While the Seattle Seahawks appear likely to either extend Geno Smith or retain him via the franchise or transition tag, there could still be a chance the veteran quarterback hits free agency and changes teams this offseason. If Smith reaches the open market, where are his best landing spots around the NFL?
Geno Smith Free Agency Predictions
The Seahawks are in a unique situation. In Smith, they have a 32-year-old free agent quarterback who revitalized his career in 2022 after not serving as a regular starter for seven years. Smith led the league in completion percentage, ranked seventh in QBR, and finished ninth in MVP voting.
Seattle also holds the No. 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft as a result of last year’s Russell Wilson trade. That selection should give them an opportunity to select a young signal-caller, and their own pick at No. 20 could allow them to move up in the draft and target a specific passer.
MORE: List of Seattle Seahawks Draft Picks in 2023 NFL Draft
“We are totally connected to the quarterbacks that are coming out,” Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said at the NFL Combine this week. “This is a really huge opportunity for us. It’s a rare opportunity. We’ve been drafting in the low 20s for such a long time you just don’t get the chance at these guys. We are deeply involved with all that.”
An ideal solution for Seattle may include the best of both worlds: hold onto Geno while grabbing their next franchise quarterback in the draft. However, on the off chance the Seahawks don’t re-sign Smith, several landing spots will make sense for the veteran QB.
A Coaching Connection Could Send Smith to Tampa Bay
In a post-Tom Brady world, the Buccaneers appear willing to give third-year pro Kyle Trask a chance to succeed the Hall of Famer. But head coach Todd Bowles didn’t sound overly committed to the former second-round pick when speaking to reporters at the Combine this week.
“Kyle will compete,” Bowles said. “He’s the only one on the roster right now. He works hard – he worked at it in the offseason, and we’ll see what he can do. I think everybody’s coming into it with a clean slate with a new coordinator, so everybody will be learning at the same time.”
The new coordinator Bowles referenced is former Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales, who helped Smith revitalize his career in 2022. That relationship could appeal to Smith, a Florida native who grew up four hours southeast of Tampa Bay in Miramar.
However, the Bucs are still $56+ million over the salary cap. While they can become cap compliant by releasing a few veterans and restructuring others, clearing out enough space to sign Smith — likely at a price tag of more than $30 million per season — might be untenable. A lower-cost veteran QB might make more sense for Tampa Bay as it undergoes a transitional phase.
The Titans May Need a Ryan Tannehill Replacement
Speaking of teams going through resets, the Titans forged a new path last week and created more than $35 million in cap space by releasing left tackle Taylor Lewan, wide receiver Robert Woods, linebacker Zach Cunningham, and kicker Randy Bullock.
Ryan Tannehill remains on Tennessee’s roster, but it’s unclear if that will remain the case. New Titans general manager Ran Carthon said this week that he’s “excited about moving forward with” Tannehill, but the 34-year-old has a $36.6 million cap charge in 2023.
The Titans are unlikely to sacrifice draft capital to acquire Smith if he’s franchise-tagged by the Seahawks, but they might be interested if he reaches the free agent market. Tennessee could cut Tannehill in that case, but rival teams could be interested in acquiring the 10-year veteran, especially if he’s willing to rework his contract.
Swapping Tannehill for another aging quarterback in Smith might seem like a misstep. But Smith is two-plus years younger than Tannehill and offers a more intriguing profile. If Mike Vrabel and Co. don’t want to take a step back next season, Smith might be on the Titans’ radar.
The Saints Appear Locked in on a Veteran QB
Andy Dalton exceeded expectations for the Saints in 2022, but he’s a pending free agent. Jameis Winston remains under contract in New Orleans, but the tea leaves suggest he’ll be released in the near future.
The Saints received the No. 29 pick from the Broncos in exchange for Sean Payton’s rights, but that selection probably won’t put them in a position to land one of the draft’s top quarterback prospects. And after moving up to grab Chris Olave in 2022, New Orleans can hardly afford to sacrifice more future picks to trade up again.
As such, the Saints are in the veteran QB market. They were the only team allowed to meet with Derek Carr prior to his Raiders release, and they’re still interested in the 31-year-old despite failing to agree on a trade with Las Vegas.
Like the Buccaneers, New Orleans has a cap space issue. But general manager Mickey Loomis and cap guru Khai Harley can make the numbers work, and Smith would presumably come cheaper than Carr. Smith could give the Saints another competitive window that could last for two or three seasons.
Geno Smith Market Value, Career Stats, and More
Whether the Seahawks draft a quarterback at No. 5 or not, Smith’s most realistic outcome includes a return to Seattle. Cost is still a question, but Seahawks general manager John Schneider said this week that conversations with Smith’s team have gone well.
“I would say positive,” Schneider said of the Smith discussions. “All these negotiations, some go a little bit faster than others. Usually, when you’re talking about larger numbers, they take a little bit more time. Obviously, much more complex than different sports with guaranteed contracts. So there’s a lot more that goes into these contracts.”
Spotrac pegs Smith’s annual market value at $39.3 million, but it seems almost inconceivable Seattle will go that high. Smith is still a relatively risky proposition given his age and lack of track record, and the Seahawks could retain him for far cheaper via a franchise or transition tag.
MORE: Lamar Jackson Free Agency Predictions
A non-exclusive franchise tag would guarantee Smith $32.416 million for the 2023 campaign. Rival teams could sign Smith to an offer sheet; if the Seahawks failed to match, they would receive two first-round picks.
The transition tag would enable Seattle to save roughly $3 million, but it wouldn’t give them the right to compensation if they declined to match a contract proposal from another team.
There might not be enough interest in Smith around the league to generate a bidding war, so the transition tag could make sense for the Seahawks. But an extra $3 million would buy Seattle security and virtually ensure Smith’s return.
Geno Smith Career Stats
- Games Played: 62
- Games Started: 51
- Passing Attempts: 1,578
- Passing Completions: 991
- Passing Yards: 11,199
- Passing Touchdowns: 64
- Interceptions: 48