One of the top tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game at his position. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Kittle’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
George Kittle’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Strictly based on personality, Kittle is the 1.01 of fantasy football. The “People’s Tight End” is one of the most electric players in the NFL, both on and off the field. And at a position that can lack week-winning upside, Kittle is as close to a locked-in, top-tier option as it gets. However, it’s not quite as simple as leaving it there.
Breaking out in 2018, Kittle led all tight ends with 1,377 yards and recorded career highs in targets (135), receptions (88), and yards per reception (15.6). Add in his five touchdowns, and his 16.2 PPR/game average set the tone for the following years. Over his next three seasons, Kittle averaged 15.9, 15.6, and 14.1 PPR/game while finishing as a TE1 (top 12) in 65% of his games played (52). One of the highest averages of anyone at the position not named Travis Kelce.
While an elite option, George Kittle’s fantasy ceiling is capped because of his blocking prowess and overall scheme
This “issue” for Kittle is he is just too darn good of an overall tight end. His blocking makes him elite and likely the most well-rounded tight end in the NFL. San Francisco is a team who wants to run the ball. Leading the charge is Kittle laughing maniacally all along the way.
In the red zone, where opportunities are so precious, Kittle was helping the OL. In 2021, he saw just eight red-zone targets, which is partly why he’s never had over six touchdowns in a season.
However, this is being more nit-picky than anything else, as no one would ever complain about 15-16 PPR points per game or his usage. Even in Deebo Samuel’s breakout, Kittle saw 24.9% of the targets. Yes, it was the lowest since his rookie year, but that shows how consistent he is in his role.
Also, you can basically pencil in Kittle to miss a game or two. He has played a full season once (2018) and has missed 13 over the last three years. I generally expect everyone to miss at least one game for numerous reasons (injury, rest, Week 18), but for Kittle, that tends to be multiple.
Due to the 49ers’ offensive system, Kittle, even at 25% or more of the targets, does not have the ceiling or volume as Kelce, Mark Andrews, or even Kyle Pitts. With that said, he’s one of the elite tight ends in fantasy football, albeit with a slightly reduced ceiling compared to his peers.
How the 49ers’ depth chart impacts Kittle’s fantasy projection for the season
Who is under center for the 49ers in 2022 is one of the most fascinating storylines of the offseason. While Jimmy Garoppolo has a proven track record though not someone who necessarily wins games, it was finally time to hand the keys over to Trey Lance.
With Lance, all bets or preconceived notions on how this team will operate go out the window. He is the wild card of the season. The dump-offs where Garoppolo felt pressure and hit Kittle could turn to rushes for Lance as he escapes the pocket. Running just 24.7 routes per game in 2021, Kittle’s ceiling is getting dangerously thin for his ADP if we begin to shave even more off his plate.
Kittle is still a top-six tight end for fantasy. The only TEs I’m drafting before him, in order, are Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, Dalton Schultz, and Darren Waller. He brings too much stability to a position that lacks high-end upside.
Despite the rhetoric, TE is deep for fantasy football in 2022. It’s just not top-end heavy. Kittle has top-three upside in PPR formats and, as one of the best after-the-catch targets in the NFL, should be on your shortlist come draft day if you want to go TE early.
Kittle’s ADP for 2022
With a 38 ADP overall, Kittle is coming off the boards as the TE4 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him at the beginning of the fourth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Kittle is a noticeable chunk lower as the TE6 and the 68th overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, that is nearly identical to where I have Kittle as my TE6 and 69th player overall. Something I’m sure Kittle would find very nice.
Yes, this is an absurdly tiny sample size, so prepare your grains of salt, but Lance targeted Kittle on just four of his 41 pass attempts in his starts (9.8%). Do I think this holds true in 2022? No, but is it likely to be lower than his 26% target share over the last four years? Yes, it almost certainly is.
Compared to the rest, Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, Schultz, and Waller all have 100+ target upside, with the top three possibly all over 120. Kittle hasn’t cleared 95 targets since 2019, and only once did he pass 110 (2018 – 136). There’s a genuine chance Kittle is No. 3 in volume behind both Samuel and Aiyuk.
No matter how much I adore Kittle, the others simply have more upside and fewer questions heading into 2022. But once they are gone, pounce on Kittle quickly as there is a gap between him and T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert.