The New York Giants (-6.5, 40.5) and Carolina Panthers take their teams overseas to Germany for a battle between the two struggling teams.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. Longest Run Over 14.5 Yards
(Katz) I waited on this one all week to see if we’d get a better line. It briefly moved to 15.5. Once it went back down to 14.5, I had to pounce.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been the Giants lead RB since Week 5. Over that span, he’s had two massive games, torching the Seahawks and Steelers, to go along with three middling outings against the Bengals, Eagles, and Commanders.
What we’ve seen from Tracy is the ability to splash very hard in the right spots. I believe this to be the ideal spot.
Tracy has five runs of 15+ yards on the season. All of them came in his two big games against the Seahawks and Steelers. What that tells me is we need to correctly predict the team he is going to torch.
Well, the Panthers are coming off a big home upset win over the Saints and primed for a letdown. They allow the most rushing yards per game in the league.
With the Giants touchdown favorites, game script should not get away from them. They are committed to Tracy as their lead back. He should have plenty of opportunities to bust one against this soft run defense.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts
(Katz) In Week 3, the Panthers committed to Hubbard as their RB1. Since then, he’s seen 15+ carries in all but one game, a 36-10 loss to the Bears.
Ironically, the main reason Hubbard didn’t get there is because he was too efficient, averaging 7.46 yards per carry, his highest single game average of the season.
Even in losses, Hubbard gets to 15 carries. The Panthers lost by three scores to the Falcons, five scores to the Commanders, and two scores to the Broncos. Hubbard got there all three times.
The Panthers activated rookie Jonathon Brooks ahead of this week’s game. I believe that’s why Hubbard’s projected rush attempts line is this low. I think it would be 16.5 or 17.5 otherwise.
I’m not entirely sure Brooks even plays. And if he does, Brooks is still only likely seeing a couple of carries, at most. Expect Carolina to continue to lean on the back they just gave a four-year $8.3 million a year extension to. I would prefer not to play this at 15.5 as Hubbard has landed on exactly 15 carries twice, but would still do it. It would not be a play at 16.5.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
(Bearman) I am going to come out firing in the Germany game, featuring two of the worst teams in the NFL. No part of me woke up and said “I can’t wait to bet the Panthers”, but I also can’t believe the 2-7 Giants are a 5.5 point favorite over anyone. The G-Men, since their seemingly improbable upset of the Seahawks in Week 5, have lost four straight and have been outscored 98-50 in doing so. This is not a good football team and Daniel Jones isn’t getting any better.
The Panthers aren’t good either, but at least have played decent of late, upsetting the Saints despite being outgained by 180 yards last week. I also was looking at the under in this one with two bad teams, but the defenses haven’t been great either. I expect a low scoring game overseas, as most of them are, and will gladly take the 5.5 points in what is likely a 14-10 game.
Pick: Under 40.5
(Soppe) Another week, another pawning off of sub-par football to a different country. I think you’re probably well aware of what the offenses bring (more accurately, don’t bring) to the table, but if you need a little refresher – both rank outside of the top-20 in percentage of drives that reach the red one and outside the top-25 when it comes to yards per play.
I’m not here to claim that we have a couple of elite defenses on the field, but since Week 5, both are above league average in preventing touchdowns when the opposition crosses the 20. If the limited scoring chances result in three and not seven points, we are in business.
Under tickets have cashed in seven of the past nine games abroad that featured a total north of 40, a box the opening line for this game checked.
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Giants vs. Panthers Game Stats and Insights
New York Giants
Team: New York is averaging just 2.78 plays of 20+ yards this season (28th, ranking just behind Carolina’s 2.89 per game).
QB: In a limited offense, the “layups” have to overachieve, and that didn’t happen on Sunday against the Commanders. Yes, Daniel Jones completed 13 of 16 short passes, but those plays gained a total of just 46 yards — in essence, they were no better than handoffs that come with more risk because you’re putting the ball in the air.
Offense: The Giants are averaging a league-worst 5.1 yards per play on first down this season (since 2013, only the 2015 San Diego Chargers and the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles have posted lower marks for a season).
Defense: The Giants own the highest sack rate in the league (12.3%).
Fantasy: Five times this season has a rookie receiver played 70% of the snaps and been targeted on at least one-third of his routes:
- Malik Nabers (Week 2 at Washington)
- Malik Nabers (Week 3 at Cleveland)
- Malik Nabers (Week 4 vs. Dallas)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Week 4 at Houston)
- Malik Nabers (Week 9 vs. Washington)
Betting: Pick a side and commit — seven of New York’s past 10 road games have seen the spread (in one direction or another) be covered by at least a dozen points.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina is being outscored by 16.2 points per game, the third-worst mark through nine weeks over the past decade (2020 New York Jets: -16.3; 2019 Miami Dolphins: -19.1).
QB: When throwing the ball 10+ yards down the field this season, Bryce Young has completed just 20 of 51 passes (39.2%) with one touchdown against six interceptions.
Offense: We thought last season was rock bottom? Through nine weeks, Carolina is averaging 5.5 fewer yards of offense per game this season than last.
Defense: The Panthers have allowed the second-highest opponent passer rating through nine weeks (111.2).
Fantasy: Not only does Brooks loom, but defenses are wising up to Hubbard as the strength of this offense — in Weeks 8-9, 50% of his carries came against a loaded box (Weeks 5-7: 18.8%).
Betting: Underdogs have failed to cover four of the past five Sunday morning games.