After a career year from Geno Smith in 2022, he failed to recapture the same level of success in his second season as the starting quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks.
Should dynasty fantasy football managers consider moving off of Smith ahead of the 2024 season while he still has a grip on the starting quarterback role for the moment?
Geno Smith’s Dynasty Outlook
It is hard to overstate how great Smith was in 2022. He was among the best quarterbacks in the league in tight window throws down the field on his way to 4,282 passing yards and 30 TD passes.
Unfortunately, those big plays were trimmed down significantly last season, with Smith throwing for just 20 TDs and 3,624 yards. In addition, Smith rushed for 211 fewer yards in 2023.
Fortunately for dynasty shareholders, Adam Schefter reported that Smith will be on the roster through today, which triggered $12.7 million to become fully guaranteed for Smith ahead of the 2024 season, strongly suggesting that Smith will enter the 2024 season as the starting quarterback.
In addition, Smith will have to ingratiate himself with a new playbook as Ryan Grubb — former assistant head coach of the Washington Huskies — is taking over as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator.
Grubb helped Michael Penix Jr. light up the college world with two exceptional passing seasons, with over 9,000 passing yards and 67 passing touchdowns over his final two years in college.
In addition, Grubb managed to utilize three great talents at wide receiver — Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan — all household names. This bodes well for one of the better receiver trios in the league — DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba — and the potential upside for Smith with this change at offensive coordinator.
This change could prompt some positive change to Smith’s immediate fantasy value, but ultimately, his drop in production last year makes 2024 a bit of a make-or-break season for Smith’s future value.
Smith’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Smith land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest rankings, featuring where Smith lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Derek Tate’s Top 30 Dynasty QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Lamar Jackson | BAL
4) Joe Burrow | CIN
5) Jalen Hurts | PHI
6) Justin Herbert | LAC
7) C.J. Stroud | HOU
8) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Justin Fields | CHI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Jordan Love | GB
14) Jared Goff | DET
15) Dak Prescott | DAL
16) Kyler Murray | ARI
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Deshaun Watson | CLE
19) Will Levis | TEN
20) Matthew Stafford | LAR
21) Kirk Cousins | MIN
22) Baker Mayfield | TB
23) Aidan O’Connell | LV
24) Geno Smith | SEA
25) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Derek Carr | NO
28) Russell Wilson | DEN
29) Kenny Pickett | PIT
30) Sam Howell | WAS
Should You Trade Smith in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Smith? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
The value of Smith in your dynasty league will vary greatly based on your league format. In 1QB leagues, Smith doesn’t have a ton of value past a serviceable backup/streaming option for the upcoming year. In Superflex or 2QB leagues, Smith receives a sizeable bump based on the scarcity of the position.
Smith’s disappointing 2023 campaign casts doubt on whether or not his outstanding 2022 season was an outlier for his entire NFL career.
Smith brings a little additional value with his capabilities as a runner but is far from being considered a top dual-threat option under center. His value is driven primarily by his production as a passer, which took a significant step back last year.
I would love to cash out on Smith’s current value to eliminate the risk of another disappointing, which could be his last season as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
If I can part ways with Smith for a future second-round pick, I would probably accept that offer.
Another approach could be to trade Smith for a struggling young wide receiver — Jerry Jeudy and Jahan Dotson come to mind — in hopes of getting a younger asset for an aging quarterback.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies
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