You want a high floor and potential upside to find a quality Flex play in fantasy football Week 12.
Does Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens or the Indianapolis Colts‘ Josh Downs fit the bill?
George Pickens Fantasy Outlook This Week
There was a point earlier in the season where it seemed like Pickens was leveling up to a matchup-proof WR2 in fantasy. That did not pan out, but Pickens is still a viable and talented receiver if you can manage your expectations.
Pickens has averaged only three catches for 27.3 yards and a 19.7% target share over his last three games. The firing of former offensive coordinator Matt Canada will add some uncertainty around the ball distribution in Pittsburgh. Still, I see that as potentially a good thing, as Pickens has not been fully utilized relative to his skill set, in my opinion.
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Pickens faces a very tough matchup in Week 12 against the fourth-ranked defense against the fantasy wide receiver in the Cincinnati Bengals. Pickens is ranked as the No. 40 wide receiver in our PFN Consensus Rankings. I see Pickens as just that, a WR4/Flex dart throw.
Pickens could always break a big play, but there is too much uncertainty and too little in the production profile of late for me to confidently put Pickens in my starting lineup in Week 12.
Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook This Week
The rookie Downs has shown a rapport with QB Gardner Minshew II since the latter took over under center. Unfortunately, his production has not been consistent.
Downs has had two, one, and seven catches in his past three games for an average of 3.3 catches for 40.7 yards and a 14.8% target share. Downs has solidified his position in the Colts’ passing game pecking order behind Michael Pittman Jr., but that does not always mean fantasy-relevant scores.
Downs has a plus matchup this week against the No. 9 defense against fantasy wide receivers in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We have Downs as the 36th-ranked wide receiver in our PFN Consensus Rankings. That puts Downs on the very edge of WR3 or Flex consideration in 12-team leagues, and I feel that is about right for him this week.
I see Downs as a low-floor/mediocre-ceiling play this week, and I would avoid playing him unless you need a few points and don’t have other options.
Should You Start George Pickens or Josh Downs This Week?
The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer and PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Downs is the player to start. His projected 9.8 points include a projection of 3.9 receptions, 40.7 yards, and 0.1 touchdowns. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, yet it outperforms the consensus projection for Pickens (9.1 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Pickens outperforming Downs as we can bank on his role in the passing game more, and I see potential upside in the switch in offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh.
I feel like Pickens is safer and has more upside than Downs. I wouldn’t try to jam Pickens into a WR2 slot, but if you need to fill a WR3 or Flex slot, I recommend Pickens over Downs this week.
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