Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is coming off the ever-popular ninth-year breakout. After surprising everyone last season, Smith earned himself a three-year extension, and the Seahawks put even more weapons around him. Can Smith be even better this season? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Geno Smith’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson last offseason, the stage was set for Smith to be Seattle’s starting QB. While Smith starting Week 1 was obvious, him holding the job the entire season was not. So, for Smith to not only never even be remotely at risk of a benching, but to excel the way he had, was entirely unexpected.
Prior to 2022, the last time Smith was a starting quarterback was with the New York Jets in 2014. After two dreadful seasons, the Jets gave up on him. Smith spent the next seven seasons as a backup, and from 2017-2020, he didn’t start a single game.
After playing reasonably well for an injured Wilson in 2021, the Seahawks saw enough to give Smith a full-season audition in 2022. He passed with flying colors.
Last year, Smith threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, and led the NFL in completion percentage at 69.8%. Even more impressive, Smith was top five in each of deep ball, pressured, and play-action completion percentage. By every measure, he was incredibly accurate.
With one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL in DK. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith was able to put together 18.5 fantasy points per game, good for an overall QB8 finish.
Should You Draft Geno Smith This Year?
We’re going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade. In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early selections.
With that said, there are only three of them. Not every team can draft a quarterback early. A couple teams will be forced to draft one later. If that ends up being you for whatever reason, Smith is absolutely someone you should target.
Last season, the traditionally run-heavy Seahawks were actually sixth in neutral-game-script pass rate at 60%. Pete Carroll never let Russ cook, but he opened the kitchen for Chef Geno.
Everything points to this offense being built around Smith. While the Seahawks did spend another second-round pick on running back Zach Charbonnet, he provides a weapon in the passing game with his receiving ability. They also drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Round 1.
Despite Smith’s QB8 finish and his excellent supporting cast, his ADP is way down at QB16, No. 120 overall. I don’t understand it. The Seahawks have three wide receivers going in the top 36. Smith is my QB11.
My goal this year is to draft an elite quarterback in as many leagues as I can. But there are 11 other managers likely trying to do the same thing. It’s just not going to happen every time. If I don’t land an elite QB, I’m absolutely eyeing up Smith in the later rounds.
