The New York Giants entered Week 18 in a strange situation after their win last week meant they lost control of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They won their first game since Week 5 and just their third of the season in a barnstormer of a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, dropping themselves from the provisional No. 1 pick to a projected fourth entering the regular season finale.
The Giants still had a chance to finish with the No. 1 overall pick, but they needed a lot of help. They entered Week 18 tied at 3-13 with the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, and Cleveland Browns. The Giants sit fourth thanks to the NFL Draft tiebreakers, which use a team’s strength of schedule (SOS) as the first tiebreaker for teams with the same win percentage.
New York’s SOS is 0.551, with the Patriots at 0.467, the Titans at 0.515, and the Browns at 0.544. Let’s examine what this all means for the Giants’ No. 1 overall pick scenarios and break down their full range of outcomes in terms of pick position in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Update: The Tennessee Titans have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. The Browns have the second pick, the Giants at No. 3, and the Patriots at No. 4.
What Are the New York Giants’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
The Browns’ loss in Week 18 means that the Giants cannot get the No. 1 overall pick. There is a path to where the Giants and Browns could end up tied in terms of SOS, but unfortunately, that does not do enough to help Big Blue. New York beat Cleveland in Week 3, and if teams are tied on win percentage and SOS, then draft order is determined based on who has the worse head-to-head record.
The Giants’ scenario for how they pick No. 2 overall is simple. They need to avoid winning and hope that the Patriots and Titans both win. If one of the other teams ties their Week 18 game, New York would need to lose.
Now it becomes about the Patriots and Titans, who have both stated they will be trying to win on Sunday. Increasing their respective chances are that the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are locked into their current playoff spots and have nothing to play for. Therefore, both may end up resting players for some (if not all) of the game, giving New England and Tennessee greater chances than they may have had otherwise.
Our current metrics give the Patriots a 50% chance of winning, with Josh Allen set to play for at least some of Week 18, and the Titans a 48% chance of winning. DeMeco Ryans said Houston’s starters would play but did not state for how long.
If the Giants do win in Week 18, they could drop significantly in the 2025 NFL Draft order. The lowest that New York could fall is ninth, below the Jacksonville Jaguars (0.474 SOS), the Carolina Panthers (0.496 SOS), the New York Jets (0.500 SOS), the Las Vegas Raiders (0.544 SOS), and the Chicago Bears (0.555 SOS) if all of them win.
There is one very specific path for the Giants to finish below the Bears and drop to ninth, as they can only tie them in terms of SOS. However, with New York having a better record against common opponents (Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, and Indianapolis Colts), the Giants would pick below the Bears in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.