Who will get the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft? As we play through the games in Week 18, it’s down to just three teams — the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and Tennessee Titans.
Let’s take a look at what needs to happen for each team for them to secure the opportunity to select a player first overall or package it away for a plethora of draft picks.
Update: The Tennessee Titans have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. The Browns have the second pick, the Giants at No. 3, and the Patriots at No. 4.
What Are the New England Patriots’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
The Patriots’ SOS is 0.467, significantly below that of the Titans (0.515), Browns (0.544), and Giants (0.551). None of those three teams can finish Week 18 with a lower SOS than New England, meaning that if the Patriots lose to the Bills this week, they will clinch the No. 1 pick.
The highest SOS that New England can finish with is 0.478, which requires the following results to occur:
- The Cincinnati Bengals defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers
- The Chicago Bears defeat the Green Bay Packers
- The Los Angeles Chargers defeat the Las Vegas Raiders
If that scenario plays out, the lowest SOS that the Titans, Browns, or Giants can finish with is 0.516. Therefore, if the Patriots win, no one can jump them for the No. 1 pick.
However, if New England manages to defeat Buffalo on Sunday, it will lose the No. 1 pick after the Browns’ loss on Saturday in Baltimore. If the Patriots win, they needed the Titans, Browns, and Giants to also win to secure the No. 1 pick. Similarly, if the Patriots and Bills tie, New England needed the Browns, Titans, and Giants to all tie or win their games as well.
If the Patriots win or tie, the best they can do in terms of their draft pick is the No. 2 overall pick. Even then, they would need both the Titans and Giants to match or better their result.
The good news for New England is that they don’t have to worry about any of the teams who currently have four wins. The only four-win team that is even close to the Patriots in terms of SOS is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who cannot finish with a lower SOS than New England.
Our projections give the Patriots a 50-50 win probability over the Bills this week, which gives New England a 50% chance of finishing the season with the No. 1 pick in 2024.
What Are the Cleveland Browns’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
After their loss in Week 18, the Browns are currently sitting atop the projected 2025 NFL Draft order based on their 17.6 win percentage. However, that will all change if the Patriots or Titans lose on Sunday. They would both move to a 3-14 record and tie the Browns on win percentage.
When multiple teams are tied with the same winning percentage, the NFL Draft tiebreakers work by giving the highest pick to the team with the lowest SOS and the lowest pick to the team with the highest SOS.
In terms of the teams that can finish 3-14, that means the Patriots are first (0.467 SOS), the Titans second (0.515 SOS), the Browns third (0.544 SOS), and the Giants fourth (0.551 SOS).
Those SOS gaps are large enough that if all four teams lose, the order cannot change. The closest any two teams can get is the Browns and Giants, who could tie in terms of SOS. However, with New York having beaten Cleveland in Week 3, the Browns would have the higher pick of the two, as that is the next level on the NFL Draft tiebreaker ladder.
What this means is that the Browns’ scenario for the No. 1 pick is simple in theory. They need the Patriots and Titans to either win or tie in Week 18. In reality, that’s much more complex because New England and Tennessee may not be going all out to win in Week 18.
Both head coaches — Jerod Mayo and Brian Callahan — have said they will try to win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pass up points to go for it on fourth down more than they might have previously. We’ve seen teams who are hesitant to tank be more aggressive on third and fourth down than they might otherwise, which will alter their winning probability compared to a normal game.
Further complicating matters is that neither the Patriots nor Titans opponents have anything to play for in Week 18. The Buffalo Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and the Houston Texans have clinched the fourth spot. If both teams rest players, that will increase New England and Tennessee’s chances of winning in Week 18.
The Texans have said they won’t rest players but may well do so in the second half. Meanwhile, the Bills look set to start Josh Allen but rest other starters. Additionally, we have no idea how long Allen will play. Currently, our simulations give the Patriots a 50% chance of beating Buffalo and the Titans a 48% chance of defeating Houston.
This all means that, according to our metrics, the Browns have a 24% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick. They also now know they cannot pick any lower than third in the 2025 NFL Draft.
What Are the Tennessee Titans’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Entering Week 18, the Titans sit second in the projected 2025 NFL Draft order. They are tied with the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants in terms of win percentage, with all four having a 3-13 record.
The first NFL Draft tiebreaker for teams tied in terms of winning percentage is strength of schedule (SOS). The Titans’ SOS entering Week 18 is 0.515, which is the second lowest of the four teams, hence giving them the second pick as things stand. The Patriots have the first pick with a 0.467 SOS, the Browns are third at 0.540, and the Giants are fourth with an SOS of 0.551.
The good news for the Titans is that if they lose, they cannot fall any lower in the order than the second overall pick. The 0.025 difference between them and the Browns in terms of SOS is too much to be overhauled in Week 18, where traditionally, SOS shifts are small due to teams playing others within their division, negating many of the SOS changes.
However, the flip side of that is that if the Patriots lose, the Titans cannot overhaul the 0.048 difference in SOS. Therefore, the Titans would not be able to get to the first overall pick if the Patriots were to lose to the Buffalo Bills. If the Patriots tie or win against the Bills, the Titans would move into the No. 1 pick if they lose.
The unknown in all of this is what the Bills may look like on Sunday. They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, so they appear set to rest key players, boosting the Patriots’ chances of winning in Week 18. However, Josh Allen is expected to play as he looks to extend his 114-game starting streak, and also lay down a final marker in the MVP race. The question is whether he will play considerable time or just a few drives.
As of Friday, the sportsbooks still had the Bills as favorites to win (-135), but our internal projections put this game closer to 50-50. The Patriots pushed a Bills team at full strength all the way in Week 16, but despite Jerod Mayo saying they will play to beat the Bills, it is hard not to imagine the Patriots considering “tanking” to clinch the first pick.
As of Friday, our win probabilities give the Titans a 26% chance of clinching the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
If the Titans win, they cannot get the No. 1 overall pick, regardless of the result in Foxborough. Even if New England wins, the Titans still cannot overcome the SOS difference. The Titans are also likely to play a team in the Houston Texans that uses backups at some point. DeMeco Ryans said he would play his starters but did not confirm for how long. That is why our system gives the Titans a 48% chance of victory in Week 18.
The Titans could pick first if they tie with Houston. They would need the Patriots to win and the Browns or Giants to either tie or win. However, the odds of that are extremely low, given we have not had a single tie this season.
Victory for the Titans could see them drop from their currently projected second place in the 2025 NFL Draft order to as low as seventh.
Tennessee’s SOS of 0.515 is higher than the Jacksonville Jaguars (0.474), the Carolina Panthers (0.496), and the New York Jets (0.500), who all enter the week with four wins. If the Titans win and the Browns, Giants, Jaguars, Panthers, and Jets lose, the Titans will end up picking seventh.
The chances of all of that happening are as low as just 5%, but there is a path to the Titans dropping that far. Depending on the combination of results, the Titans could finish anywhere between first and seventh in the 2025 NFL Draft order.