The New York Giants entered Week 17 in control of their fate regarding the 2025 NFL Draft‘s No. 1 overall pick. However, it all changed after they beat the Indianapolis Colts.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Giants’ scenarios regarding the No. 1 overall pick and what needs to happen for them to regain their position at the top of the NFL Draft order.
What Are the New York Giants Scenarios for the No. 1 Overall Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Things are not simple for the Giants after they won in Week 17. If they had just lost their final two games, they would have been guaranteed to pick first overall. Now, they need at least two other teams to win in Week 18 and some help in terms of tiebreakers.
The first NFL Draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule (SOS), and the Giants’ SOS is 0.550. Following the 4 p.m. slate on Sunday, New York’s SOS record was 148-121, which was 21 wins ahead of the New England Patriots (0.469) and 10 wins ahead of the Tennessee Titans (0.511).
There is no mathematical way that the Giants can finish with a lower SOS than either the Patriots or Titans after Week 18. Therefore, the Giants need both the Patriots and Titans to win in Week 18 while they lose to the Philadelphia Eagles. Intriguingly, all three teams could be facing backups next week, with the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and the Eagles all potentially locked into their seeding position.
The other team with three wins currently is the Cleveland Browns, who have a 0.539 SOS. The Browns face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18, who will be playing for their division. That makes it unlikely the Browns would win without opposition but not impossible. Therefore, the Giants need a five-game swing in the loss column to their advantage to get ahead of the Browns in terms of SOS.
There is still a chance the Giants could find themselves atop the NFL draft order. The Patriots and Titans are almost guaranteed to be playing backups for the most part, while the Eagles may still be competing for the NFC No. 1 seed. If that were to be the case, then the Giants could end up as one of just two teams on three wins, and then it comes down to SOS.
At the end of Week 17, when we can evaluate the full SOS requirements in Week 18, we should get a clearer picture of whether the Giants can still finish with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The biggest potential swing in SOS in Week 18 alone is 10 games, as each team can see their SOS change anywhere between 11-6 and 6-11.