Hello, everybody. Here’s our final look at our NFL Week 6 predictions and picks for the remaining 13 games. The following NFL betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting sub-plots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half.
But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities. With that in mind, here are our final assessments of how each game might proceed.
Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Even at 3-2, San Francisco is officially a juggernaut. Their Week 1 loss to Chicago was due in no small measure to ugly weather that neutralized their advantage. The 49ers have the personnel on offense and defense to push Atlanta into the loss column. At the same time, this game could come down to the last possession. “Could” is the key. I’m leaning toward San Francisco to barely cover.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Change alert! What the heck is a “change alert”? Can we come up with a better name? Yes, that’ll be my top priority for next week.
So this betting line has narrowed slightly from a three-point spread earlier this week. Might not seem like a big deal, but it means if this game is tied late or goes to overtime, it’ll be a small boost for the favored Browns, who’d need a field goal to cover. Yes, this game should be close, and MVP candidate Nick Chubb could prove to be the difference, although Rhamondre Stevenson will keep things interesting.
Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
I’ve got Aaron Jones rebounding in this one, while presumably Breece Hall will continue to do his thing. After their seemingly shocking loss to the Giants, Green Bay looks vulnerable, and the Jets have enough talent on both sides of the ball to make this the most competitive Packers-Jets contest in at least two decades.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
Moneyline winner: Packers
Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
It’s been a little over 10 years since Jacksonville defeated Indy three straight times. Back then, the Jags’ newly minted franchise QB Blaine Gabbert defeated, in succession, Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, and rookie Andrew Luck.
MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 6
Can Trevor Lawrence and the considerably improved Jaguars vanquish the Colts for a third consecutive time on Sunday? Honestly, I doubt it. Jacksonville’s recent struggles notwithstanding, the Colts have had 10 days to prepare for this one. As bad as Matt Ryan has looked, I see this as a revenge game Indy cannot afford to lose.
Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Colts
Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
With Skylar Thompson set to make his first NFL start, I’m surprised this betting line hasn’t changed since earlier this week, when Tua Tagovailoa and/or Teddy Bridgewater were still possibilities.
The 4-1 Vikings haven’t always looked like a 4-1 team. But led by a rookie QB and two hobbled, otherwise elite WRs, it’s tough to see how the Dolphins will generate enough offense to keep up. My spread and moneyline predictions are switching from Miami to Minnesota.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
New Orleans Saints (+2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Change alert! (Ugh, terrible. I’ll come up with something better. Promise.)
The Saints were one-point underdogs earlier this week. They should be five-point underdogs. The Bengals have been battle-tested the past four weeks, escaping with a 2-2 record against four above-.500 squads. The Saints are an injury-ravaged team that can’t expect more Taysom Hill heroics.
Simply put, Cincy’s defense is much better than Seattle’s. They should hold the line against a mostly one-dimensional New Orleans offense (at least until Jameis Winston returns). And we have to expect Ja’Marr Chase to get back on track — in other words, the Bengals probably will game plan to get him going.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
New York Giants (+6) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As I wrote earlier, I did not have “4-1 Giants” on my 2022 bingo card. If you did, please mail me a self-addressed envelope, and I’ll mail back a “Rock Star” greeting card with your name featured prominently.
This game is tough to predict because Saquon Barkley at his best can keep the Giants cooking. But (“change alert!”) I’m switching allegiances from New York to Baltimore, trusting that Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews will overwhelm the Giants and cover the spread.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers (+8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Another fascinating contest, as Kenny Pickett became only the second regular-season quarterback since the start of last season to throw for 300+ yards against the fearsome Bills defense. The sky’s the limit, especially in this stacked offense. Tampa Bay looks a little more mortal than usual. This could be a surprisingly narrow Bucs win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Carolina has fired Matt Rhule. Of course, this franchise’s problems go beyond their former head coach. They’re planning to start their preseason No. 4 QB, P.J. Walker. Their recently re-signed franchise receiver DJ Moore looks like a role player. The injury-challenged Christian McCaffrey can’t keep carrying this team.
I like the Rams making adjustments and winning this one in style while establishing some semblance of a running game. They should have the luxury of plenty of possessions, thanks to (I’m predicting) at least four three-and-outs for the Panthers’ offense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Rams
Moneyline winner: Rams
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Change alert! (I’m starting to like it, actually. So bad, it’s good.) Seattle started the week as a three-point underdog, so I don’t love this narrowing line. But the fact is, I picked the Seahawks to win regardless.
Sticking with that prediction, on the assumption Kenneth Walker III picks up where Rashaad Penny left off, while Geno Smith continues his Comeback Player of the Year push. And the Cardinals’ backfield, which could see a heavy dose of Eno Benjamin, is no lock to keep pace with the surprisingly high-flying Seahawks.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
What a game! Kansas City has the edge in my book, and not only because they’re playing at home. The X-factor is their running game versus Buffalo’s defense. If the Chiefs can establish the suddenly elite Clyde Edwards-Helaire early and extend their drives, they can put pressure on the Bills to keep pace — rather than the other way around. And of course, Patrick Mahomes has enough weapons to capitalize.
It’s hard to bet against the Bills after their domination of the Steelers on Sunday. That said, Miami showed that Buffalo’s human a few weeks ago. Baltimore did the same the following week. Kansas City is at the same level, if not higher.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Penultimate change alert! This spread has jumped from minus-5 only a few days ago. That said, I love Philly winning by 10+ points, so the betting line doesn’t phase me. Dallas has held some subpar passing games in check recently. The Eagles are on an entirely different level, and the Cowboys are third to last in first downs. They have little room for error. That won’t cut it against a 5-0 team.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Monday, Oct. 17
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Final change alert! A slight narrowing to five points from six on Tuesday. Even better if, like me, you believe the Chargers will win by at least a touchdown. Russell Wilson’s shoulder pain and overall concerning play are the tips of the iceberg for a franchise that entered 2022 with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. LA should win this one handily, as Denver’s facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers