One of the top rookie wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens projects to be a late-round pick in 2022 with a fantasy outlook that rivals the top rookie sleepers in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Pickens’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
George Pickens’ fantasy outlook for 2022
I have said it once, and I will say it again: George Pickens is a top-tier receiver in this 2022 rookie class. The Steelers knocked it out of the park, selecting Pickens. And no, I don’t mean one of those cheap Yankee Stadium homers. I mean, one of those that you earn at a real park like Citi Field. Braces for incoming comments. If Pickens had not torn his ACL coming into the 2021 season, this wouldn’t even be a talking point.
At 6’3 1/4″ and 195 pounds, Pickens is a bit wiry, but from a skills and traits aspect, he checks every single box. His body control is superb. He catches the ball away from his body as well as anyone. The way he gets in and out of his breaks is very similar to what people loved about Jerry Jeudy. Add in a 4.47 40-yard dash, and you have the makings of the position’s future in the Steel City.
Sure, there are some holes in his game where he needs refinement, but so does everyone else. Pickens has the skills on Day 1 to make a push for the No. 2 spot in this Steelers offense. The question, though, is what this Steelers offense will look like in 2022. As they head into a new period in their history without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers could be a relatively inefficient offense.
This can be countered by volume but not likely enough for Pickens or any Steelers to crack the top 10 repeatedly. Pickens, at the start of the season, needs to get his feet wet and up to game speed. Once comfortable, we should see his presence on the offense build. But for Pickens to hit the WR4+ range, it likely takes a massive falloff or injury to someone else as it is improbable Pittsburgh can support three fantasy-relevant receivers plus Pat Freiermuth in 2022.
How the Pittsburgh Steelers’ depth chart impacts George Pickens’ fantasy projection for the season
Speaking of those around him, the Steelers boast a solid group of playmakers. Najee Harris, the touches leader in 2021, enters Year 2 and carries 300+ upside with relative ease. Pat Freiermuth also heads into Year 2 and hopes to build on a highly-productive rookie season where Heath Miller 2.0 was the TE7 from Week 7 through the end of the season (11.3 PPR/game).
At receiver, Diontae Johnson is the target hog of the team. After 19% and 23% target shares to start his career, Johnson saw a ridiculous 28.5% last year en route to a WR9 PPR finish. He should once again lead the team and is the more valuable fantasy asset of the bunch.
Where Pickens can make his mark is in competition with Chase Claypool. As one of the biggest regression candidates of last season, Claypool went from a rookie-leading 11 TDs in 2020 to just two last year. What impacted Claypool more than anything was Roethlisberger’s arm.
As a vertical threat with average route-running skills, having a QB who is second-lowest in intended air yards and quickest time to throw means you can rarely stretch the field. Pickens, in my opinion, is a more complete receiver. His hands are better, as are his body control and route running. I feel he fits better with who the Steelers are than Claypool.
Monitor the QB situation for the Steelers as Week 1 closes in
Yet, the quarterback situation will have the most significant impact on Pickens. Pittsburgh heads into the season with a QB competition for the first time in a long time. Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett are set to battle it out for the QB1 role come Week 1. It does appear Trubisky is in the lead of this battle and likely represents the safest option. However, Pickett has been balling out in both training camp and in preseason games.
Pickett is more of a wild card — but one that could pay off massively. Pickett can make nearly every throw. Where he doesn’t blister your hands with pace, he nails in ball placement and touch. I could see him and both Johnson and Pickens developing chemistry on timing routes due to their route-running skill sets. Either Trubisky or Pickett is likely an upgrade over Roethlisberger. That can’t be an awful thing for fantasy.
Pickens’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 143, Pickens is coming off the boards as the WR58 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him right around the 12th round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, Claypool has an ADP of 104 (WR43), with Johnson at 38 (WR15).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Pickens is the WR57 and 142nd overall player. I am higher on Pickens as he is the WR46 in my rankings and 109th player overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
I have Pickens over Claypool for fantasy in 2022 and believe he will be the No. 2 target. One of my bold predictions this season is that Pickens could lead this team in yards.
The Steelers are making the right move by moving Claypool into the slot, but that is due to the overwhelming talent and upside Pickens provides. He has been the star of the preseason, lighting up the highlight packages and bringing it to games, too, including a picture-perfect toe drag in the back corner of the end zone. Am I surprised? Not one bit. I even tried to warn dynasty managers back in the winter of the hazards when fading Pickens.
Earlier, I said that someone likely needs to fall off for Pickens to have WR4 or better upside. I think that ends up happening to Claypool. Sure, he’ll be worth rostering, but does he crack the roster in non-bye week situations? We’ll see. At value based on upside and ADP, I prefer Pickens to either Johnson or Claypool. He is the guy I want in this offense on my fantasy football roster in 2022.