoffs are over, it’s important to note that Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon have all drawn coaching interest this offseason.

Odds are, at least one of those coordinators is gone. All have impressive résumés, and there are reasons teams are interested in them. The team cultures they come from are ideal for any rebuilding unit, and they’ve all shown schematic flexibility and innovation.

After the Divisional Round, all three coordinators are empowered to conduct interviews. Kafka, in fact, has interviews scheduled with multiple teams after the conclusion of the game. Gannon and Steichen have completed their first round of interviews with the Texans and may be scheduled for more.

Every NFL run looks different. If the Eagles or Giants make a repeat run at the playoffs next year, it will be with a different team than the one they had this year. That’s an inevitability of the NFL, but we usually think of it to mean the players. It also means the coaches.