Should the George Pickens dynasty discussion be any different than it was this time last year?
Pickens picked up 1,140 yards in a season that featured questionable quarterback play, so is his fantasy football upside worth chasing for dynasty? Or are the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ limitations under center too much to overlook?
George Pickens’ Dynasty Outlook
The 2022 second-round pick has had his moments through two seasons, but Pickens has yet to truly flash the way draft partners Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have.
George Pickens can make some SPECTACULAR plays on the field.
If Pittsburgh makes an upgrade at QB this offseason, could Pickens be drafted as a top 20 WR in 2024? pic.twitter.com/lkQqkBiabY
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 26, 2024
Of course, not all development is linear. Pickens is averaging just 3.4 catches per game, but the 16.9 yards per grab is a strong indicator of future potential.
The quarterback tandem acquired this offseason figures to result in an increase in quality of targets for Pickens both in 2024 and moving forward. Add that with the departure of Dionate Johnson (Carolina Panthers), and it’s easy to take an optimistic point of view.
Naturally, with those big plays have come efficiency concerns (60.5% career catch rate), which has resulted in him being a maddening receiver to roster up to this point.
- List A: Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins
- List B: Tyler Boyd and Jonathan Mingo
Those two lists are about as different as it gets, but Pickens is the thread that ties them together.
- List A: Only players with more 125-receiving-yard, one-TD games than Pickens in 2023
- List B: Only players with more 5+ targets and under 40-yard games than Pickens in 2023
Pickens’ profile is that of a potential alpha receiver if given the opportunity. Dynasty managers have to do some guessing on that front, as the Steelers don’t currently have an answer at quarterback and never pick high enough under the tutelage of Mike Tomlin to draft a high-pedigree signal-caller.
As we attempt to weigh the risk with the reward, this is where Pickens stacks up for me at the position moving forward.
Pickens’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pickens land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pickens lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Rashee Rice | KC
15) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Malik Nabers | FA
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Stefon Diggs | HOU
23) Cooper Kupp | LAR
24) DeVonta Smith | PHI
25) Zay Flowers | BAL
26) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
27) Davante Adams | LV
28) Mike Evans | TB
29) Tank Dell | HOU
30) Jayden Reed | GB
31) Rome Odunze | FA
32) Terry McLaurin | WAS
33) Deebo Samuel | SF
34) Calvin Ridley | TEN
35) Jordan Addison | MIN
36) Keenan Allen | CHI
37) Mike Williams | NYJ
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Chris Godwin | TB
40) Josh Downs | IND
41) Courtland Sutton | DEN
42) Jerry Jeudy | CLE
43) Gabe Davis | JAX
44) Michael Wilson | ARI
45) Jameson Williams | DET
46) Christian Kirk | JAX
47) Troy Franklin | FA
48) Elijah Moore | CLE
49) Romeo Doubs | GB
50) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
Should You Trade Pickens in Dynasty?
Betting on raw talent can be risky, but it’s a good way to build dynastic upside.
Talent doesn’t slump. That’s not to say that talent will always thrive, I just prefer investing in raw ability over a profile that relies on a situation that could be derailed via injury.
That said, now is the time to acquire Pickens. To my eye, he still offers the upside he entered the league with. Yet, after two seasons, that’s unlikely to be the price you’re being asked to pay.
The Steelers’ offense can’t be worse moving forward than it has been of late, right? In 2023, Pittsburgh was a bottom-10 passing offense in …
- Attempts
- Yards per attempt
- TD rate
- First-down rate
You didn’t think I was going to let you go without highlighting similar profiles, did you? The last five receivers, prior to Pickens to rack up 170+ targets while averaging 16.5 yards per catch through two seasons:
- Josh Gordon
- Torrey Smith
- A.J. Brown
- DeSean Jackson
- Mike Wallace
There is some hit-and-miss among those five receivers, but overall, they’ve been profitable fantasy options.
- Smith: Career-high in receiving yards in Year 3, career-high in TDs in Year 4
- Brown: Year 3 was his worst season and his last in Tennessee
- Wallace: Years 3-6, WR15 in total fantasy points
Could Pickens end up on the Brown path? If so, getting into the Pickens business now is playing chess while the rest of your league is busy playing checkers.
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