New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is coming off a very strong rookie season that could’ve been even better had he not been held back by poor quarterback play. With a massive upgrade in the form of Aaron Rodgers, is the sky the limit for the talented sophomore receiver? What is Wilson’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Outlook
Drake London may have been the first wide receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, but Wilson arguably had a better prospect profile. With 4.38 speed, early declare status, and elite college production, it would have been a major upset if Wilson wasn’t an incredible NFL player.
Sure enough, it didn’t take long for Wilson to establish himself as one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL. He immediately became the Jets’ WR1, catching 83 of 147 targets for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns.
As a rookie, Wilson averaged 12.7 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR30. It was a great start to his career, but one he’ll have to build on tremendously if he is going to justify his lofty price in 2023 fantasy drafts. So, can Wilson do it?
In his debut season, Wilson immediately proved to be a guy that commands targets. His 24.9% target share was 21st in the league, and his 26.9% target per route run rate was 16th. Even as a rookie, Wilson was already commanding volume at a high rate.
The thing about Wilson’s rookie season is that it was even better than the final numbers suggest. He already proved to be mostly QB-proof — emphasis on “mostly.”
Wilson was able to overcome having to play with Joe Flacco or Mike White, but he couldn’t overcome Zach Wilson.
Last season, Garrett averaged 17.3 ppg when playing with anyone other than Zach Wilson. With Zach, Garrett averaged just 8.8 ppg. He played nine games with him and eight without. Essentially, Garrett was an every-week WR1 without Zach and unstartable with him.
This season, the sophomore receiver will have a slightly better guy throwing him the ball. Some dude named Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps you’ve heard of him.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Wilson at His ADP?
As has become commonplace in modern fantasy football, progression is baked into Wilson’s ADP. We see this all too often with sophomore wide receivers. We know they’re good at football. We know they will get better. So, fantasy managers must pay for the break out in advance.
It’s not always worth it, though. Wilson has a lofty WR10 ADP, No. 19 overall. Fantasy managers who fully believe in him are hoping he becomes Rodgers’ new Davante Adams. Given Wilson’s cost, he’s going to have to be. The thing is, I believe he can do it.
Wilson is 23 years old and nowhere near his final form. Yet, he just gave us eight games of WR1 production as a rookie with the likes of Flacco and White.
My projections have Wilson catching 107 passes for 1,457 yards and 9.8 touchdowns. That comes out to 18.5 ppg and a WR8 finish.
I have Wilson ranked at WR9. He is very worthy of being your fantasy team’s WR1. Given the track record of Rodgers’ WR1, all it would take for Wilson to be even better than I have him projected is a couple more touchdowns. A season of 20 points per game is well within Wilson’s range of outcomes.
Sophomore wide receivers are historically very good investments in fantasy football. Wilson should only add to the list.