Former Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer up and left for Washington, and it seemed quarterback Jake Haener would follow. However, Haener opted out of the college football transfer portal and returned to the team. That makes a pick and prediction for the Fresno State vs. UTEP New Mexico Bowl game tricky, but let’s give it a shot!
Make sure to check out our pick and prediction for all the other bowl games being played today: the Independence Bowl, the Lending Tree Bowl, the Celebration Bowl, and the Boca Raton Bowl.
Fresno State vs. UTEP betting odds and trends
- Spread: Fresno State -11.5 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Moneyline: Fresno State -490, UTEP +360
The 9-3 Bulldogs have upset or battled with stellar teams this year, including a mere 7-point loss to Oregon, and victories over UCLA, Nevada, and San Diego State. However, that record was with DeBoer and Haener with the program. Haener is eligible to play in the bowl game, but in an apology video, he told Fresno State fans, “See you in ’22.”
On the other sideline, UTEP started the year 6-1 but went 1-4 over the final stretch. While the Miners’ 7-5 season doesn’t appear outstanding, we must look at the whole picture. UTEP hasn’t registered a seven-win season since 2014. Before then, they hadn’t recorded one since 2005. As you can see, the Miners aren’t used to success.
Under head coach Dana Dimel, the program produced 1-11, 1-11, and 3-5 seasons over the past three years. So a 7-5 finish is exceptional for the small Texas school. This game comes down to one factor: Fresno State’s QB. If Haener plays, the Bulldogs pull out the victory. If he doesn’t, things get a bit more interesting.
Who will be at the helm for the Bulldogs?
Redshirt freshman Logan Fife and true freshman Jaylen Henderson are the other options under center. Both have thrown some passes in garbage time this year, but neither impressed. Fife has an extra year in the program, while Henderson was the higher-rated recruit (three vs. two-star). Furthermore, Henderson owns the larger frame (6’3″, 205 pounds), is more athletic, and possesses a bigger arm.
But who really knows what interim head coach Lee Marks will do. Whoever is under center inherits an uber-talented supporting cast. WR Jalen Cropper is a gamer, making plays seemingly every time the ball is in his hands. Josh Kelly has proven to be a reliable pass catcher, while RBs Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims form an impressive backfield tandem.
Fresno State vs. UTEP prediction
UTEP will have to watch out for edge rushers Arron Mosby and David Perales, who have combined for 7 forced fumbles this year. The Bulldogs aren’t exceptional on the backend, but DaRon Bland and Evan Williams can capitalize on mistakes. Miners QB Gavin Hardison has flashed at times, but 17 TDs to 12 INTs at a 56% completion rate is hard to win big games with.
Luckily, Jacob Cowing is a game-wrecking receiver, totaling 7 touchdowns and 1,330 yards on just 67 receptions (19.9 average). Additionally, Ronald Awatt can keep the chains moving on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. DI Keenan Stewart, DE Praise Amaewhule, LB Tyrice Knight, and S Dy’vonne Inyang are stars on a defense that can make first-time starters pay.
In the end, I think UTEP pulls off the upset with Haener sitting. This late in the season, a new QB is just too much to overcome, especially against the 31st-ranked total defense. Plus, Fresno State may just want to get 2021 over with, while UTEP charges toward their first bowl appearance in seven years.
Fresno State vs. UTEP Prediction: UTEP 24, Fresno State 17