For the second consecutive season, fantasy football managers are paying for a Garrett Wilson breakout in advance.
Presumably, as talented as we think he is, and now with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, is this the year the New York Jets WR becomes an elite WR1 in fantasy?
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Forecast
I’m going to open with the strongest argument in favor of Wilson. Hopefully, you read my article regarding how the performance of wide receivers as a rookie is very predictive of their future upside. If not, you can find it here.
Since 2011, WRs who record at least 900 receiving yards as rookies produce a WR1 season 66.7% of the time. When you get over 1,000 yards, you can expect to get at least a high-WR2 season 91% of the time. Over 1,100 yards? That’s only happened four times since 2011. Each one of those WRs was once an elite WR1.
Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards as a rookie while mostly playing with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Historically speaking, Garrett Wilson would have to be a major outlier to not be a fantasy WR1 within the next year or two.
With that said, Wilson as a WR1 is still at the projection stage. Simply put, we haven’t seen it … and it’s been two years.
Wilson averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie and 12.5 ppg as a sophomore. He hasn’t come close to finishing as a WR1. Yet, his ADP is WR8, No. 11 overall.
There’s certainly an argument to be made for passing on Wilson and waiting until we see evidence that his lofty price tag is justified. However, I would posit that we have seen it. You just have to know where to look.
As a rookie, Wilson actually was a WR1. Not over the whole season, of course. But if you isolate the games he did not play with Zach Wilson, Garrett averaged over 17 fantasy points per game.
Last year, everything about Wilson’s usage screamed WR1. He commanded an elite 30.1% target share. The problem was once again his quarterback play.
Wilson’s efficiency metrics were awful, but not because of him. He averaged just 1.56 yards per route run because fewer than 70% of his targets were catchable. He had 42.7% of his team’s air yards.
Yet, his 6.2 yards per target was 87th in the league. That’s what happens when a player has nearly 1,000 unrealized air yards.
Wilson didn’t have any massive weekly performances last season. He topped 20 fantasy points just once at 20.1, which was his best game of the season. But the target floor was there. Now imagine that same volume with an infinitely more accurate quarterback.
There’s certainly risk associated with assuming a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles will both stay healthy and play near the level we’re accustomed to seeing from him. However, I’ve seen enough from Wilson to believe it’s worth paying for a 16-18 point-per-game season ahead of time.
Wilson is my WR8, which is right in line with consensus. If you pick at the back end, Wilson and, reluctantly, A.J. Brown are a very nice pair, with Brown providing safety and Wilson providing upside.
I would have no problem with Wilson as the WR1 of my fantasy team.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Analysis for Garrett Wilson
Now, questions remain about which version of Rodgers fans will see in 2024 and how that could impact Wilson’s fantasy ceiling entering his third year in the league. However, if Rodgers is capable of playing at even an average starter’s level this season, then it would likely be considered a significant upgrade for Wilson.
Wilson’s target competition isn’t exactly elite either. Breece Hall led all running backs last year with 76 receptions last year, but players like Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, and Tyler Conklin shouldn’t exactly threaten Wilson’s already elite 30.1% target share in 2024.
Wilson’s average draft position (ADP) at No. 13 overall, going off the board in the second round as the WR8, certainly suggests fantasy managers are sipping the Kool-Aid with 2024 potentially being a breakout fantasy year for the former Ohio State Buckeye because he is being drafted far closer to his ceiling than his established floor through the first two years of his career.
Is drafting Wilson ahead of Nico Collins, Chris Olave, and Adams a bit aggressive? Perhaps. But the serviceable production we’ve seen from Wilson over the last two years — despite the clear lack of competent quarterback play — leaves a plausible projection for a career year for the Jets WR in 2024.