There are more than a few NFL head coaches entering this season on the hot seat, having very little chance of keeping their jobs moving forward if their teams perform far below expectations this season.
But which coaches have the warmest seats in 2023? We take a look at the betting odds of the first NFL head coach to get fired.
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BetOnline has the odds for the first head coach to get fired, and the two co-favorites are Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles.
Here are the coaches at the top of the odds leaderboard:
- Mike McCarthy, Todd Bowles: +600
- Ron Rivera: +650
- Josh McDaniels: +700
- Kevin Stefanski, Dennis Allen: +900
- Matt Eberflus, Mike Vrabel: +1400
- Brandon Staley, Arthur Smith, Matt LaFleur, Sean McVay: +1600
McCarthy and Bowles are the two favorites for various reasons. Expectations are always high in Dallas despite not having advanced past the Divisional Round since 1995. In McCarthy’s three seasons in Dallas, the Cowboys have won just one playoff game, and there is speculation that Jerry Jones could be looking for a change if they have a disappointing playoff exit again this season.
With that said, it would be a shock to see the Cowboys get off to such a bad start that McCarthy gets fired midseason.
Nobody is expecting Bowles and the Buccaneers to return to the playoffs this year. After three seasons of Tom Brady, Tampa Bay now has one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL and is more likely to be in contention for the first pick of the NFL Draft than the postseason. Despite firing four different head coaches since 2011, the Buccaneers have never fired a coach during the season.
Of the other top favorites, Rivera and McDaniels seem the most likely to get fired this season. Rivera is entering his fourth season in Washington with a brand new ownership group that didn’t hire him. Barring a spectacular season, the expectation is that the Commanders will want to bring in their own guy after the season and move on from Rivera.
McDaniels is reportedly one of the highest-paid NFL head coaches, making $10 million per year. He signed a four-year deal in January 2022, and if he were to get fired, Las Vegas would owe him a lot of money. But Raiders owner Mark Davis has fired a coach midseason before, so it can’t be ruled out if they have a bad start.
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From there, the Browns are notorious for not being patient with their head coaches, and if they get off to a rocky start, then Stefanski’s seat can definitely get warm.
With the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, if the Saints somehow manage to struggle out of the gate, then Allen could easily take the fall in New Orleans.
Further down the list, Brandon Staley is an obvious candidate. However, it seems more likely the Chargers would fire him after the season if Los Angeles fails to win a playoff game, thus making it unlikely he loses his job before then — unless things go horribly wrong.
If there was a longshot who would be worth a potential flier, it would be New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh at +3300. Expectations are very high for Gang Green this season, but the Jets have a very difficult schedule to start the season, with their first six games against the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, and Eagles.
A poor start can’t be entirely ruled out, especially considering New York has many new players that might need time to get acclimated.
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