George Pickens has only been in the NFL for two years, but he has flashed considerable upside. He enters 2024 as his team’s clear WR1 for the first time in his career.
In a new-look Pittsburgh Steelers offense, what does Pickens’ fantasy football projection look like?
George Pickens’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.3
- Receptions: 65
- Receiving Yards: 1,090
- Receiving TDs: 5.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Pickens This Year?
Through two years, Pickens has mostly been a splash play guy. You’re not getting any sort of consistency from him.
Last year, Pickens posted games of 22.7, 26.6, 35.5, and 20.1 fantasy points. It goes without saying that fantasy managers were thrilled to have him in lineups those weeks (if they started him). In his other 13 games, though, Pickens scored single-digit fantasy points 10 times.
Perhaps the most surprising stat for Pickens is his receiving yards. Maybe it’s just me, but it certainly doesn’t feel like Pickens amassed 1,140 yards last season. The fact that he did it with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph at quarterback is all the more impressive.
While that’s great for Pickens, it didn’t really do much for fantasy managers. Pickens only averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR36. In reality, Pickens was an elite WR1 four times and mostly unstartable every other week.
A big part of Pickens’ struggles are his splits with and without Diontae Johnson. Although Pickens only has four career games without Johnson on the field, Pittsburgh’s new WR1 averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game in those contests. In 30 games with Johnson, Pickens was only at 10.3 points per game. Limiting our window to last year, Pickens averaged 10.9 points per game with Johnson on the field.
Johnson is now the WR1 for the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers are moving forward with Pickens as the clear top option, which should enable him to see an uptick in his target share, which was 21.9% last season. I have Pickens projected to see 26.5% of the Steelers’ targets this season.
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While that target share is indicative of his NFL WR1 status, not all target shares are created equal. The Steelers project to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. They had a 48% neutral game script run rate last season, and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offenses have historically been even more run-heavy than that.
The PFN consensus projections have Pickens around WR36. My projections have Pickens at 13.39 ppg and a WR28 finish. Yet, I’ve chosen to rank Pickens at WR38.
I do not think Pickens will finish that low. However, I’m really just not interested in a WR receiving passes from Russell Wilson — and eventually Justin Fields — in an Arthur Smith offense.
I struggle to see the potential for Pickens to finish much higher than WR24. With a WR28 ADP, that’s not a lot of upward mobility. There are several players going behind Pickens in fantasy drafts who project similarly, and who I also believe to have much higher ceilings.
Pickens is still a WR1 for an NFL team. He’s a lock to lead this team in targets, and the Steelers could end up throwing more than we anticipate. He’s far from a terrible pick. There are just too many players I prefer. Therefore, I don’t anticipate drafting Pickens much this season.