The 2021-2022 College Football Playoff is here. And in the first round, the venerable Georgia Bulldogs face off against a Michigan Wolverines team that’s been similarly dominant on defense. Who wins the Capital One Orange Bowl, and advances to the National Championship? It’s one of the last games of the college football season — here’s our Georgia vs. Michigan pick and score prediction.
Georgia vs. Michigan betting odds and trends
- Spread: Georgia -7.5
- Moneyline: Georgia -300, Michigan +240
- Total: 45.5
Believe it or not, Michigan comes into the Orange Bowl as the higher-ranked team on the AP poll. It’s No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia, but Georgia is frequently advertised as the favorite in this matchup. The odds do well to communicate that.
The Bulldogs head into this game as 7.5-point favorites against the Wolverines. The projected total of 45.5 seems reasonable for two teams that have been defense-oriented this year. But the spread of more than a touchdown almost seems unfair for a Michigan team that may be more similar to Georgia than some realize.
Of course, Georgia’s pre-conference championship domination undoubtedly skews the perception — and it’s easy to see why. Georgia only allowed 83 points in 12 regular-season games, averaging under 7 points allowed per game. But they were humbled in the SEC championship when Alabama earned half of that 12-game total (41 points) in just four quarters. Alabama proved that Georgia is not infallible. The question is, can Michigan exploit the same framework that saw the Crimson Tide take home the SEC crown?
Georgia vs. Michigan prediction
As mentioned above, Georgia and Michigan are fairly similar teams — both for better and for worse. Both teams are buoyed by borderline dominant defenses, each laden with high-level NFL Draft talent. Even after the Alabama loss, Georgia is still first in the nation in points allowed per game (9.5). Michigan, meanwhile, is fifth in the nation with an average of 16.1 points.
Georgia’s defense reads like a star-studded cast in a superhero movie. Jordan Davis draws the eyes with his monstrous size and strength. But beyond him, Nakobe Dean is a fast, aggressive player with a penchant for making plays. Devonte Wyatt is a wrecking ball on the line. Lewis Cine is a homing missile in the secondary, and Derion Kendrick is a physical lockdown cornerback. The list goes on and on.
But then you look at Michigan’s defense, and you see a similar cast. The group is led by perhaps the best edge-rushing duo in the nation. Aidan Hutchinson, the Heisman runner-up, terrifies tackles in pre-game film sessions. And in doing so, he draws attention away from David Ojabo, who’s just as dangerous with his explosiveness, agility, length, and motor.
Quietly, the second and third levels feature plenty of talent for Michigan as well. Josh Ross, the team’s leading tackler, is a solid glue guy. And in the secondary, Vincent Gray, DJ Turner, and Daxton Hill are all excellent playmakers. Hill’s status remains unclear for the Orange Bowl, but when on the field, he’s a chess piece capable of matching almost anyone.
Michigan’s strengths match the Georgia-beating formula
Michigan’s defense isn’t quite as star-studded as Georgia’s, but we’re not comparing those two groups. We’re matching up Michigan’s defense with Georgia’s offense. And on paper, the Wolverines have what it takes to follow Alabama’s lead.
In the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide clogged the middle and prevented Georgia from playing their ball-control style. And then, when Georgia fell behind and had to pass with Stetson Bennett, Alabama’s rush — led by Will Anderson Jr. — made life miserable for him. The defensive backs capitalized on Bennett’s volatile play and generated turnovers, and Alabama pulled away.
Hutchinson and Ojabo play off of each other well, and they can generate similar pressure on Bennett. Up the middle, Michigan has talent, too. Mazi Smith and Christopher Hinton are more than capable of holding the gaps. The X-factor might be Hill’s presence, as it takes a perfect formula of coverage and pass rush to minimize Georgia’s offense. As inconsistent as Bennett can be, having Brock Bowers and George Pickens in his corner is a big plus.
It’s going to be a defensive game, but Michigan’s defense has what it takes to make Bennett crumble. On offense, Michigan can take a page out of Georgia’s book and play ball control with Hassan Haskins and a Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. It’s bold, but I’m taking the upset in a close, memorable slugfest.
Georgia vs. Michigan prediction: Michigan 21, Georgia 20