From a Heisman favorite and first-round lock to a Day 3 pick, the opinions and projections for Hendon Hooker remain as wide as the Tennessee offense. With just a week until the opening of the 2023 NFL Draft, Hooker remains the biggest variance pick of them all.
Hendon Hooker’s Roller Coaster 2022 Season Put Him on the NFL Radar
No reality show can match the drama, chaos, and storylines the NFL Draft can produce. And as usual, the quarterbacks are the main characters, each with their quirks and backstory. Is Bryce Young too small? Can C.J. Stroud be a playmaker? Is Anthony Richardson too much of a project? Is Will Levis the next big-arm bust? Yet, Hooker might have even more questions, despite not sharing the same spotlight.
Opinions will vary regarding the quarterback position, and Hooker is a prime example. In 24 games with the Tennessee Volunteers, Hooker threw for 6,080 yards and 58 touchdowns against only five interceptions. He completed 69% of his passes and added another 10 scores and 1,046 yards on the ground. But what put him on the map was his 2022 season.
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Hooker was the Heisman Trophy front-runner for the majority of the season. He led the nation in yards per attempt (9.5), threw two interceptions over 11 starts, and was a top-10 passer in completion percentage, throwing for 3,135 yards and 27 touchdowns as part of a high-powered offense under Josh Heupel.
Given how famished the NFL fans and teams were for a representative QB class, unlike the 2022 group, Hooker quickly saw himself jump from not just into the top-50 range but into the first round and eventually was viewed as a potential top-10 pick buy some.
However, Hooker’s season saw an unfortunate end when he suffered a torn ACL in a 63-38 loss to South Carolina. Hooker’s scintillating campaign ended, and with it, the chance to cement himself as the next QB behind Young and Stroud. That knee injury is likely why we are having these conversations right now.
Did Hooker’s Injury Cost Him a Chance To Be Considered Among the Top Group of QBs?
I don’t think there’s any debate Hooker’s knee injury significantly impacted his draft stock. Pre-draft medical evaluations are critical in today’s age, and they can start a slide. Look at 2010 No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford as a reason teams should be cautious regarding medicals.
The Rams invested an $86 million contract that included a then-record $50 million in guarantees before he ever played a snap. Bradford stated his shoulder was healed, but he was never the same player that he’d been at Oklahoma.
No team wants to be the one to pay a high premium for an injury-impacted player. Perhaps most critically, no one wants to do that when a quarterback is involved. Fortunately, in Hooker’s case, while he couldn’t participate in the NFL Combine or Senior Bowl, his medicals were positive, and he had a chance to explain his recovery process in person, hopefully easing the concerns of some potential suitors.
“I don’t think they would expect my leg to be as strong as it is now, 100% weight bearing by Week 6, doing lunges and squats,” Hooker said from the Senior Bowl practice field in early February.
“My doctor … has done a great job communicating how my recovery should be and how I should take care of myself,” Hooker continued. “I’ll be good to go by camp time, ready to compete, be better than ever.”
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But had the proverbial damage been done? To sum up the answer, yes. Former NFL QB Ryan Leaf even stated, “If he [Hooker] never tore his ACL, he would be in the top group.”
Due to the ACL tear, he might need to either miss or be very limited in his rookie season. But that is not set in stone.
Depending on how risk-averse a team is, Hooker might be off their board automatically. Why would you spend a pick on someone who might not play the first year and will be well into the second half of their career by the time their rookie contract expires? While the logic makes sense, several prominent names don’t believe that would be an intelligent decision.
Hendon Hooker Is a Better Value in the First Round Than in the Second
Huh? That doesn’t make sense. If someone comes off the board at No. 57 compared to No. 18, the math says they must be a better value, right? I’m sorry, but it’s not that simple.
Given the likelihood Hooker could potentially miss or be limited in his rookie year, by selecting him in the first round, teams get that additional year thanks to the fifth-year option provided to first-round rookies. This is the same line of thinking as ESPN’s Todd McShay, and he remains bullish on Hooker based on the year-over-year development.
“With Hendon coming off the November ACL surgery after the injury, yes, he’s 25 years old and turns 26 in January of his rookie year. But seeing his improvement year-over-year and knowing he’s going to have a learning curve from that scheme at Tennessee, I think he can use a year,” McShay said.
“And yes, he would be 26 going into his first year as a starter, presumably. But to me, I would draft him in the first if you’re a team like Minnesota. Or if you’re Seattle and you’re trying to trade back in. Because you’re going to get that fifth year. But my point is had they taken him late in the first round instead of taking him No. 53 overall, they would have another additional year.”
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CBS Sports analyst and former QB Danny Kanell doesn’t feel the ACL injury will end up playing as big of a factor as others.
“I get the concern with the injury, but here’s why it doesn’t make sense to me. Because of his ACL, he’ll miss an offseason. But I don’t think it matters that much for a quarterback who’s as bright as they get. Plus, he’s a quarterback who doesn’t rely on his legs. He utilizes them. And as far as the age concern, why does it matter if a quarterback’s 25? Hooker will be ready to step in from Day 1 and command respect within the huddle and the clubhouse.”
He took it a step further by calling Hooker a “franchise quarterback for the next 10 years.”
“Give me Hendon Hooker over Will Levis and Anthony Richardson all day long,” Kanell stated. “Hooker’s going to be the steal of this NFL Draft at quarterback, especially if he drops to the second round where you could stumble into your franchise quarterback for the next 10 years.”
Is Age Nothing But a Number?
The curious case of Hooker’s draft stock takes another turn when we get to his age. He’s 25 now and will turn 26 during his rookie year. To put that in perspective, he’s only a year younger than Lamar Jackson, who has played in the league for five seasons. I am not sure if we can simply say age is nothing but a number, and the previous history in the draft says Hooker would be an outlier should he go not just in the first round but in the first two days.
Only eight quarterbacks age 25 or older have been selected in the NFL Draft. The trio of Chris Weinke, Brandon Weeden, and John Beck are the only ones who went before the sixth round, according to ESPN Stats and Information Research.
There are three alone in this class: Hooker, Georgia’s Stetson Bennett (26 in October), and BYU’s Jaren Hall (turned 25 in March).
However, context matters. It’s not like Hooker was chasing his dreams of being a professional pitcher for the New York Yankees.
Hooker started his career at Virginia Tech in 2017 but never broke through and transferred to Tennessee to become the starter in Week 3 of 2021. All of a sudden, the records were falling as he set single-season marks for both completion percentage and passing efficiency for the school.
“For Hendon, coming back was maximizing his talent and refining his understanding of the game,” Heupel said. “He took a huge jump from the previous year. Although he had experience, he only played in our system for two years, so he was exposed to a lot of different things. That’s going to position him, when he goes to the next level, to soak up an NFL playbook and understand the whys.”
Injury and Age Aside, What Helped Hendon Hooker Is Also Hurting Him
That same offense that put Hooker on the map is possibly his biggest hindrance heading into the NFL Draft.
“Remember, this is a wide receiver-led offense,” said Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt. “That’s not a knock against Hendon Hooker, it just means that he’s gotta be on the same page, diagnose defenses in real-time, post-snap for those downfield reads from the wide receiver, and then he’s gotta be accurate and efficient throwing the ball into vertical zones and seams, and he does that really well.”
There’s a lot to like about Hooker’s film. He has a strong arm, he’s accurate, and he can rip away from tacklers in the pocket to make plays with his legs. The marquee domination against Alabama was the crown jewel of Hooker’s season, as he connected with Jalin Hyatt for 207 yards and five TDs to go a combined 21 of 30 for 385 yards and five TDs with one INT.
It cemented his Heisman candidacy and placed him squarely in the mix for the top-three ranking. But it also shinned a massive spotlight on the Tennessee offense.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel ran a version of the deep choice offense that made Baylor famous under its former coach, Art Briles. It’s a two-back run game with RPOs and wide receiver splits that literally push the field’s boundaries horizontally. One receiver on the perimeter is designated the choice option, in 2022, this was Hyatt, and the rest get open if possible, but the play is designed for a specific player to get the softest matchup.
You would see a combination of slot choices from a stacked formation, which generally meant a screen half the time for a quick 10+ yards, a ton of dagger concepts, and Tennessee purely wanting to put defenders on an island where someone like Hyatt could read the hips and leverage to then break off his route. So long as he and Hooker are on the same page, it’s an automatic six points, and don’t forget to collect $200 when you pass go.
But this is also an offense that’s viewed to be detrimental to a QBs development. There are no real answers or built-in adjustments against the blitz. It’s a one-read system with spacing you’ll never see in the NFL unless someone falls down. Therefore, it’s hard to get an accurate representation of how Hooker’s skills can translate other than what we have seen with his arm and legs.
Just don’t bring this up to Hooker as, like any player, he’ll be quick to defend himself.
“I can make any throw,” Hooker said. “The way we run our offense, the wide splits, those are all grown-men throws. I’m not throwing any five-yard outs. Those are all big-boy balls.
“I can’t help that defenders can’t guard my receivers. My job is to get them the ball,” Hooker said. “A lot of these questions about one-sided reads, we have pure progressions and routes. It’s not my fault that my first read is getting open.”
He’s got a point, you know.
Heupel has defended both Hooker and the offense, saying it is more complex than it appears.
“I’m not sure anybody in college football has more on their plate than Hendon does,” Heupel said. “Then, you throw in the tempo that we play at, you have got to be a quick decision-maker, you have got to recognize defensive structure extremely quickly. … He controlled the entire game on every single play. I think that puts him in a great position to be able to transition at the next level and handle all that’s coming at him.”
Heupel said Hooker’s intangibles will make him somebody’s franchise quarterback.
“I’ve never been around anybody that’s been a stronger or more impactful leader than Hendon Hooker is,” Heupel said. “Our program is not where it’s at today unless Hendon is a part of our locker room.”
From the First to Fifth and everything in between, Hendon Hooker Is This Year’s Wild Card
The internet went ablaze when Mike Tannenbaum of ESPN projected Hooker to be selected by the Seattle Seahawks with the fifth pick of the draft. But Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline noted, “There’s a lot to like about Hooker, but a top-10 pick is very ambitious. According to people I’ve spoken with, there’s a chance a team in the bottom half of Round 1 snatches him off the board.”
I personally wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into somewhat of a secret bidding war, given how Hooker racked up the frequent flyer miles making top 30 visits with the Texans, Packers, Colts, Commanders, Lions, Raiders, Saints, Giants, Buccaneers, and Titans.
With Young the apparent lock to go No. 1 overall, the rest of the QB class is a bit more up in the air, which could aid to Hooker’s benefit. The Texans are reportedly less than enthusiastic about Stroud, and while Richardson and Levis have been viewed as upside prospects, with some linking them inside the top five, the further they slip, the more likely it could be Hooker can squeeze himself into this range or vault them.
Additionally, if they go quicker than some might expect, a QB-desperate team might be willing to trade into the middle or back half of the first. I find it a likelier scenario that someone moves to acquire Hooker than him simply falling to whoever picks him. There’s too much noise at this point not to believe where there’s smoke; there’s fire.
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“You want to hear what teams think of Hendon Hooker?” NFL Network reporter James Palmer said on Steve Smith’s Cut to It podcast. “There are plenty of teams that have him above the bottom two that you mentioned (Richardson and Levis). There are plenty of teams that have him third on their list, right below those top two in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.”
According to Pauline, the Raiders currently have Hooker as the No. 3 quarterback on their draft board.
“In terms of which team could trade up, the Las Vegas Raiders are a potential destination. The Raiders presently have Hooker rated as the QB3 on their board and don’t believe their top two signal-callers (C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, in no exact order) have any chance of falling to the seventh pick of the draft. It would be a big surprise if Hooker falls past the Raiders at pick 38, and there’s a chance the team trades into the bottom third of Round 1 in order to take him.”
NFL front offices have varying confidence levels in their starting quarterbacks, and we learn these opinions at draft time. Perhaps it could be someone not even mentioned that is the surprise winner of the Hooker sweepstakes. We won’t know until it happens, but the odds appear greater that Hooker goes inside the top-40 picks than outside of it, with at least a 50/50 chance he hears his name called on Day 1.
One thing is for sure: Someone out there believes in Hooker and is ready to take the risk. From there, it’s up to Hooker to prove them right and everyone else wrong.