As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of QB Geno Smith.
Geno Smith Dynasty Outlook and Value
Remember when Seattle traded Russell Wilson, and most of the NFL collective wondered how the offense would look like with Drew Lock? Smith said sit down and watch this, and in the process, had one of the most surprising seasons of last year.
After seven seasons as a backup for four different teams, Smith was named the AP Comeback Player of the Year, setting franchise records for completions (399), attempts (572), and passing yards (4,282). He became one of three Seattle QBs to throw for over 30 touchdowns in a year. Not only that, but Smith also led the entire league with a 69.8% completion percentage and was sixth in EPA+CPOE.
No surprise that Smith was one of the biggest overachievers when comparing ADP to production. QB35 on draft day, Smith finished as the QB5 overall, with 53% of his games inside the top 12 and 94% inside the top 24.
Sitting ninth in points per game at 17.9 PPR/G, Smith saved many rosters, especially in Superflex leagues where finding a reliable QB2 was nearly impossible last year on a consistent basis.
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From a dynasty aspect, Smith staying in Seattle was the best outcome. The OL took a step forward, and the draft picks made last year greatly improved this roster on both sides of the ball, especially with RB Kenneth Walker III and CB Tariq Woolen. Throw in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who was very productive, and there’s little reason to think Smith falls off a cliff.
Smith is either a hold or a buy for me, as I do expect him to be a starter in 2023. Staying in Seattle keeps Smith in the mid-QB2 range for dynasty with low-end QB1 upside for the 2023 season.
Geno Smith Fantasy Ranking
The collective dynasty community was waiting on what would happen with Smith, as it is difficult to lock him into the correct spot in rankings when you don’t have all the information. Currently, Smith is ranked as the QB18 in our updated dynasty rankings and comes in as the No. 72 overall player in Superflex leagues due to the increased premium for quarterbacks.
It is worth noting this is without any rookies in the rankings, which would push Smith down at least three but likely four spots when Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis are added after the 2023 NFL Draft.
If Smith can replicate, or at least come close to his 2022 season, he would be a value at his current ADP. However, last year was a clear outlier in his career. When trying to determine value, a player’s history and repeatability must be considered.
I find it more likely Smith does take a step back, but that is already being baked into his ranking, with room for it to shift based on him officially staying in Seattle.
While Smith was one of the best stories last season, I’d be cautious before completely buying in, as I would prefer to have Smith as a QB3 behind two locked-in upper-end options as not to have your championship chances riding on him delivering another spectacular season.