It’s the final game of the year, and you want to celebrate. You’re aware of how sharp the NFL betting standard markets are, so you want to take a look at some fun Super Bowl prop bets to make the game that much more interesting.
I get it. I’m no different than you, and that’s why I’m here — to try to offer a little bit of insight into those unique options so that you feel good about where your hard-earned dollars are going.
Many people are betting on these props, which is why they are there, but if you can enter with a leg up information-wise, then your expected value of each wager puts you ahead of most. Let’s get to it!
Top Fun Super Bowl 59 Prop Bets To Target
Jersey Number of the First TD Scorer, Over/Under 15.5
Understanding the rosters is the first and most important step in this bet that is offered at most books these days.
- No. 1 Xavier Worthy
- No. 1 Jalen Hurts
- No. 5 Hollywood Brown
- No. 6 DeVonta Smith
- No. 8 DeAndre Hopkins
- No. 10 Isiah Pacheco
- No. 11 A.J. Brown
- No. 15 Patrick Mahomes
- No. 26 Saquon Barkley
- No. 29 Kareem Hunt
- No. 87 Travis Kelce
- No. 88 Dallas Goedert
It’s not hard to see why the line was drawn where it was — you either get exposure to the receivers and quarterbacks or the running backs and tight ends.
My advice here? Bet on Barkley and/or Kelce to score if you want in the traditional first-touchdown markets. This gives you outs on the “over” for this bet at an enhanced price — bet the “under” here to hedge and give yourself a good shot.
First TD Betting Card: Barkley (+450 for one unit), Kelce (+950 for one unit), and “Under” (-110 for three units)
Pick: Under
Scoreless 1st Quarter
We saw these teams play in a Super Bowl two years ago, and 73 points were put on the board. For me, that is a large reason why we are getting a discount on this price tag.
Points per Drive in 1st Quarters, 2024:
- Kansas City Chiefs: 1.77 (15th)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1.67 (17th)
Points per Drive in Quarters 2-4, 2024:
- Chiefs: 2.46 (ninth)
- Eagles: 2.87 (fifth)
OK, so the offenses take a little time to get warmed up. Both of these offenses are capable of running the ball, even if done in very different ways. Philadelphia uses an imposing offensive line and the best running back in the sport to pile up yards in a traditional way while the Chiefs leverage the fear that Mahomes strikes in opponents.
But … both of these defenses are up to the challenge.
Defensive Rush Success Rate in 1st Quarters, 2024:
- Chiefs: 70.1% (second)
- Eagles: 66.7% (fifth)
Defensive Rush Success Rate in Quarters 2-4, 2024:
- Chiefs: 59% (23rd)
- Eagles: 61.5% (16th)
This game is going to see scoring chances, but a slow start is very much in the cards. Don’t rule out the idea that we could get maybe a seven-play drive from Kansas City that results in a punt and then a grinding drive from Philadelphia that nets points, but because of their style of play, extends into the second quarter.
That would work!
Pick: Yes (+950)
Xavier Worthy To Run for and Catch a TD
The rookie has seen at least six targets in eight straight games and has seen his average depth of target trend down as his first season has progressed. That puts Worthy in a position to see volume that is encouraging and comes with significant upside given his physical skills.
The touchdown catch isn’t likely, but it doesn’t take much squinting to see how he could get there as a featured member of the leader in pass rate over expectation during the Mahomes era.
When it comes to the rushing side, things get a little more complicated. That said, we have seen him run in three scores this season, and 69.6% of his attempts this season have come on the scoring side of the field. We are giving Andy Reid two weeks in a spot to make history — are we just supposed to believe that this beautiful mind isn’t going to be tempted to draw something up for a player with a rare trait?
For those thinking outside of the box, you likely noticed my note on his declining aDOT. What if a quick bubble screen is technically thrown backward and thus ruled a lateral? Not only could that be a rushing score, but it stands to bring the Eagles even closer to the line of scrimmage, thus increasing the chances for Worthy to get loose down the field.
Likely? No. But the ability to single-handedly make this a profitable Super Bowl is a price I’m willing to pay.
Pick: Yes (+3000)
What Color Tie Will Donald Trump Wear at the Super Bowl?
I hate swallowing chalk in these spots, but sometimes it’s unavoidable. Donald Trump’s party color is red and he’s voiced a lean toward the Chiefs, so why get creative?
The only other option that had my interest was “Striped” (4/1 odds compared to the 1/3 that red carries), but for a man in the public eye so often, we’ll stick with the more slimming bold color over stripes, which carries a two-thirds chance to not help out in that regard (vertical stripes are great, but slanted or horizontal ones are going to put the casual eye in the wrong spots).
I’m not overthinking this one.
Pick: All Red
First Song Performed by Kendrick Lamar
“Humble” is the heavy favorite in this market, and I think that tracks. It was the top song on multiple lists for an extended time and is still popular despite us being eight years removed from its 2017 release.
But at twice the odds, why not get some exposure to a different song with a similar résumé? OK, so “DNA” never topped the charts here in the USA, but it was inside the top five on both the R&B and rap charts, proof that there is national recognition to chase with this title.
Why aim for the greater payout instead of going with the favorite? Simple, our limited attention span. I won’t deny that “Humble” was (and still is) the more popular track, but baseball hitters don’t bat their best hitter leadoff. There’s value to be gained in holding onto your ace — in baseball, it gives a chance for runners to be on base, and in a halftime show hierarchy, it forces you to stick around for a little bit before your scratch is itched.
It’s obviously not a perfect approach, but it’s where I’m headed. The first song carries a high level of energy regardless of what it is, as it drifts from the first half of action on the field — the savvy move is to hold onto your hit for the two-hole, and I believe the Kendrick Lamar camp is a sharp one.
Pick: “DNA”
Last Song Performed by Kendrick Lamar
Who is sticking around for the entire halftime show?
My guess is that it’s Lamar fans and Lamar fans only. If you’re anything like me, this is the time to get up, order food, or research rest-of-game prop bets. That means that I’m going to miss the majority of it, but because I’m a part of our football-crazed culture, I’m not going to miss a snap of the game.
Thus, my line of thought here is that Lamar will roll with the most newsworthy and topical song in his arsenal. Reports surfaced during Super Bowl week that the rapper wouldn’t shy away from the controversial “Not Like Us” diss track, and I’m going to take him at his word. From my experience as an otherwise distracted football fan, the halftime needs to suck me in off the top and send me out in style as I prepare for the second half.
I went with his most mainstream option to get the festivities started, and I now have fireworks to close, a performance that will keep the discussion going as the game action picks back up — I don’t mind playing the favorite when it comes to these popularity contests.
Pick: “Not Like Us”
What Color Will the Gatorade Shower Be?
This is an inexact science, but purple (15/8) is installed as the slight favorite over yellow/green (2/1) with orange (5/1) being more of a long shot.
How do they land on that? Purple has cashed with Kansas City winning in each of the past two seasons, so why change a good thing, right?
In theory, sure, but why lay the favorite in a market like this? Not to mention the line is based solely on Chiefs data … I’m picking the Eagles to win, so I’m not putting much weight into it.
Growing up, I was always a lemon-lime fan and, according to Parade.com, I’m not alone. The yellow-ish flavor was voted the top option; that gives me confidence that, if I’m straying off the Chiefs path, that is the proper play. That said, I view this as a less savvy way of picking the game outright, so give me the Eagles over their choice of color when it comes to recovery beverage.
Pick: Yellow
