San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is trying to buck the trend of his production declining each of the past four seasons. Undoubtedly an elite talent, there are volume concerns for Kittle in a crowded 49ers offense. Should fantasy football managers draft Kittle at his ADP this season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
George Kittle’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
After a solid rookie season, Kittle broke out massively as a sophomore. He caught 88 passes for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 16.0 PPR fantasy points per game.
That year (2018), Kittle was hyper-targeted and used downfield, as evidenced by his 15.6 yards per reception. Unfortunately, Kittle would never see that kind of usage again.
Since 2018, Kittle’s ppg has declined every season. By no means am I suggesting Kittle, at age 29, is somehow getting worse at football. In fact, he’s gotten better. I would go so far as to say he is the best pound-for-pound TE in the NFL. The reason he can’t sniff Travis Kelce in fantasy production is purely due to usage.
The 49ers have added more weapons since Kittle’s breakout season. Currently, they have Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey, all of whom command targets.
Last season, Kittle saw a 19.8% target share. That’s very respectable. The problem is the 49ers only attempted 512 passes. Kittle saw more than five targets in a game just seven times all season.
Additionally, Kittle wasn’t used downfield at all. His average depth of target was 6.8 yards, 26th in the league.
Is Kittle a Good Fantasy Pick?
Kittle finished as the TE2 last season. However, he only averaged 13.4 ppg. He was closer to the TE18 than to Kelce.
Kittle also only attained TE2 status due to an outlier touchdown rate. Despite seeing a career low in targets, Kittle smashed his career high in touchdowns, scoring 11 times on 60 receptions.
I love Kittle the player. He is one of the most talented and most fun players in the NFL. Unfortunately, he’s a bit of an overrated fantasy asset at his TE4 ADP, No. 46 overall.
I have Kittle ranked as my TE6, which is the lowest in our PFN consensus rankings. I’m not against drafting Kittle. I’m against drafting Kittle at the spot in which you must draft him.
Simply put, I am not spending a fourth-round pick on a volatile, touchdown-dependent tight end. I will draft Darren Waller ahead of Kittle … except I don’t have to.
Kittle is a great player, but he’s not someone fantasy managers should be looking to draft in 2023.