San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle has been a member of the elite tier of the position in years past, but with the ascent of the younger tight ends, his stock is dropping.
Is now the time to buy, or does the industry have it right in worrying about Kittleās ability to sustain his annual fantasy football production?
George Kittleās 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 188 (127 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 61
- Receiving Yards: 834
- Receiving TDs: 7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Kittle This Year?
The Brandon Aiyuk situation certainly needs to be watched as you consider the value of everyone in this offense, but it could be especially impactful for Kittle.
Percentage of targets that came 15+ yards downfield in 2023
- Aiyuk: 40%
- Kittle: 30%
- Deebo Samuel: 19.1%
Kittleās rate spiked from 14% in 2022, as it has become obvious that the Kyle Shanahan/Brock Purdy tandem is increasingly interested in exploiting the mismatches the athletic tight end creates downfield. This situation is different than a receiver picking up specific targets because Iām not sure thereās much a defense can do.
That is, secondaries can tailor their game plan to take away (or at least limit) a receiver on the perimeter running wind sprints, but with Kittle doing his damage in-line, what can realistically be done?
An Aiyuk trade could give Kittle the one thing he has not given fantasy managers ā consistency. Last year, he only had six games with more than five targets, usage patterns that make it near impossible to compete with the elite at the position. The spotty target count resulted in six games with no more than 30 receiving yards, and thatās simply not going to get it done.
We know the upside that comes with Kittle. Last season, despite the aforementioned valleys, he led all tight ends with three games of 115+ receiving yards. The high-end production is going to happen in this efficient offense, but if he can offer a reasonable floor, a return to top-5 standing at the position is certainly possible.
If Aiyuk remains in town, the analysis around Kittle remains constant. His overall numbers from 2023 look good, but donāt forget that he scored on all three of his receptions against the Dallas Cowboys, which accounted for half of his season touchdown total.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football RB Sleepers 2024
Kittle is being drafted as TE6 right now, landing him in a tier with Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram — a trio that comes off the board in a different order every time I draft. Acquiring any of those options requires the use of a sixth-round pick. Thatās a little early for my liking to take a player like Kittle that had a solid season and yet still finished outside of the top-20 producers at the position on eight occasions.
Iām drafting Engram in this tier if I go that direction, but Iām more likely to either spend up in the late fourth round (Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid) at the position or wait and take multiple swings in the double-digit rounds (Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, Luke Musgrave, etc.).
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on George Kittle
In 2022, Kittle averaged just 12.8 yards per reception but scored 11 touchdowns. Last season, he only scored six times, three of which came in a single game. However, he was incredibly efficient, averaging 15.7 yards per reception.
As you will hear me say hundreds of times, volume is king. Over the past two seasons, Kittle’s volume has suffered.
During that span, the 49ersā neutral-game-script pass rate was just 53%, tied for eighth lowest in the league. Additionally, Kittleās target share, which was at least 25% from 2018-2021, fell to 19.8% and 21% in the past two years.
San Francisco has four incredibly talented playmakers: Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey. Itās simply not going to be possible for all four of them to produce every week. Someone is going to get left out. Kittle has his moments in the spotlight, but they are becoming rarer.
George Kittle already with 91 yards on 3 catches through the first quarter.
šŗ: #BALvsSF on ABC
š±: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pkwa8SXokx pic.twitter.com/dCXIn4Nk7B
ā NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2023
Over the past three years, Kittle has played 38 games with Samuel. In those games, heās averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game. However, in seven games without Samuel, heās averaged 22.4!
The sample size is much smaller for Aiyuk, but Kittle averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game in 44 games with him and scored 16 points in his one game without Aiyuk.
Could it be considered an indictment on Kittle that he struggles to earn targets when both Samuel and Aiyuk are active? Sure. But Kittle is a tight end. His job responsibilities extend beyond catching the ball. The fact that he’s one of the best blocking tight ends in NFL history is actually bad for his fantasy value.
Kittleās 2.3 yards per route run led all tight ends last season. He also led the NFL in yards per target and yards per reception. In the right environment, there’s no reason to doubt Kittle’s ability to be an elite fantasy tight end. I firmly believe he’s capable of producing 18 fantasy points per game. The 49ers just aren’t going to ask him to.
This year, in addition to the three previously mentioned names, the 49ers drafted WR Ricky Pearsall. While he’s not a direct threat to Kittle, he’s still one more talented player in the mix. The only realistic path to Kittle returning to 14+ points per game is injuries to at least one, if not two, of Samuel, Aiyuk, and Pearsall.
