Gardner Minshew likely lost his starting job when the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence, but a chance for him to earn a new one might have opened up. The injury to Carson Wentz turned the Indianapolis Colts from a potential contender into a team that is potentially in desperate need of quarterback help. The advanced metrics suggest that trading for Minshew could be the answer to the Colts’ woes.
The strange beginning of Gardner Minshew’s career
Minshew has undoubtedly had an unconventional start to his career. He took over for an injured Nick Foles in Week 1 of the 2019 season and quickly became a leaguewide sensation.
Foles later returned, but Minshew was reinstated as the starter not long after. Through 14 games, 12 as a starter, he totaled an impressive 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions.
Unfortunately, 2020 wasn’t nearly so successful for Minshew. While his statistics from the eight games he started (2,259 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions) aren’t awful, he lost seven of those games.
Throughout the season, he struggled with injuries and was eventually benched for Mike Glennon.
In fairness to Minshew, Glennon and the other quarterback to start for Jacksonville, Jake Luton, did not succeed more than Minshew did in 2020. The pair couldn’t win a single game between them, so Minshew clearly wasn’t the Jaguars’ only problem.
Still, he certainly didn’t do his career any favors last season. You might wonder why any team, let alone a potential contender like the Indianapolis Colts, would want to trade for him.
The advanced metrics suggest that Minshew can still provide value to an NFL offense
While Minshew’s 2020 season was a disaster in many ways, the advanced metrics indicate that he actually improved during his second NFL season.
That might be difficult to believe, so let’s turn to the Offensive Value Metric (OVM). The OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Movement to evaluate players based on how much they contributed to their statistics, rather than the statistics themselves.
As a rookie, Minshew was one of the worst quarterbacks on this metric. He received a grade of just 17.57, the third-lowest earned by any player at his position.
In other words, despite his success, Minshew was one of the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL in 2019.
However, 2020 was an entirely different story. Minshew’s statistics fell, but his effectiveness rose dramatically, earning him a grade of 25.36. That OVM grade ranked fifteenth among all qualifying quarterbacks last season.
If he continues to improve, the box score statistics should catch up eventually, especially if he is playing on a better team than the 2020 Jaguars.
Minshew’s weekly performances also improved
For a closer look at Minshew’s dramatic improvement between 2019 and 2020, let’s examine his weekly grades from each cohort.
The charts below show his OVM grades from each week of the 2019 and 2020 seasons in which he qualified for one, marked by the black dots. For comparison, the yellow lines represent the league-average regular-season grades for quarterbacks during those seasons.
During his rookie year, Gardner Minshew struggled immensely. He was rather inconsistent, and his overall level of play was quite low, earning him two grades below 10 points and only five above 20. On the whole, his grades were well below the league average, the one exception being a grade of 38.93 in Week 1, easily his best performance.
Minshew was still inconsistent in 2020, but his average level of play increased dramatically. In fewer games, he had more grades above 20 points — six in total. Additionally, he earned four above 30 and even one above 40, the first such game of his career.
Examining the advanced metrics involved in Gardner Minshew’s OVM improvements
Understanding the improvement in Minshew’s OVM grades in his second season requires an examination of the advanced metrics involved in creating them. Take a look at the chart below.
| IAY | CAY | Agg. % | Comp. % | Comp. % +/- | |
| 2020 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 66.1 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 15.5 | 60.6 | -5.2 |
As you can see, most of Minshew’s metrics stayed about the same between the two seasons.
He threw the ball slightly further downfield across all of his attempts (IAY) and marginally less far on his completions (CAY). He also threw into tight windows (Agg. %) about 1% more often during his sophomore season.
The most significant difference was in his ability to complete passes. Minshew completed just 60.6% of his pass attempts, the seventh-lowest percentage in the NFL. According to the NFL’s projections, that number was 5.2% lower than expected, the second-worst differential among all qualifying players.
In 2020, Minshew’s completion percentage rose to 66.1%; still not incredible, but certainly a substantial improvement. More impressively, the NFL’s projections suggest that said percentage was actually 2.9% higher than it should have been, the eighth-best differential.
In short, between his first two seasons, Minshew threw the ball about the same distance downfield and into just as tight of windows, but completed passes at a far higher rate.
Minshew could be precisely what the Indianapolis Colts need
If Carson Wentz misses significant time this season, the Indianapolis Colts will need a replacement.
Minshew might be the perfect candidate. He struggled last season statistically, so the price for him shouldn’t be exorbitant. However, he has the talent to be an immediate improvement to a roster that has the capacity to compete for the playoffs right away.
Naturally, such a move would benefit Minshew as well, giving him another chance to prove himself as a starter, this time on a team that is actually competent. And if he continues to improve, he might keep the job even if Wentz returns from his injury.
Lucas Ellinas is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @Lucas_Ellinas.